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Rainshadow

Winter 2019-20 Outlook Discussion. Tony Analogs Page 13.

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I dunno, looking at current sst, this still looks like a Modoki to me. Looks like warmest waters are stacked up out around the dateline

 

Yes still Modoki-like, but expect EPac warming as subsurface warmth pushes east/surfaces, much like last year.

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4 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Yes still Modoki-like, but expect EPac warming as subsurface warmth pushes east/surfaces, much like last year.

Yea, that I can see in the future with all the warm water in subsurface. Anything to stir that up and bring it to the surface will turn it more basin wide

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, that I can see in the future with all the warm water in subsurface. Anything to stir that up and bring it to the surface will turn it more basin wide

It has to be a right combination.  While warmer than normal, their temps are equal or cooler than the ocean surface.  So too much mixing/easterly wind components may drop the departures.   Either way, the warmest anomalies of sub surface waters are now in the eastern Pacific.

wkteq_xz.gif.1506fd96cc548976d0e2ecc12d7e09f5.gif

 

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Just to add some additional images. Doesn’t look basin-wide to me. Not sure what the actual “el modoki” definition is, but looks closer to it than not. 

3BB2BC81-C93F-4922-B8FC-8998C05D4484.gif

242AE9A6-4750-444E-859D-B77169A2E74C.gif

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On 10/16/2019 at 7:25 PM, Mitchnick said:

Great! They were money last year.....monopoly money that is.

On a different note,  can't help but like how the drought pattern has folded and cold shots galore are headed our way. All coming together the end of October,  the same period when great winters in the past showed their hands with similar patterns. ...wet and cool/cold.

Other than the seasonal models, I don't see much not to like about what I'm seeing for the winter. And again, the switch to colder and wetter on a dime remains a strong indicator to me that we should have an AN snowfall year. You can see a total regime change in the equatorial PAC in this 850 winds map beginning 10/1. Within a few weeks, we started seeing the results with QPF and temps followed beginning NOV. I'm unusually optimistic this year at this point. 

 

850 winds.png

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2 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Just to add some additional images. Doesn’t look basin-wide to me. Not sure what the actual “el modoki” definition is, but looks closer to it than not. 

3BB2BC81-C93F-4922-B8FC-8998C05D4484.gif

242AE9A6-4750-444E-859D-B77169A2E74C.gif

Currently yes it’s modoki, but down the line it may go basin wide since warmest sun surface temps are in eastern pac. 

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Subsurface tells a different story than surface. Warm water is making steady eastward progress due to a Kelvin wave triggered by westerly wind bursts in Aug/Sept (chart above posted by michnick). So Modoki look is likely to fade, similar to last year. (may have to click once or twice to play)

wkxzteq_anm.gif

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10 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Subsurface tells a different story than surface. Warm water is making steady eastward progress due to a Kelvin wave triggered by westerly wind bursts in Aug/Sept (chart above posted by michnick). So Modoki look is likely to fade, similar to last year. (have to click once or twice to play)

 

last year at this time it wasn't a modoki though, warmer anoms were in the east pac. Not disagreeing that modoki fades, but we really never had a true modoki look last year atleast this late. 

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its actually pretty remarkable how similar this years sst are to last year outside of enso region

globe_oisst_anom_2018.png

globe_oisst_anom_current.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

its actually pretty remarkable how similar this years sst are to last year outside of enso region

Warm December a pretty good bet, hopefully the better qbo/solar vs last year improves things as winter progresses.

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32 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Warm December a pretty good bet, hopefully the better qbo/solar vs last year improves things as winter progresses.

I usually understand about 5% of his posts but this one is pretty self explanatory. Certainly would qualify as an improvement especially if we could score something in late DEC. I'd gladly surrender the 1st 3 wks. of DEC for a nice winter stretch over the Holidays.

