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Rainshadow

Pre Memorial Day Weekend. Likely Not A Pipe Dream GFS 90s, But Warmer & Finally Not A Soaker.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

I guess that explains your rain post yesterday about Friday or Thursday night.  I thought you meant Friday night.   So how are you with reading every single word of the terms of agreement?  ;)

I have been so busy I'm out of the loop with whats going on here

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21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I have been so busy I'm out of the loop with whats going on here

FV3 still forecasting heavy snow:

fv3p_asnow_us_22.png.1f44bbb12eb52ab58dfc13c2efb7d5d9.png

GFS still forecasting 90s ad nauseum:

gfs_T2m_neus_48.png.2c8686e300a547cf2511a746379aaa55.png

ICON as cool as a cucumber (relatively speaking):

icon_T2m_neus_11.png.8c780cb243638349000278f342d02692.png

Euro still crushing it (well at least we are not in sole possession of 4th place):

rerrer.JPG.3f9d3ab1fb520a5cd16634a748ce9fc7.JPG

 

You are all caught up.  ;)

 

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

FV3 still forecasting heavy snow:

fv3p_asnow_us_22.png.1f44bbb12eb52ab58dfc13c2efb7d5d9.png

 

 

I think there will still be snow in Yellowstone when we go at the end of June. I know they just got the roads opened this past week and they had to plow the roads a couple of times this past week too.

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Slight risk from Delaware River westward:

day1otlk_1200.gif.e58efc83d6cfcb750f394499069c21f8.gif

 ...Mid Atlantic/Central to Northern Appalachians...
   A shortwave trough will move into the Great Lakes region today as 
   an upper-level ridge moves across the Northeast. At the surface, a
   corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place from the
   Mid Atlantic northward into western New York with surface dewpoints
   in the upper 60s to near 70 F. In response to surface heating, a
   pocket of moderate instability may develop along the moist corridor
   by afternoon. Thunderstorms that initiate in the higher terrain will
   move eastward into the stronger instability during the mid to late
   afternoon. A couple of small thunderstorm clusters may persist into
   the early evening, approaching the Atlantic coastal areas.

   RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis from eastern
   Pennsylvania into eastern New York have MLCAPE values reaching the
   1200 to 2500 J/kg range and show steep low-level lapse rates from 0
   to 3 km AGL. This combined with 0-6 km shear values in the 30 to 35
   kt range would be favorable for multicells capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible in cells that
   interact with the strongest parts of the instability axis. Although
   a severe threat is expected to develop, upper-level ridging may help
   to keep any severe threat isolated.
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I take it we are looking at late afternoon for these?  Hoping to do a quick mow after a birthday party around lunch time. 

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3 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

I take it we are looking at late afternoon for these?  Hoping to do a quick mow after a birthday party around lunch time. 

looks more like evening into the night 

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3 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

I take it we are looking at late afternoon for these?  Hoping to do a quick mow after a birthday party around lunch time. 

I think  you'll be fine for that. HRRR showing around 8 PM for the NW burbs.

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2 hours ago, cbelke said:

NAM 3K showing some potential.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh18-22.gif

This will be the S & E litmus test.  Under "normal" circumstances this convection dies before it arrives here and then of course refires too far S & E the following day leaving us in the Blutarsky zone.

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2 hours ago, cbelke said:

NAM 3K showing some potential.

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh18-22.gif

I really miss those NCAR mesoscale convective members.  When all of them had it, you were pretty much guaranteed of getting thunder.  Now the ARW physics members may have a clue, but they are the rest of the field playing for second place chasing Koepka.

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59 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This will be the S & E litmus test.  Under "normal" circumstances this convection dies before it arrives here and then of course refires too far S & E the following day leaving us in the Blutarsky zone.

That’s good, you don’t need thunderstorms so your yard can dry out 

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Despite the gfs everyone gets convective outlooks this looks primarily like lancaster-rdg-Abe on west type event. See what tomorrow brings. Could be a skipperoo where storms get going east of most of the area 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Despite the gfs everyone gets convective outlooks this looks primarily like lancaster-rdg-Abe on west type event. See what tomorrow brings. Could be a skipperoo where storms get going east of most of the area 

Not believing 12z GFS with its first 7 of 8 three hour segments containing measurable? 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

nice anvil blow off to pretty much muck up any severe chances for our areas. 

You were saying? 

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM. Wasn't expecting that, since it looks like nothing will get within 20 miles of Collegeville.

Edit: Actually, that cell that just passed Ephrata is kind of heading this way.

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Tom, how's the wind in Gilly?  Saw 67mph but probably not reaching the ground. 

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3rd tstorm of the evening here (Sinking Spring, Berks), this one more tame than the first two. The winds with the first two rivaled any storms in my 6+ years here. Yard is a disaster, limbs and sticks everywhere. 1.90” and counting. 

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8 hours ago, cbelke said:

You were saying? 

verified well. There was one storm in Berks co that was it. Look at the damage reports everything was in Berks with that one cell. Everything else was non severe and just heavy rain. Look how fast they collapsed once they got to atleast my area and yours

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7 hours ago, cbelke said:

Tom, how's the wind in Gilly?  Saw 67mph but probably not reaching the ground. 

gust to 35, Yawn. lack of dry air a loft probably assisted with keeping wind aloft

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41 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

verified well. There was one storm in Berks co that was it. Look at the damage reports everything was in Berks with that one cell. Everything else was non severe and just heavy rain. Look how fast they collapsed once they got to at least my area and yours

Yup, impressive radar signatures for a while, but nothing severe. Didn't even feel the gust front come through, although we did hear the roar overheard for a couple of minutes, but that wind never made it down to the ground., all aloft. 

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9 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Not believing 12z GFS with its first 7 of 8 three hour segments containing measurable? 

Congrats GFS on getting one of its first eight three hour segments correct.

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