Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


Sign in to follow this  
Rainshadow

Memorial Day Weekend, A Warm Unofficial Start To Summer

Recommended Posts

The GFS's penchant for 90s (and soon to be 100s) aside,  a predicted SE ridge and ring of fire disturbances expected to pass northeast of us all currently add to a warm and relatively precip free look to this upcoming weekend.  Unlike this past weekend, I would not be surprised if a 90 occurs on some day.  I know both the GFS & EC are forecasting mid to upper 90s for Wednesday May 29th, at least on the EC's part, that was the hottest outlier of its ensembles members.   Saturday right now looks like the most pleasant of the three days with 80s very doable for Sunday & Monday.  Frontal boundary around those two days bring the threat for precip, but in typical summer fashion the models will overdo both the areal extent and duration of said occurrences.

aaaaaaaa.JPG.f2c9fb1cd79c082b4f4cc8bbe83315cb.JPG

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OP EC & UKMET look very good, GGEM the wettest. GFS a compromise. Scenario is basically moved up a day from last weekend. Getaway Friday very nice, Saturday an overnight CFP maybe too late for much activity, Sunday, warmer (closest threat to 90F), but becoming drier and then maybe Monday the wettest of the three days if the wave on the front is real.

 

z.JPG

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still looking the same? My family hosts their memorial day party on Sunday and the last few years seemed to be washout and cold 60s.

 

Looking forward to the 80s at least!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are headed to Chicago this weekend.  I have to attend a conference for part of Saturday (yes, I'm working on Memorial Day weekend!), but the trade-off is my company is giving me two nights right on the Magnificent Mile.  Weather looks decent, hopefully the storms stay isolated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, talonsmith said:

Still looking the same? My family hosts their memorial day party on Sunday and the last few years seemed to be washout and cold 60s.

 

Looking forward to the 80s at least!

Sunday looks like the warmest of the three days, best chance for a 90. It is also the best day for a thunderstorm. They still look hit/miss and our way would be toward or in the evening.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much difference in modeling consensus for this weekend. Saturday day nice. Saturday night/Sunday best chances for showers and thunderstorms, but looks scattered at best. Monday looks nice again.  Sunday the hottest with a run at 90 degrees, Saturday the coolest in the 70s and Monday mainly in the 80s.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know this board focuses here on Southeast PA, but would some with access to the models be able to tell me what the weather for Indianapolis, IN looks like on Sunday?

The forecast from the NWS for out there is really confusing to me. As I've mentioned before, I'm a big racing fan, and if there's one race a year I wish for no rain to affect it's the Indianapolis 500.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, mweav067 said:

I know this board focuses here on Southeast PA, but would some with access to the models be able to tell me what the weather for Indianapolis, IN looks like on Sunday?

The forecast from the NWS for out there is really confusing to me. As I've mentioned before, I'm a big racing fan, and if there's one race a year I wish for no rain to affect it's the Indianapolis 500.

Long story short.....not good.  A lot of precip in that part of the country on Sunday.

This was the 12Z GFS for 1 PM Sunday:

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know in Chicago, I think the worst of the heavy precip will thankfully be today...we are landing at O'Hare at 8 PM tonight.  Hoping the showers stay scattered tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Win some and lose some I guess. Thank you for the information. 

They did redo the track surface that allows them to dry it a lot faster (they claim an hour, I think it was about an hour and a half last Sunday) so if they get a 3 hour window they should still be able to get it in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, mweav067 said:

Win some and lose some I guess. Thank you for the information. 

They did redo the track surface that allows them to dry it a lot faster (they claim an hour, I think it was about an hour and a half last Sunday) so if they get a 3 hour window they should still be able to get it in. 

It doesn't read well; but there still could be a 3 hour window in there:

Today
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. West southwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tonight
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. North wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Memorial Day
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The dumbing down of weather forecasts continue on supposive smart web sites:

dsdsdsdsd.JPG.6d751c2ea6a837ffad04600de9c6206f.JPG

 

That's pretty close to where you live isn't it? :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How much stock should I uh... put in to the accuracy of the uh...  3K NAM?

Playing golf at Shawnee Resort on Sunday at 12:30 PM and the 3K NAM showing some t-storms right around 4 PM. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, cbelke said:

How much stock should I uh... put in to the accuracy of the uh...  3K NAM?

Playing golf at Shawnee Resort on Sunday at 12:30 PM and the 3K NAM showing some t-storms right around 4 PM. 

Unlike Mount Laurel, thunderstorms do occur in the Poconos.  But unless every model on this planet has it occurring at 4 pm, I wouldn't bank on that timing.  Sunday unfortunately is the greatest threat for rain in our area.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 

That's pretty close to where you live isn't it? :o

How can I begin.  Today is going to be Mostly Sunny.  There will be a huge precip free window on Sunday (warm frontal overrnight, cold frontal, hit/miss thunder late in the day).  There will be places that get nothing from either forcing.  Monday forecast, they are sniffing stale glue.  Tuesday again has the look of maybe thunder early in the day, but it is not a whole day affair even if my timing is off.  This site must just use the GFS "as is" with its 21 hrs of wronger than wrong perpetual convective rains; no way it can't get any dour(er).  When golf course personnel show me these icons, I want to go all pole bean ballistic on those sites.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

And now representing the other side, this is a new one I never heard.  I guess the supermarket cohoots contract was not working out:

https://deadspin.com/mike-francesa-warns-that-meteorologists-are-in-the-pock-1835004807

Surprised he stayed awake long enough to make that claim.

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Unlike Mount Laurel, thunderstorms do occur in the Poconos.  But unless every model on this planet has it occurring at 4 pm, I wouldn't bank on that timing.  Sunday unfortunately is the greatest threat for rain in our area.

 

Yeah, I figured as much. Just hoping the timing of any rain happens as I load the clubs back in to the car and start heading home.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

How can I begin.  Today is going to be Mostly Sunny.  There will be a huge precip free window on Sunday (warm frontal overrnight, cold frontal, hit/miss thunder late in the day).  There will be places that get nothing from either forcing.  Monday forecast, they are sniffing stale glue.  Tuesday again has the look of maybe thunder early in the day, but it is not a whole day affair even if my timing is off.  This site must just use the GFS "as is" with its 21 hrs of wronger than wrong perpetual convective rains; no way it can't get any dour(er).  When golf course personnel show me these icons, I want to go all pole bean ballistic on those sites.

These Yahoo (literally) weather forecasts get better every day. 😣

 

dffddffd.JPG

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/25/2019 at 8:53 AM, Rainshadow said:

It doesn't read well; but there still could be a 3 hour window in there:

Today
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. West southwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tonight
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South southwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. North wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Memorial Day
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Turns out the weather ended up cooperating quite nicely out there and helped produce one exciting race.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...