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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion, Because Tom <3 It Hot. Summer Analogs On Page 2.

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The only above 500mb heights outlooked by the GEFS past the current pattern (which isn't warm because highest anomalies are northeast of us) is early on Father's Day week.  The run goes through 6/23.  This does have collaboration with the EPS which has low 80s for highs at PHL (adjusted would be a 90 threat).  After that the EPS remains relatively warm with low 80s for highs.  Warmer MJO phases are on the way, plus heck it is climo, so this does have legs.

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The signal for a warmer to probably sometimes hot Father's Day week is gaining some legs as the main trof is outlooked to be in the northern plains and the SE ridge flexing some muscle.  Even under a better case scenario, the flow is still zonal, which is above normal this time of year.  It (EPS) looks better the ensuing week, but this is in la la la la la land.

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00z OP GFS was a departing shot outlier, but the signal remains for many near 90(s) next week:

78778778.JPG.92d8148aea06e17cb36f0540700ccdf5.JPG

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I am no fan of 90° weather, but it's getting to be that time of the year where I won't complain about the occasional day in that neighborhood. It's really the mid-90s and beyond that makes me wilt.

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15 hours ago, greg ralls said:

I am no fan of 90° weather, but it's getting to be that time of the year where I won't complain about the occasional day in that neighborhood. It's really the mid-90s and beyond that makes me wilt.

Yeah mid 90s are a no go for anything outdoors except for the shore. I was sweating like mad shoveling my yards of dirt the in the 80s day in April, so for Tom, not too many great working days regardless. 

Anyhow, the first end of next week (Monday) still has 90s potential, but the back end of the week has trended not as hot on last night's run.

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Was in Orlando last week and over the weekend.   Took a 10 mile hike in a park (Wekiwa Springs) just outside the city on Friday.   Was counting on the daily storms that have typically started just after lunch to cool things off somewhat.    Didn't happen that day - had some cloudiness during the midday, then the sun returned and about did me in.    Felt first signs of heat stroke.   Barely made it back to the car and the thermometer showed 96 degrees - presume heat index was 105-108.   Note to self - not again...

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17 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

Was in Orlando last week and over the weekend.   Took a 10 mile hike in a park (Wekiwa Springs) just outside the city on Friday.   Was counting on the daily storms that have typically started just after lunch to cool things off somewhat.    Didn't happen that day - had some cloudiness during the midday, then the sun returned and about did me in.    Felt first signs of heat stroke.   Barely made it back to the car and the thermometer showed 96 degrees - presume heat index was 105-108.   Note to self - not again...

Treading dangerous ground there, but glad to hear that you were okay in the end. Once you have experienced heat stress/exhaustion, you are more susceptible to it in the future.

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17 hours ago, snowlurker said:

Treading dangerous ground there, but glad to hear that you were okay in the end. Once you have experienced heat stress/exhaustion, you are more susceptible to it in the future.

Either that, food poisoning, or both, occurred to me in July 1995. I felt awful for a week after that.  Ever since then I have been careful anytime the temps get above 90 (and also making sure I microwave anything with meat in it long enough for it to burst into flames).

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Speaking of heat the 00z GEFS had a prolonged period of above normal 500mb heights from June 22nd thru its end on the 29th.  Hottest signal on June 22nd-23rd. Then, this is very angering, the 06z GEFS nearly backed off on it completely.  Ensembles should not be that bouncy.

The EPS for its part the week of June 23rd looks pretty warm also.  It did back of on the 2nd half of Father's Day week which once looked sustained warm also.  The SE ridge is there and any of its troffing is pretty far to the west over the Conus/NOAM.  At least we remain in the westerlies which implies some cfp(s) should come thru even if they lose much of a thermal impact which I suppose is better than none.

The MJO is heading toward warmer phases, so this does make corroborative sense.

 

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On 6/14/2019 at 8:54 AM, Rainshadow said:

Speaking of heat the 00z GEFS had a prolonged period of above normal 500mb heights from June 22nd thru its end on the 29th.  Hottest signal on June 22nd-23rd. Then, this is very angering, the 06z GEFS nearly backed off on it completely.  Ensembles should not be that bouncy.

The EPS for its part the week of June 23rd looks pretty warm also.  It did back of on the 2nd half of Father's Day week which once looked sustained warm also.  The SE ridge is there and any of its troffing is pretty far to the west over the Conus/NOAM.  At least we remain in the westerlies which implies some cfp(s) should come thru even if they lose much of a thermal impact which I suppose is better than none.

The MJO is heading toward warmer phases, so this does make corroborative sense.

 

It looks like last night's GEFS might have been an aberration.  This morning's 00z run really had no above normal 500mb heights as far east as us.  It does set up the heat ridge in the southern Plains & Rockies vs a SE ridge.  Time will tell, it is la la land and most of the centrtal & eastern conus has been wet.  At anyrate this would be a ring of fire approach for us if close. 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_54.png.918b7b1d8b9470c32aeb612dd8095618.png

 

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21 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

It looks like last night's GEFS might have been an aberration.  This morning's 00z run really had no above normal 500mb heights as far east as us.  It does set up the heat ridge in the southern Plains & Rockies vs a SE ridge.  Time will tell, it is la la land and most of the centrtal & eastern conus has been wet.  At anyrate this would be a ring of fire approach for us if close. 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_54.png.918b7b1d8b9470c32aeb612dd8095618.png

 

EPS look the same, no 90s but temps in the low to mid 80s with constant storms everyday. NW flow events. 

