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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion, Because Tom <3 It Hot. Summer Analogs On Page 2.

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worst time of the year imo. Under performing storms, over-performing dews. 

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Nothing more challenging than long range forecasts! 

I think we have an interesting some ahead with the state of the El-Nino and tropical activity. 

All the analogs next two weeks suggest warmth to end the month. And it could last longer. 

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Nice battle for next weekend going on. Gfs on the cooler temps parade with some rain chances, which I hope is right. While the euro is low to mid 90s which I hope isn't right. EPS are mid way point but more of a lean towards the gfs in terms of temps

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34 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Nice battle for next weekend going on. Gfs on the cooler temps parade with some rain chances, which I hope is right. While the euro is low to mid 90s which I hope isn't right. EPS are mid way point but more of a lean towards the gfs in terms of temps

It will be the Euro just because you mentioned it. 

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5 minutes ago, cbelke said:

It will be the Euro just because you mentioned it. 

O yea I know. I hope not or there goes my holiday weekend

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Nice battle for next weekend going on. Gfs on the cooler temps parade with some rain chances, which I hope is right. While the euro is low to mid 90s which I hope isn't right. EPS are mid way point but more of a lean towards the gfs in terms of temps

Well you know the GFS couldn't stay cool for that long.  It's the scorpion crossing the river on the frog's back.

5.JPG.ffd6c2c37cd4851a745990475ccbf40b.JPG

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no need to even look at the timestamp, you know it's thunderstorm season in Lower Bucks when you see a map like this

off to another dreadful start this year, would need an entire zoo of Tombo's yawning animals to correlate to convective season in Lower Bucks

gfs_apcpn_neus_40.png.a67d9f5d043472c4b7bfc8a301ab1bf0.png

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At least in terms of wetness, aside from the far SE, most of the CONUS has been wetter than normal the last 90 days which is encouraging at least from a start to keep a heat ridge from feeding upon itself.  I don't know if that SE ridge popping up can be assisted by what is going on in FL/GA, we will see going forward.  Alot of the GFS fantasy 90s fade as we get in closer to forecast time.  Of course some of this is business as usual for that model, but at least in a backhanded sense it is encouraging to see most of them get purged even before they leave la la land.

90dTDeptUS.png.a33e05d778ef40686fa86b004ca7a8ff.png

90dPDeptUS.png.bc29d7fbee068432cb845fec76e85bf5.png

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6 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

no need to even look at the timestamp, you know it's thunderstorm season in Lower Bucks when you see a map like this

off to another dreadful start this year, would need an entire zoo of Tombo's yawning animals to correlate to convective season in Lower Bucks

 

Hence why I hate this time of year. Storms suck, and heat and high dews over perform. 

 

1311246801_cute_baby_sloth_yawns.gif

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Aw man, I love the boiling black sky before a good thunderstorm or photogenic mammatus. I hear ya on the high dews & anything above the mid-80s for temps though.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Hence why I hate this time of year. Storms suck, and heat and high dews over perform. 

 

1311246801_cute_baby_sloth_yawns.gif

92e7339dfb38594cf08acb56e969afe6.gif.942ccc75dbf9f82738d51385aa2ef5cb.gif

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6 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

 

none of that for you. Your yard needs to dry out

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

none of that for you. Your yard needs to dry out

This morning is going to be my first full cut of our backyard without creating 3 inch deep ruts.

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00z May 22nd GEFS non above normal 500mb heights June 1st & June 4th thru end of run on the 6th.

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On 5/22/2019 at 7:40 AM, Rainshadow said:

00z May 22nd GEFS non above normal 500mb heights June 1st & June 4th thru end of run on the 6th.

12z GEFS has no above normal 500 mb heights in June thru the 8th; run ends on the 9th.

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Gonna see what happens when the next MJO takes off. Perhaps a repeat of this weather in 3-4 weeks?

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

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8 hours ago, PWAwx said:

Gonna see what happens when the next MJO takes off. Perhaps a repeat of this weather in 3-4 weeks?

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

Quite the stout MJO again after its one month hiatus.   The correlations in our area with temperatures gets sketchier this time of year.  It looks like phase 6 being warm and dry is the one with the strongest correlation near us.  Even the current phase 8 or 1 is not supportive of the ongoing southeast ridge. 

Glad to see you posting!

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Quite the stout MJO again after its one month hiatus.   The correlations in our area with temperatures gets sketchier this time of year.  It looks like phase 6 being warm and dry is the one with the strongest correlation near us.  Even the current phase 8 or 1 is not supportive of the ongoing southeast ridge. 

Glad to see you posting!

Yea it’s just like nao’s in summer. With shorter wave lengths you can get blistering heat waves with -nao

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Three summer forecasts from cohen's blog: NMME, C3 multi-system (European models) and AER. Nino and relatively late vortex breakdown the main factors in the AER forecast.

2019summer.jpg

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11 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Three summer forecasts from cohen's blog: NMME, C3 multi-system (European models) and AER. Nino and relatively late vortex breakdown the main factors in the AER forecast.

2019summer.jpg

Not much joy in mudville there. Relative victory, we are not in the midst of warmest anomalies on any of them?

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Pinch me, a GFS run with no 90 degree days predicted:

a.JPG.0bcdef58450eb0bb45be0f6215b87113.JPG

Last night's EPS mean after Thu the 30th had all of its predicted highs in the 70s.  Definitely would not bank on all non 80s, but it is a great signal for no 90s.

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23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Pinch me, a GFS run with no 90 degree days predicted:

a.JPG.0bcdef58450eb0bb45be0f6215b87113.JPG

Last night's EPS mean after Thu the 30th had all of its predicted highs in the 70s.  Definitely would not bank on all non 80s, but it is a great signal for no 90s.

 

 

I'd be happy with no 90's, just low to mid 80's.

Oh yeah, I'm talking temps, not golf scores. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

 

 

I'd be happy with no 90's, just low to mid 80's.

Oh yeah, I'm talking temps, not golf scores. 

 

 

Speaking for myself, I would take both.  Did you get rained on at 5 pm yesterday?  2nd GFS run in a row with no 90s!  Woo-hoo!  I'll need smelling salts soon.

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