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Rainshadow

Winter 2019-20 Outlook Discussion. It Is Never Too Early.

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To provide some relief from yesterday's heat. In the past couple of days CFS has become highly amplified for January.

cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_3.png

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25 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

To provide some relief from yesterday's heat. In the past couple of days CFS has become highly amplified for January.

cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_3.png

That would set the figs back 5 years

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28 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That would set the figs back 5 years

That would match the M.O. of a 90 October month, a cold Jan or Feb.  Personally I am riding the CanSIPS to the ends of the Earth.🎃

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30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That would set the figs back 5 years

Eurasian snow coverage already on its way to its 8th consecutive October of above average coverage.

22222222222222.JPG.b06f1f961401ae8846f1ee0ce64691ed.JPG

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7 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Eurasian snow coverage already on its way to its 8th consecutive October of above average coverage.

22222222222222.JPG.b06f1f961401ae8846f1ee0ce64691ed.JPG

we're doomed.  see you in Smarch.

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6 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

overrated that siberian snow cover stuff

9 of the last 10 Octobers above average coverage, 6 of the last 10 winters warmer than the running 30 year average (36.3F).  Nothing to look at here any longer.

4444.JPG.f40bfb772d12c91057ecc96878d48467.JPG

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Pretty impressive weekly jump in the enso region.  I don't know if I have ever seen a +0.7C change on the CPC site (not that I look at every week).  The MJO (trigger?) is now over Africa, so one would think maybe it cools a bit this week and next?

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png.0cab2df4ebb2a07437c7d32c9c25876d.png

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Pretty impressive weekly jump in the enso region.  I don't know if I have ever seen a +0.7C change on the CPC site (not that I look at every week).  The MJO (trigger?) is now over Africa, so one would think maybe it cools a bit this week and next?

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png.0cab2df4ebb2a07437c7d32c9c25876d.png

You sound like that guy in the beginning to The Day After Tomorrow. 

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 10/7

Week 1 -PNA/ Blocky Western Atlantic

Week 2 +EPO / +PNA / -NAO

Week 3 +EPO / +PNA / +NAO

Week 4 +EPO / +NAO

Week 5  +EPO / +NAO

Week 6 +EPO / +NAO 

 

Week 1 verification:  Week 1......+5F (+7F)....under

Actual:  +5F

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook returns next week)

Week 1......+4F (+1F)....................under (I think I break my losing streak)

Week 2......+1F (+3F).....................over

Week 3......+2F (+2F)......................over

Week 4......+2F (+2F)......................over

Week 5......+3F (+3F) (TTidbits).....over

Week 6.......+2F (TTidbits)..............under

 

Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parenthesis) 

Week 1........wet (dry)

Week 2........dry (normal)

Week 3........dry (wet)

Week 4........wet (dry)

Week 5........normal (dry)  (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

 

Tropics

Weeks 1 & 2  Caribbean & GufMex

Week 3   Guf Mex

Week 4 Western Caribbean & Western GufMex   

Week 5 Lesser Antilles, Western Caribbean & Western GufMex   

Week 6 Western Caribbean

I recall Chuck during the EasternWX days doing research suggesting that we want a +NAO during October as -NAO's in October result in a flip back come winter. Don't have the basis for his work, but I do recall his repeating it and it being discussed several times on various boards since his original research.

Current NAO per the CPC site shows that it's neutral headed + before a flip down. Hopefully that CFS forecast for week 2 fails, but week 2 forecasts on the CFS never fail......unless they fail against us that is. I see the NAO has been coming in more + than has been predicted by the ensembles too.

nao.sprd2.gif

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QBO 8.25 in September. Would like to see it negative by December.

2019    9.02    9.25   11.82   13.36   14.59   14.36   10.96    9.97    8.25

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2 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

I recall Chuck during the EasternWX days doing research suggesting that we want a +NAO during October as -NAO's in October result in a flip back come winter. Don't have the basis for his work, but I do recall his repeating it and it being discussed several times on various boards since his original research.

Current NAO per the CPC site shows that it's neutral headed + before a flip down. Hopefully that CFS forecast for week 2 fails, but week 2 forecasts on the CFS never fail......unless they fail against us that is. I see the NAO has been coming in more + than has been predicted by the ensembles too.

