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Rainshadow

Pre Memorial Day Weekend. Likely Not A Pipe Dream GFS 90s, But Warmer & Finally Not A Soaker.

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As Charlie said, the GFS is rounding into warm season form of overforecasting 2m temps as if its life depended on it:

Untitled.png.dd7ba5fe11bb53e6e5a96fe048c969fc.png

The EPS mean for Sunday for PHL is in the lower 70s.  The differences go straight to these two model biases, the GFS likes to be progressive and ejects the Canadian Maritimes closed low faster than you know who.  Personally I favor (lower) 80s occurring, but the GFS in addition to its usual bias seems to quickly ignore how wet the ground conditions are.  Regardless of the temperature circuitous routing at this point, all the models are mainly dry and any precipitation is the more typical isolated warm season type and not the unending all day rains of the previous two weekends.

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Pre EC:  12z models took a lurch toward the warmer GFS solution.  This has been there for a while about it getting warmer (April/May Spring Thread).  The difference that currently remain is that the OP GFS is naturally hottest the longest, while other models are backdooring us early next week.  Saturday/Sunday looks dry.

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While the EC keeps the weekend more pleasant by hanging back energy in NW Canada & keeping a zonal flow longer thus prompting a high to build across the region.  It eventually does warm on Monday & Tuesday.  So in terms of near 90 heat it is pay me now (most models on the weekend, then a cfp), pay me later (the EC) or pay me forever (GFS).  I am not really impressed with convection without a boundary around to enhance it for the weekend.

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Thursday morning:

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Saturday morning:

reererereerer.JPG.f09771a974aa07532fa505fcc94128dc.JPG

 

 

 

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It comes down with the handling of the CFP on Friday; the GFS remains the weakest and the front then backs up well north of us by Sunday, while all of the other models are slower.  The OP EC would be one of the colder ensemble members for the weekend; its ensemble mean max temps are in the 70s for PHL.  The dryness aspect is holding in spite of the temperatures.  Monday would be the most likely precip day in the non-GFS world.

cfp.JPG.6527b7a24a1e384dff2c77e75ac366d5.JPG

 

120.JPG

144.JPG

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52 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

EPS look unsettled for memorial weekend

Two good weekends in a row would be like expecting the Minnesota Vikings to win a Super Bowl.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Two good weekends in a row would be like expecting the Minnesota Vikings to win a Super Bowl.

Or the cowboys!

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that 18z gfs run better be wrong with those temps. eps are like low 80s which we take with some showers/storms around

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OP EC for this run capitulated to the GFS (or to its previous self), it & EPS about 10 degrees warmer on Sunday.   It was a relatively warm run for a change, but it is not as if the EPS members were 10F cooler.

index.gif.7aa6429b2c145e885d6e0288492e9a88.gif

 

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

that 18z gfs run better be wrong with those temps. eps are like low 80s which we take with some showers/storms around

Forget about this upcoming weekend, it is on to the next fictitious heat wave:

3443443.JPG.11dc20e363edf0c94ec54ed8c0888177.JPG

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On 5/14/2019 at 6:42 AM, Rainshadow said:

It comes down with the handling of the CFP on Friday; the GFS remains the weakest and the front then backs up well north of us by Sunday, while all of the other models are slower.  The OP EC would be one of the colder ensemble members for the weekend; its ensemble mean max temps are in the 70s for PHL.  The dryness aspect is holding in spite of the temperatures.  Monday would be the most likely precip day in the non-GFS world.

 

144.JPG

The GFS & Euro have become sister models for this upcoming weekend:

4444444.JPG.dd8b81675826980978e1d17740ede119.JPG

Also with the boundary in our CWA, the Canadian would be more than isolated showers and thunderstorms.

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Down at the shore this weekend. Its all about the wind, cool with any onshore flow.

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nice run of eps last night. Temps in the upper 70s and low 80s with storm chances, we take

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22 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Down at the shore this weekend. Its all about the wind, cool with any onshore flow.

Kind of like Melbourne Australia all summer long.

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Looks like the GFS may have won the battle, but will end up losing the thermal war.  Models have pretty much melded into its original idea.  Saturday looks really beautiful.  Sunday, with the warm front moving north, there could be some showers and thunderstorms around, but the chances are latitudinally driven with the greatest chances north of us.  Monday with the CFP would be our greatest chance locally.   There should be some upper 80s around Sunday & Monday (widespread 80s otherwise elsewhere) along the coastal plain & away from the shore (pending wind direction/sea breeze front onset there). 

433434.JPG.b7afe2bb7cce7d4822360d88ed6a64ce.JPG

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we take the 18z gfs, temps in the upper 60s to low 70s with some rain chances. 

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

we take the 18z gfs, temps in the upper 60s to low 70s with some rain chances. 

One of our better weekends, our luck may continue into memorial day  with the heat mainly bottled up in the SE.

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Just now, Chubbs said:

One of our better weekends, our luck may continue into memorial day  with the heat mainly bottled up in the SE.

It would be hard to be worse than the last two.  Saturday in particular looks gorgeous. 

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Just no 90s, even upper 80s is eee. Some rain preferably Friday or Thursday night would be ideal then again Sunday eve 

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Looks like dews in the low 60s on Sunday...it's not going to feel terribly comfortable but could be worse. The breeze should help.

Saturday, like Tony mentioned, will be marvelous.

Sunday sounds like a good day for our goldendoodle's first visit to Lloyd Park this year.

 

20190515_155714(1).jpg

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On 5/13/2019 at 9:13 AM, Rainshadow said:

As Charlie said, the GFS is rounding into warm season form of overforecasting 2m temps as if its life depended on it:

Untitled.png.dd7ba5fe11bb53e6e5a96fe048c969fc.png

The EPS mean for Sunday for PHL is in the lower 70s.  The differences go straight to these two model biases, the GFS likes to be progressive and ejects the Canadian Maritimes closed low faster than you know who.  Personally I favor (lower) 80s occurring, but the GFS in addition to its usual bias seems to quickly ignore how wet the ground conditions are.  Regardless of the temperature circuitous routing at this point, all the models are mainly dry and any precipitation is the more typical isolated warm season type and not the unending all day rains of the previous two weekends.

As the weekend is upon us, today remains the better of the two days in terms of temperatures (mid to upper 70s vs low to mid 80s) and also rain chances.  This time of year, I go straight to the driest model look because all of these convecting or want to be convecting global models just overdo it.  So in that regard, most of Sunday day doesn't look that bad. The threat of thunder/pcpn is highest in PA come late Sunday afternoon, with the greatest precip chances area wide Sunday night.

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Loo I definitely read this title wrong. Thought this was the memorial weekend thread not this weekend 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Loo I definitely read this title wrong. Thought this was the memorial weekend thread not this weekend 

I guess that explains your rain post yesterday about Friday or Thursday night.  I thought you meant Friday night.   So how are you with reading every single word of the terms of agreement?  ;)

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