Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


Sign in to follow this  
Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion, Because Tom <3 It Hot. Summer Analogs On Page 2.

Recommended Posts

Oo Man, looks like July is gonna be a torch.

 

ring of fire look here, as we are on the eastern extent of the ridge. (Obviously this is smoothed). 

 

Can it be September yet?!

87E26607-AAFD-4429-A2D8-2AAB92942B2A.png

55AACB45-1DFF-48E2-BC05-A39FCE2D5EC0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Oo Man, looks like July is gonna be a torch.

 

ring of fire look here, as we are on the eastern extent of the ridge. (Obviously this is smoothed). 

 

Can it be September yet?!

87E26607-AAFD-4429-A2D8-2AAB92942B2A.png

55AACB45-1DFF-48E2-BC05-A39FCE2D5EC0.png

We'll have the same stinkin pattern in September if the last several Septembers are any proxy.   GFS 100+ aside, next week looks pretty hot. Not a great sign at all when EPS is chrning low 90s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/6/2019 at 8:47 PM, tombo82685 said:

ANyways, just looked at the eps h5, and yea it looks pretty toasty. While there is some sort of nw flow look, the flow is pretty west to east. Granted maybe we benefit with not a ton of high dews with the typical bermuda high type setup. But this look as downslope westerly flow dry heat look to me. I'll wait for Gigi-heat to confirm

The eps actually cooled it off a little since this post. Low 90s seem like a given not seeing anything mid 90s plus right now for this coming weekend into start of next week. Still under some nw/wnw flow so dews shouldn’t be horrendous. They do offer a chance of mid 90s middle next week before they cool down a bit as a bit more pronounced trough develops over northeast but still high 80s to near 90 in that timeframe. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The eps actually cooled it off a little since this post. Low 90s seem like a given not seeing anything mid 90s plus right now for this coming weekend into start of next week. Still under some nw/wnw flow so dews shouldn’t be horrendous. They do offer a chance of mid 90s middle next week before they cool down a bit as a bit more pronounced trough develops over northeast but still high 80s to near 90 in that timeframe. 

Don't you wish the 00z 9th GEFS comes to fruition;  15 consecutive days of 90+ starting today. :blink2:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway as far as I know it is still the old GEFS even if it is the new GFS (not that it is that much better with pez dispensing mid 90s to 100s).  Stronger 92L on the Euro is keeping the Rockies heat ridge from repositioning in the Plains thru the middle of next week.  I'd still be more shocked with low 90s as a top next week (7/14-7/20) than upper 90s.  OP GFS La la la la la land look looks better for us, not so great for Greg.  At least no hail.

gfs_z500a_us_55.png.b90b4ef564326c20714650303af3b2b6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Don't you wish the 00z 9th GEFS comes to fruition;  15 consecutive days of 90+ starting today. :blink2:

Well I’m listening to Christmas songs right now while changing cups. So I’m in the cold and snow realm. Not really that outlandish that 90 streak. Eps say the same pretty much. Mostly a lot of 90-92 type stuff. But next week will probably have some mid 90sbatleat depending on tropical entity 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Well I’m listening to Christmas songs right now while changing cups. So I’m in the cold and snow realm. Not really that outlandish that 90 streak. Eps say the same pretty much. Mostly a lot of 90-92 type stuff. But next week will probably have some mid 90sbatleat depending on tropical entity 

90-92 is pretty much becoming the new July normal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Well I’m listening to Christmas songs right now while changing cups. So I’m in the cold and snow realm. Not really that outlandish that 90 streak. Eps say the same pretty much. Mostly a lot of 90-92 type stuff. But next week will probably have some mid 90sbatleat depending on tropical entity 

GEFS ensemble mean for day 1 (today) is 94F, that pretty much tells everyone all one needs to know right there.  Because the Euro (and GGEM) has it, it corroborates a hot week next week, but all the GEFS does and will do between now until mid September is forecast non stop 90s beyond day 5. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Well I’m listening to Christmas songs right now while changing cups. So I’m in the cold and snow realm. Not really that outlandish that 90 streak. Eps say the same pretty much. Mostly a lot of 90-92 type stuff. But next week will probably have some mid 90sbatleat depending on tropical entity 

Then again too, I don't understand the wxmodel GEFS PHL mean of 94F for today, when the EMC site has a more reasonable 86F, applying standard correction of +3F would render an 89F which will be close.

w.JPG.d4677593d1dd512752c0aeb1444e0749.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Then again too, I don't understand the wxmodel GEFS PHL mean of 94F for today, when the EMC site has a more reasonable 86F, applying standard correction of +3F would render an 89F which will be close.