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Difference for next week between the GFS & GGEM/EC.  GFS wants to bring non stop 90s, while the latter say not so fast (if at all).

12z OP EC was warmer yesterday.  GFS may be right, but wrong about the thermals; if this week is as wet as it is forecast to be, the well into the 90s is lolz.  It has 94F for a predicted high this Wenesday & :facepalm: 100F the next day.

 

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It is not necessarily about the pattern (although that could be wrong too), but the details are ignoring what even it is forecasting this week.  We are getting to those warmer MJO phases.  The more things change...

 

gem_T2m_neus_30.png

gfs_T2m_neus_30.png

icon_T2m_neus_59.png

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Next week's work week GFS's heat.  The EPS is not cool, but its inferred high temps as of now would be mid 80s to around 90, not Lady GaGa well into the 90s like the FV3.  Given what is occurring this week (and also the GFS being on an island), this makes more sense.

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Next week's work week GFS's heat.  The EPS is not cool, but its inferred high temps as of now would be mid 80s to around 90, not Lady GaGa well into the 90s like the FV3.  Given what is occurring this week (and also the GFS being on an island), this makes more sense.

If you wanted to use the 50% percentile as a comparison, the GFS MOS is running about 5F warmer than the EPS for next week.  The red dot was the OP GFS predicted max temp for next THU. 

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Six days away, not exactly la la land.  I can see this going toward the GFS solution, but any hope for thermal sanity from this version of the GFS has left the yard; might not ever been in the yard.  When the hot to trot legacy GFS (pivotal map) is lower, one is in a heap of thermal trouble.  Well at least the 100 degree thread will get alot of action this summer. :blink2: Hot as he!! during summer, and sitting on Neptune in winter.

 

gem_T2m_neus_26.png

gfs_T2m_neus_26.png

icon_T2m_neus_51.png

dfdffdf.JPG

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Models are settling closer to the GFS solution of a hot/borderline hot next work week.  At least on the EMC & Meteostar site a highest of 93F is not an outlandish thought.  Not sure how TTidbits or pivotal are getting higher max(s).  Anyway EPS for PHL Mon-Fri is 85-87 all three days, normally means 88-90 which is where the OP is living at the moment.  Kind of a weak CFP Mon nightish and a (la la la) more stronger looking one at the end of the week.   I guess if there is an upside to this, it doesn't look as wet.

 

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00z GEFS has above normal 500mb heights over our area during the last week of June (23rd-30th) as this -NAO W vestige pattern unwinds.  The SE Ridge is outlooked to retrograde into the southern Rockies and set up a home there.  Another -NAO spike later next week eventually leads to a rex look over the NW atlantic that brings near normal heights back into our area during the la la land area of this run in early July.

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The 00z run of the EPS was slightly cooler than the day run and adjusting for its bias would probably keep PHL out of the 90s most days next week.  Last night's rain is not going to hurt that cause.

 

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I don't like the way the GFS based MOS is pretty much a slave to the OP.  It is pretty much the tail wagging the dog.  It should be the opposite, it should be smelling the rat.  I don't know if that observed rain finally gave the GFS an epiphany (gee, you know, all that rain would make it harder to go deep into the 90s) or if the 06z run was just an abberation and it will go back to pez dispensing mid to upper 90s with the 12z run. 

00z:

1.JPG.4f9d70049885b689e28287201be90541.JPG

06z:  

2.JPG.c99f7756b4f8d8d8e342a748e3f667c9.JPG

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love how we keep can kicking the 90s. Early next week was looking like 90s, now eps 2m raw numbers are low 80s, which would equate to mid 80s. Lets keep this going.

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

love how we keep can kicking the 90s. Early next week was looking like 90s, now eps 2m raw numbers are low 80s, which would equate to mid 80s. Lets keep this going.

Gotta figure a day will sneak in there with a 90 whether it is Monday or Tuesday just by the laws of averages.  The last time there were no 90s in PHL in June was 1982.  But overall this is a better than yesterday which looked like 88-91 the entire work week (or well into the 90s if you'd like to :wub: your favorite GFS 2m temp forecasts).

 

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12 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Gotta figure a day will sneak in there with a 90 whether it is Monday or Tuesday just by the laws of averages.  The last time there were no 90s in PHL in June was 1982.  But overall this is a better than yesterday which looked like 88-91 the entire work week (or well into the 90s if you'd like to :wub: your favorite GFS 2m temp forecasts).

 

The 90s potential can kick has been moved to the second half of next week which is still an improvement vs a 90 or so every day of next week. 

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I'm sure it won't last long, but I am enjoying the lack of a strong heat signal this far into June.

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