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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion, Because Tom <3 It Hot. Summer Analogs On Page 2.

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1 hour ago, mshaffer526 said:

I'm sure it won't last long, but I am enjoying the lack of a strong heat signal this far into June.

July is what it is, but right now we are in warmer June phases (5, 6) for the MJO even if the correlations are pretty weak.  Mike Ventrice's site outlook has the MJO remaining pretty stout and phase 8 even in July has a strong statistical correlation of being cooler along the east coast.  So this may add some credence to a relatively cooler start once we get into July. Next week does look pretty warm/hot.  The high behind the Tue "cfp" is coming from the central part of the country, so it is going to be a pretty tough sell to convince me there is not a 90 in there next week.

 

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On 6/20/2019 at 5:53 PM, tombo82685 said:

love how we keep can kicking the 90s. Early next week was looking like 90s, now eps 2m raw numbers are low 80s, which would equate to mid 80s. Lets keep this going.

That didn't last long. EPS now bring first heat wave of the season into the area later next week, ugh

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

That didn't last long. EPS now bring first heat wave of the season into the area later next week, ugh

I'll be in Yellowstone, they just got 8" of snow yesterday.

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On 6/22/2019 at 1:49 PM, cbelke said:

I'll be in Yellowstone, they just got 8" of snow yesterday.

Have fun Chris. Pictures?

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2 minutes ago, rramblings said:

Have fun Chris. Pictures?

Oh yes. Lot's of pictures coming in the next couple of weeks.

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On 6/22/2019 at 1:49 PM, cbelke said:

I'll be in Yellowstone, they just got 8" of snow yesterday.

The first week of July not looking so great either. We get a brief break Sun/Mon and then the spillover effect from the central comes ridge brings us more 90s if it is close to reality as the 4th of July week progresses. 

Conus, not comes, not coins. Autospellcheck (which became editorialize) stinks.

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Yeah it is still looking like the first week of July into 4th of July weekend looks toasty. After that there are signs of a cooler regime, but this is la la land territory. The one positive I do see we are heading toward phase 8 in the MJO and in July it is still a cooler phase for us.  This assumes it will have some teeth to it.

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah it is still looking like the first week of July into 4th of July weekend looks toasty. After that there are signs of a cooler regime, but this is la la land territory. The one positive I do see we are heading toward phase 8 in the MJO and in July it is still a cooler phase for us.  This assumes it will have some teeth to it.

We all know the track record of the weeklies, but they are showing that as well. 2m anoms mainly normal to a hair below normal into mid august. 

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8 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

Euro is indicating wet weather during extended 4th weekend,  we shall see

Meanwhile the GFS gives you this:

gfs_T2m_neus_35.png.3f7192b5bbc7412bf5c66bba88d5ef8e.png

You are welcome.  (At least this new GFS knows Paul never hits 90,  PHL 104, but Paul only 88.)

 

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42 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Meanwhile the GFS gives you this:

 

You are welcome.  (At least this new GFS knows Paul never hits 90,  PHL 104, but Paul only 88.)

 

I'll take the over on 104

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On 6/28/2019 at 9:32 AM, tombo82685 said:

I'll take the over on 104

Long term 00z GEFS does not look that bad.  Above normal 500mb heights only from July 3rd-7th (run goes thru the 14th).  EPS does get warmer again at the end of its run, but that is la la land even for it. 

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

 

Don't worry - it'll flip on December 1st...

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00z/5th GEFS keeps us in northwest flow with the heat ridge fairly far west.  We get a a day or two of above normal 500mb heights before they return to normal.  This looks more like low 90s type heat, if any.  EPS is fairly toasty the last several days of its run, would be low 90s with them.

 

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9 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

00z/5th GEFS keeps us in northwest flow with the heat ridge fairly far west.  We get a a day or two of above normal 500mb heights before they return to normal.  This looks more like low 90s type heat, if any.  EPS is fairly toasty the last several days of its run, would be low 90s with them.

 

I hope the EPS are wrong at the end. You know you're in trouble when days 13-15 are in the low 90s raw 2m's that far out. Hurts just looking at it

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I hope the EPS are wrong at the end. You know you're in trouble when days 13-15 are in the low 90s raw 2m's that far out. Hurts just looking at it

88-90 on last night's EPS for the 14th thru the 20th, not looking good.  500mb heights (again dollar cost averaging so who really knows) not that high & it looks like we remain in some sort of northwest flow, maybe lower dew points?   GEFS (WM site) same period has 91-97F, but then again it has a 98F for a PHL high for today.  So if I were to apply a 5F correction that would be 86F-91F.   Near climo hottest time of year, so what else is new.  A summer victory is now having a July with an average temperature of less than 80F.

 

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

This 12z GFS run is going to have some 100 degree days in it.

 

tenor.gif

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57 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

 

tenor.gif

We are not Virginia, but we are willing to learn.  Never knew there was that much steamy asphalt there...

433443.JPG.7f40e3f687014492a4035b3caa29b7a5.JPG

index.png

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

We are not Virginia, but we are willing to learn.  Never knew there was that much steamy asphalt there...

 

 

can you please tell the euro to stop dropping 97s next weekend

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ANyways, just looked at the eps h5, and yea it looks pretty toasty. While there is some sort of nw flow look, the flow is pretty west to east. Granted maybe we benefit with not a ton of high dews with the typical bermuda high type setup. But this look as downslope westerly flow dry heat look to me. I'll wait for Gigi-heat to confirm

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27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

ANyways, just looked at the eps h5, and yea it looks pretty toasty. While there is some sort of nw flow look, the flow is pretty west to east. Granted maybe we benefit with not a ton of high dews with the typical bermuda high type setup. But this look as downslope westerly flow dry heat look to me. I'll wait for Gigi-heat to confirm

I'll take 92 with a 65 DP over 88 with a 76 DP any day.    The last few days have been atrocious.

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

ANyways, just looked at the eps h5, and yea it looks pretty toasty. While there is some sort of nw flow look, the flow is pretty west to east. Granted maybe we benefit with not a ton of high dews with the typical bermuda high type setup. But this look as downslope westerly flow dry heat look to me. I'll wait for Gigi-heat to confirm

Yeah the period of July 14th-20th is getting uglier by the computer run.  Even if the GFS forecast of 101F doesn't work, forecasting 100s pretty much has meant 90s in past summers.  The GEFS switch has been for more of a zonal and less of a nw 500mb flow with the heat ridge in the Plains vs the Rockies. While all the models like cooking the books in July, seeing plus 90F highs show up this early for this far out even on the EPS is not encouraging at all.

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MJO looks bifurcated right now with double vel potential maxes in eastern Pacific & Africa.  Anyway ignoring the GEFS usual it is going nowhere brain freeze output, an upcoming phase 3 has a high correlation for northeast heat.  Don't know if we can be in phase 3 next week already, but it could very well be a case of pay me now (week of 7/14) or pay me later (week of 7/21).   Not that posting about a true heat wave in July is really going out on a limb these days.

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