 

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4 hours ago, Chubbs said:

A trifecta of positive tweets -

 

qbomqi.jpg

After last winter's utter tease on Euro weeklies and the abject failure of most forecasting past 10 days, how do you (as in anyone) choose what to put stock in?  On one hand you have a similar oceanic setup to last year, with similar anomalies, on the other hand you have well regarded mets indicating a brief lull before full on winter erupts.  I'm a d3-d10 guy, past that is a setup for derangement.   Which honestly is what I love about the weather, most dont know squat what really will occur

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8 hours ago, susqushawn said:

After last winter's utter tease on Euro weeklies and the abject failure of most forecasting past 10 days, how do you (as in anyone) choose what to put stock in?  On one hand you have a similar oceanic setup to last year, with similar anomalies, on the other hand you have well regarded mets indicating a brief lull before full on winter erupts.  I'm a d3-d10 guy, past that is a setup for derangement.   Which honestly is what I love about the weather, most dont know squat what really will occur

There is only modest predictability at this point but we do have enough positive factors to make me optimistic: 1) positive/neutral metrics (ENSO/SST/QBO/solar), the better pundits are positive (HM in particular), the pattern coming up though mild often leads to better things down the line (strong MJO/Scandi block/Aleutian Low).

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this makes sense, given the Aluetian low/Scandinavian Ridging set up. 
 

this could be a pretty good winter.... buckle up 

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Just for grins, checked the monthly maps for our 3 closest qbo anologs: 1978, 1995 and 2002. This November is in-line with the analogs with WC ridge/EC trough pairing. In the analogs blocking/NAO- built to a January peak and then faded in Feb. Hopefully we can stay on track.

novqboanal.png

decqboanal.png

janqboanal.png

febqboanal.png

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Just for grins, checked the monthly maps for our 3 closest qbo anologs: 1978, 1995 and 2002. This November is in-line with the analogs with WC ridge/EC trough pairing. In the analogs blocking/NAO- built to a January peak and then faded in Feb. Hopefully we can stay on track.

novqboanal.png

 

 

 

Maybe best to apply westerly qbo-> easterly qbo effects to nino type background state. Because like 95 is not a good enso fit, not sure what 78 was. 02 isn't terrible but that was a much stronger nino

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Maybe best to apply westerly qbo-> easterly qbo effects to nino type background state. Because like 95 is not a good enso fit, not sure what 78 was. 02 isn't terrible but that was a much stronger nino

On-the-other-hand east qbo has worked for a range of enso and enso shouldn't be a big factor this year. Also low solar/east qbo work together.

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21 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Maybe best to apply westerly qbo-> easterly qbo effects to nino type background state. Because like 95 is not a good enso fit, not sure what 78 was. 02 isn't terrible but that was a much stronger nino

1978-79 was the best enso fit of the three.  

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I have my analog list ready, I have to just type it up.  A warm October, cold November combo was not very common until October went all September on us recently.  Anyway I don't "think" you'll be disappointed.  Then again, it is not as if what I post changes the course of the winter.

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8 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I have my analog list ready, I have to just type it up.  A warm October, cold November combo was not very common until October went all September on us recently.  Anyway I don't "think" you'll be disappointed.  Then again, it is not as if what I post changes the course of the winter.

Happened last year too

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Hey guys! I'm pretty pumped for winter this year. It's been strange trying to time features, so far, from longer ranges (mediocre success). But otherwise, I don't see much conflict for the early winter ideas. Last year, at this time, we had a large +AAM surge with a surfacing KW across the tropical East Pacific. Basically, we went from la-di-da ho-hum ENSO to a bit of a canonical Niño response quite abruptly. At the same time, the signals were strong for the early Jan SSW. There were warning signs before winter that things wouldn't jibe well between the stratosphere and troposphere. Looking back, I wish I was more stern with that instead of just being cautious. So, I guess what I'm saying is: the similarities with last year are about to end. :)

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On 11/13/2019 at 6:07 AM, Chubbs said:

There is only modest predictability at this point but we do have enough positive factors to make me optimistic: 1) positive/neutral metrics (ENSO/SST/QBO/solar), the better pundits are positive (HM in particular), the pattern coming up though mild often leads to better things down the line (strong MJO/Scandi block/Aleutian Low).

Yes, I am positive. Some of the recent data suggests that the QBO has adequately descended. If the heart of the -u anomaly was still between 30-40km, then perhaps we would see resistance on the AO at first.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_ALL_EQ_2019.png

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