 

personally, I think there is very little correlation with what you posted. We haven't had a legit -nao winter since what 09-10 or 10-11? So 9-10 years ago and I know for a fact every october hasn't had a -nao since then. Only one I really remember is the october Sandy hit. There may be others though. It may of been a good stat prior to 2000s, but present day seems like there isn't much correlation in my eyes.  

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

personally, I think there is very little correlation with what you posted. We haven't had a legit -nao winter since what 09-10 or 10-11? So 9-10 years ago and I know for a fact every october hasn't had a -nao since then. Only one I really remember is the october Sandy hit. There may be others though. It may of been a good stat prior to 2000s, but present day seems like there isn't much correlation in my eyes.  

Well, when it comes to Nao forecasts, it's all voodoo,  even to the degreed mets. So what's a little more voodoo gunna' harm, ehh?

Otoh, if memory serves, I recall looking at the -Nao Octobers and I think there was a better correlation for -Nao Octobers to be + during the winter than +Nao Octobers resulting in -Nao winters.

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2 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

Well, when it comes to Nao forecasts, it's all voodoo,  even to the degreed mets. So what's a little more voodoo gunna' harm, ehh?

Otoh, if memory serves, I recall looking at the -Nao Octobers and I think there was a better correlation for -Nao Octobers to be + during the winter than +Nao Octobers resulting in -Nao winters.

I remember the Chuck posts, but like Tom posted, I haven't personally seen good correlations with it lately.  For a while the July AO correlation was the hot outlook ticket, but that came and went too.

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I'll say this much, the CFS2 has the warmest equatorial waters right where we want them, just east of the dateline.  The questions is whether, if correct, will it be sufficient warmth to give us the forcing we need for some decent events.

glbSSTSeaInd3.gif

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From Brian Brettschneider. Interesting split in North America the past 12 months. Coastal stations consistently above normal. Interior N below. Another snowy winter for Northern Tier if it persists; but, we could cash in with some well timed amplification.

above_belownormal.jpg

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Pacific sub-surface temps, current vs last year.  This year is cooler, with nino conditions less likely. The eastern Pac is relatively cool this year, producing a Modoki look. A fly in the Modoki ointment though is the subsurface warm pocket near 120W (Kelvin wave) which is heading east and could surface in the EPac by early winter.

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif

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3 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Pacific sub-surface temps, current vs last year.  This year is cooler, with nino conditions less likely. The cooling this year is mainly in the eastern Pac, producing a Modoki look. A fly in the Modoki ointment though is the subsurface warm pocket near 120W (Kelvin wave) which is heading east and could surface in the EPac by early winter.

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif

Yea that was def one thing that changed for the worse last winter. We started with a modoki look but it then went basin side to almost east base Niño for winter.  This year has a better modoki look but have to see if it holds 

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There were 3 main things IMO that killed last winter expectations wise. First being what I mentioned above. Going into last season we were thinking this may be a modoki or weak basin wide look to SST.  The Niño was pretty strong at times basin wide as well as sometimes east base which I don’t think is as good for here. Second, we never really truly coupled the atmosphere with the Niño. Seemed like it was always out of whack. While we had Niño sst the SOI was very Niña like and strongly at times. Which brought a bout those -pna periods later in winter which isn’t Niño like. Tropical forcing wasn’t Niño like either. Seemed almost Niña to nada where it spent a decent time in warm phases for us but we did have some Niño like phases. Thirdly, the inability for the SSW to couple with the troposphere really killed middle to back half of winter. We lost greater chance of blocking combined with Niña like background state and it was kiss of death 

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From Sam lillo, qbo is moving towards easterly phase in tandem with 78,95,02

AD1645EE-1D18-4D81-B7EE-AC95BA0DAB21.png

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50 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

From Sam lillo, qbo is moving towards easterly phase in tandem with 78,95,02

AD1645EE-1D18-4D81-B7EE-AC95BA0DAB21.png

I'd say just looking at enso 78-79 would be a best fit.  All four of them in that octet though are not that bad enso fits.  If I were to rank them 78, 93, 64, 95. 

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I'd say just looking at enso 78-79 would be a best fit.  All four of them in that octet though are not that bad enso fits.  If I were to rank them 78, 93, 64, 95. 

A nice qbo neighborhood. Low solar and good SST also.

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