 

not sure, honestly i don't even look at the gefs really

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

we didn't even get a dew pt flush today like I was thinking. Gfs at one point had 50s, yet we are sitting in the mid 60s

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

we didn't even get a dew pt flush today like I was thinking. Gfs at one point had 50s, yet we are sitting in the mid 60s

Better than dews in the upper 70s, says the guy living at the foot of the piedmont above the Chesapeake Basin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PreserveJon said:

Better than dews in the upper 70s, says the guy living at the foot of the piedmont above the Chesapeake Basin.

Yea I' mean it's def better than 75, but mid to upper 60s isn't refreshing either

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While this weekend has cooled a bit from earlier looks, next week is getting hotter as it looks like any tropical system isn't going to help us out. Mid 90s looking likely right now with maybe so upper 90s. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

While this weekend has cooled a bit from earlier looks, next week is getting hotter as it looks like any tropical system isn't going to help us out. Mid 90s looking likely right now with maybe so upper 90s. 

Don't stop there.... 🤢

 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_44.png

index.png

There is an obvious superadiabatic issue going on here below 1000mb, nevertheless the predicted 850mb "as is" would be 98F or 99F for a high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Don't you wish the 00z 9th GEFS comes to fruition;  15 consecutive days of 90+ starting today. :blink2:

Well on the plus side it was already wrong on day 1 of the forecast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

While this weekend has cooled a bit from earlier looks, next week is getting hotter as it looks like any tropical system isn't going to help us out. Mid 90s looking likely right now with maybe so upper 90s. 

Because of the stronger tropical system it has, the end of next week solution almost looks like a phasing of heat between the Bermuda Ridge (stronger and farther west because it is stronger) and something going over the top of the Rockies heat ridge.  UKMET is even stronger with the Bermuda Ridge.  There is something about 7/20-7/21 that likes to be hot.  Not that I totally buy it at this point, but at least the Euro would bring cooling when 92L eventually wraps around in its world.

aaaaaaa.JPG.63a6053172d4dd7a1f14c25d58bc86ed.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rather MEH on heat next week, just looks like run of the mill of what we have been seeing so far. Low 90s maybe a day getting close to 94 or so. Just enough troughiness hanging around the northeast to keep most of the big heat in the plains and rockies. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Rather MEH on heat next week, just looks like run of the mill of what we have been seeing so far. Low 90s maybe a day getting close to 94 or so. Just enough troughiness hanging around the northeast to keep most of the big heat in the plains and rockies. 

Probably still matters how Barry goes.  There could be a day or two that is scorchy pending its track, whether or not it rains on us.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw this on Twitter but big change on gefs in Lala land. We take!!!

9A21C912-13E0-4E5F-8BF5-8EED542EBDF2.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Saw this on Twitter but big change on gefs in Lala land. We take!!!

9A21C912-13E0-4E5F-8BF5-8EED542EBDF2.png

The first sign of the apocalypse. 

 

Ok it is just the change, not a raw number. Apocalypse on hold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the day for mid 90s is Wednesday. After that Barry impacts may limit heat 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like the day for mid 90s is Wednesday. After that Barry impacts may limit heat 

This is can kick territory, but they have had all this set-up of the Rockies ridge going into the Plains with a pretty strong salvo from the Rockies ridge coming across our area.  At one time it was the weekend, but now because of their evolution it has been can kicked to the first half of the week of the 21st.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

This is can kick territory, but they have had all this set-up of the Rockies ridge going into the Plains with a pretty strong salvo from the Rockies ridge coming across our area.  At one time it was the weekend, but now because of their evolution it has been can kicked to the first half of the week of the 21st.

The eps don't seem as bullish with that, looks like a day or so of heat for the 21st timeframe but it looks like we still bring in some northwest flow to keep us out of the bad stuff. Then it looks like the trough retrogrades westward off atlantic. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The eps don't seem as bullish with that, looks like a day or so of heat for the 21st timeframe but it looks like we still bring in some northwest flow to keep us out of the bad stuff. Then it looks like the trough retrogrades westward off atlantic. 

Lol for the 20th right now, GFS is 100, Euro is 80.  Truth though is probably in the 90s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...