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Rainshadow

Here Comes The Rain(s) Again & Again. Another Wet Work Week 6/17-6/21. Throw In Some Severe Too.

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Going forward thru the next three days, there is a north & west emphasis and a new flash flood watch day:

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On 6/15/2019 at 10:53 PM, snowlurker said:

Old GFS: "now, do you believe me?"

I know you know the GFS is a pile of sperm whale excrement when it comes to predicting precipitation duration; just for verification purposes 🤢 PHL was suppose to have 21 three hour periods of measurable rain to this point this week based on the original posted GFS (not that subsequent runs were any better), the actual number is  3.  

 

Or to put it another way, one would have more accurate using the number of rain free three hour periods (4) as a prediction of rain occurring than the actual predicted three hour segments with rain.

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29 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I know you know the GFS is a pile of sperm whale excrement when it comes to predicting precipitation duration; just for verification purposes 🤢 PHL was suppose to have 21 three hour periods of measurable rain to this point this week based on the original posted GFS (not that subsequent runs were any better), the actual number is  3.  

 

Or to put it another way, one would have more accurate using the number of rain free three hour periods (4) as a prediction of rain occurring than the actual predicted three hour segments with rain.

 

 

You miss the GFS. Admit it.

 

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I know you know the GFS is a pile of sperm whale excrement when it comes to predicting precipitation duration; just for verification purposes 🤢 PHL was suppose to have 21 three hour periods of measurable rain to this point this week based on the original posted GFS (not that subsequent runs were any better), the actual number is  3.  

 

Or to put it another way, one would have more accurate using the number of rain free three hour periods (4) as a prediction of rain occurring than the actual predicted three hour segments with rain.

Sidenote: Isn't sperm whale excrement ambergris, which is valuable to the perfume industry?  Feels more like Sloth excrement. (Cue Tom's meme.)

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5 minutes ago, PreserveJon said:

Sidenote: Isn't sperm whale excrement ambergris, which is valuable to the perfume industry?  Feels more like Sloth excrement. (Cue Tom's meme.)

jurassic park deal with it GIF

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4 hours ago, cbelke said:

 

 

You miss the GFS. Admit it.

 

It never left. It is like moving a slob into a brand new spanking house and not expecting it to morph into a pig sty.  Yeah they changed the core, but same model physics (for now), same garbage pcpn duration results.

Another GEM:

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I came across a post from last September on the FV3:

dffdfddfdf.JPG.1b9571fd32eaad5151ca1768e575dfa9.JPG

 

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None of this takes away, when it does rain this afternoon thru tomorrow, it can pour, but sorry not constantly.

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1 hour ago, PreserveJon said:

Sidenote: Isn't sperm whale excrement ambergris, which is valuable to the perfume industry?  Feels more like Sloth excrement. (Cue Tom's meme.)

I worked with many former Marines and calling newbies lower than whale sh1t was a rite of passage. I was taking a version of it, didn't realize I ran into the perfume industry. I will stick with boring sloth excrement from now on. ;)

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Slight risk area growing for Thursday:

day2otlk_1730.gif.ead741c12f8c358de7889b153b5179ff.gif

...Middle Atlantic/Southeast...

   Central US upper trough is forecast to approach western OH - middle
   TN - AL by 18z Thursday  as strongest mid-level flow translates
   across the southern Appalachians toward the NC Outer Banks region by
   early evening. Associated surface front should prove convectively
   active through the period with thunderstorms expected to be ongoing
   at 20/12z from OH-KY-TN-northern AL. While a few storms may be
   strong at day break, strongest heating, leading to greater buoyancy,
   should occur from central PA, south across the Carolinas into GA.
   This corridor of increased instability should encourage robust
   convection within an increasingly sheared environment for organized
   thunderstorms. At this time it appears damaging winds will be the
   greatest risk, but some supercell/tornado threat is also expected
   ahead of the forced frontal convection.

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hopefully everything misses mt laurel so Tony's yard can dry out

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26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

hopefully everything misses mt laurel so Tony's yard can dry out

Mine too. It's a swamp, again.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

hopefully everything misses mt laurel so Tony's yard can dry out

Are the soils in a large majority of everyone's yards more adsorbent and poorer draining than mine? For each 40 comments of swamp yard, mine is a little wet (maybe). My 'hood is a former farm if that makes a difference.

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44 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

Are the soils in a large majority of everyone's yards more adsorbent and poorer draining than mine? For each 40 comments of swamp yard, mine is a little wet (maybe). My 'hood is a former farm if that makes a difference.

Luckily well-draining yard here.  I can mow the day after heavy rains.  My neighborhood is also on a former farm, like yours, fwiw.  I’ve been thoroughly enjoying the last year and a half or so of never needing to water plants!

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8 hours ago, rafpsu said:

Luckily well-draining yard here.  I can mow the day after heavy rains.  My neighborhood is also on a former farm, like yours, fwiw.  I’ve been thoroughly enjoying the last year and a half or so of never needing to water plants!

aaaaand 3.70” to drain off since yesterday evening.

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11 hours ago, snowlurker said:

Are the soils in a large majority of everyone's yards more adsorbent and poorer draining than mine? For each 40 comments of swamp yard, mine is a little wet (maybe). My 'hood is a former farm if that makes a difference.

I have mostly clay.  Worst of both worlds, doesn't percolate downward and then bakes quickly once it stops raining.  Marlton in the next township over was named after some type of clay in its soil.

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On 6/19/2019 at 8:25 PM, snowlurker said:

Are the soils in a large majority of everyone's yards more adsorbent and poorer draining than mine? For each 40 comments of swamp yard, mine is a little wet (maybe). My 'hood is a former farm if that makes a difference.

My yard drains well I have red clay/shale type soil. Then again my yard has a nice pitch to it for surface run off. I can usually mow the next day even after a big rain storm 

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

My yard drains well I have red clay/shale type soil. Then again my yard has a nice pitch to it for surface run off. I can usually mow the next day even after a big rain storm 

I usually have to wait a day to day and a half after a good soaking rain. So glad I don't have to go mudding in my grasshopper. Those rear wheels really chew up the turf.

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Most of my yard drains well. Red clay/shale, the Passaic formation. One exception is west side of house that does not get a lot of sun. Problem is slope of driveway means water from one of the gutters drains down to the end, years like last year took a toll. Long story short, no cheap way to redirect gutter. Would require a very expensive piece of hardscaping which I am not inclined to do.

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