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Rainshadow

Here Come The Rain(s) Again. Wet Work Week Of 6/10-6/14.

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Anomalous closed low and then trof traversing across the Central/Eastern U.S. = more rain.  Round one there is modeling consensus of a soggy period from Sunday night into Tuesday day.  There is decent potential for another soggy round centered around Thursday.  Modeling qpf in scenarios like this will overextend the duration but underdo the actual precipitation amounts.  Not that they will be high everywhere, but with convection, twice what the GFS is selling is easily doable within our area.  Here is the WPC prediction:

p168i.gif.91b35b00566b7bed1640ffd7cc3e1ab5.gif

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Anomalous closed low and then trof traversing across the Central/Eastern U.S. = more rain.  Round one there is modeling consensus of a soggy period from Sunday night into Tuesday day.  There is decent potential for another soggy round centered around Thursday.  Modeling qpf in scenarios like this will overextend the duration but underdo the actual precipitation amounts.  Not that they will be high everywhere, but with convection, twice what the GFS is selling is easily doable within our area.  Here is the WPC prediction:

 

 

 

 

 

The mud has cracks in it because its too dry now. We need about a foot of rain to correct it. NOT!!!!!

 

Related image

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

The mud has cracks in it because its too dry now. We need about a foot of rain to correct it. NOT!!!!!

 

Related image

Phase 5 of the MJO will be coming later this month and statistically there is decent correlation of it being a dry phase for us.  Phase 3 which we are in now is a wet one.

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The first precipitation shot has trended more Pennsylvania oriented.   The second one (around Thursday) is now predicted to be heavier.

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I can't filter out the first shot, so here is the second in two pieces.  This is with the anomalous deep trof:

 

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I could use some rain to help with watering a patch I seeded a couple of weeks ago. Also, will help potted dwarf cedar I have where the old Black Walnut was. She was taken down last year and her best wood will become a bedroom set.

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16 hours ago, rramblings said:

I could use some rain to help with watering a patch I seeded a couple of weeks ago. Also, will help potted dwarf cedar I have where the old Black Walnut was. She was taken down last year and her best wood will become a bedroom set.

Did you plant it into the old root mulch of the Walnut? Pines are pretty susceptible to black walnut

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These are off the night run.  Modeling trends are not getting wetter, but there is still convection in there both days and locally higher amoutns will occur.

d12_fill.gif.a9030aa0c83e83bfb4b69a82760d7b42.gif

95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

p120i.gif

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

ndfd_rain_pennsylvania_10.png.65e7b977351a23589e61907eaa37d512.png

Mowed the lawn, and kicked up dust in a couple spots. Played golf this morning and found some hard pan to hit off of on a few holes. 

Can't believe I am saying this, but I think we need some rain. 

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

Mowed the lawn, and kicked up dust in a couple spots. Played golf this morning and found some hard pan to hit off of on a few holes. 

Can't believe I am saying this, but I think we need some rain. 

locally the sun, stiff breeze & lower DP's really dried out the top layer of soil the past 2 days, dig down a few inches & it's still very wet

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Here in ORL, Florida.   They went from brush fires and bone dry going into the weekend to repeated rounds of thunderstorms with inches of rain with POP's of 60-80% for the next week.    Rainy season has come in with a vengeance.  

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Not looking like a widespread wash out.

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3 hours ago, cbelke said:

Not looking like a widespread wash out.

Great grass loving rain so far.

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15 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

locally the sun, stiff breeze & lower DP's really dried out the top layer of soil the past 2 days, dig down a few inches & it's still very wet

I noticed this as well.  The top layer of soil in our garden were bone dry, but once I dug my hands into the earth, there was some moisture down below.

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miserable day working outside today. This marine vomit can go to .....

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48 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Great grass loving rain so far.

Grass loves it, anyone having to work outside (Tom) would hate it.

Got .10" so far. 

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59 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

miserable day working outside today. This marine vomit can go to .....VAY.

 

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54 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Today:

fill_94qwbg.gif.b22a3a8ff08e9139197c4e15617ada11.gif

 

Next one:

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95ep48iwbg_fill.gif.19bf4e8ec4983f8dbdbba637e7ec3e4a.gif

I think we might be under 1" when all is said and done.

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

I think we might be under 1" when all is said and done.

Gotta watch that Thursday system.  That trof is pretty deep and even more neg tilted.  Not that it will be everywhere, but that has more heavy rain potential than this one ever had.

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Just now, Rainshadow said:

Gotta watch that Thursday system.  That trof is pretty deep and even more neg tilted.  Not that it will be everywhere, but that has more heavy rain potential than this one ever had.

Ok, I wasn't including the Thursday system. Good to know.

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24 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Ok, I wasn't including the Thursday system. Good to know.

Assuming the HRRR is a little over the top for anything later this afternoon/early this evening; the late night timing would diminish the convective coverage with this one.

Yeah generic TT(s) off the GFS are in the mid 40s for today and closer to 50 (500mb temps around -14C) on Thursday.

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Just hit or miss moderate rain. Just hit the quarter inch mark.  

. 25" in the bucket 

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