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Rainshadow

Winter 2019-20 Outlook Discussion. It Is Never Too Early.

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FWIW, Cansips latest monthly forecast starting with DEC. The rest of the winter looks similar. I know I'm not supposed to look at the surface maps, per many out there, but I prefer seeing the 5H maps jibe with the temp and precip maps. It does a bit with temps, but not so much for precip imho. Anyway, it's early and this run is at least fun to look at.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019090100&fh=3

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     I don't know if anyone without a paid site bothers to look at the free seasonal products off the Euro website, but I thought I'd post some links. It ain't great info, but gives you a reasonable idea of what the Euro seasonal forecasts look generally speaking.

     There are 4 different forecasts they update monthly. The forecasts are usually updated on the 8th of the month at the site, and these are links are to the September forecasts just out. The best you can do for free is to get tri-monthly averages. The links I'm giving are for the first tri-monthly period of OND of the "Tercile Summary". You have a drop box to get other info like Ensemble mean, Probabilities, etc., so it's worth checking that out as well to get an idea of the model's confidence. You can hit the arrow at the bottom, left of the pic and move it forward to the next 3-month period all the way through to JFM 2020. You can find all these links on the left side bar, but thought it might be easier to just link you up if you're short on time.

     Link below is for temps. It starts off warm, but the good news is that if you scroll through the 3-month periods, it does get cooler.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_2mtm?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

      Mean Sea Level Pressure below. I like seeing Low Pressure in the Gulf! If you go to the Ensemble Mean, there's a hint of slp off the NC coast too.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_mslp?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

      Precip. It looks wetter than normal....nice! It does dry to normal in the last period, but that makes sense since it does get colder/cooler in time.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_rain?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

     Sea Surface Temp Anomaly. La Nada. You can argue over whether it's a little warmer than straight La Nada, but warmest SSTA are in the western PAC, which is where we want them. FWIW, the ENSO plums did come in warmer on this run vs. the August run. That's the second link below (ENSO 3.4)

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_ssto?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_nino_plumes?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,0,2019090100&nino_area=NINO3-4

Anyway,  FWLIW, these are my weenie thoughts for the upcoming winter as stated to another weenie this morning:

"I'm not all in on a blockbuster winter yet, but think the weak ENSO signal, E QBO, and low solar will take a dead ratter off the table. Add to that the cold pool off Newfoundland being the strongest since May to July 2009, and I am finding it hard not to get at least a little excited."

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

     I don't know if anyone without a paid site bothers to look at the free seasonal products off the Euro website, but I thought I'd post some links. It ain't great info, but gives you a reasonable idea of what the Euro seasonal forecasts look generally speaking.

     There are 4 different forecasts they update monthly. The forecasts are usually updated on the 8th of the month at the site, and these are links are to the September forecasts just out. The best you can do for free is to get tri-monthly averages. The links I'm giving are for the first tri-monthly period of OND of the "Tercile Summary". You have a drop box to get other info like Ensemble mean, Probabilities, etc., so it's worth checking that out as well to get an idea of the model's confidence. You can hit the arrow at the bottom, left of the pic and move it forward to the next 3-month period all the way through to JFM 2020. You can find all these links on the left side bar, but thought it might be easier to just link you up if you're short on time.

     Link below is for temps. It starts off warm, but the good news is that if you scroll through the 3-month periods, it does get cooler.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_2mtm?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

      Mean Sea Level Pressure below. I like seeing Low Pressure in the Gulf! If you go to the Ensemble Mean, there's a hint of slp off the NC coast too.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_mslp?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

      Precip. It looks wetter than normal....nice! It does dry to normal in the last period, but that makes sense since it does get colder/cooler in time.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_rain?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

     Sea Surface Temp Anomaly. La Nada. You can argue over whether it's a little warmer than straight La Nada, but warmest SSTA are in the western PAC, which is where we want them. FWIW, the ENSO plums did come in warmer on this run vs. the August run. That's the second link below (ENSO 3.4)

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_ssto?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_nino_plumes?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,0,2019090100&nino_area=NINO3-4

Anyway,  FWLIW, these are my weenie thoughts for the upcoming winter as stated to another weenie this morning:

"I'm not all in on a blockbuster winter yet, but think the weak ENSO signal, E QBO, and low solar will take a dead ratter off the table. Add to that the cold pool off Newfoundland being the strongest since May to July 2009, and I am finding it hard not to get at least a little excited."

 

 

Thanks for posting this, Mitch. Hopefully the temps/qpf combo doesn't result in warm & wet followed by a late season of cold & dry. I'm not a huge fan of that kind of pattern.

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2 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

     I don't know if anyone without a paid site bothers to look at the free seasonal products off the Euro website, but I thought I'd post some links. It ain't great info, but gives you a reasonable idea of what the Euro seasonal forecasts look generally speaking.

     There are 4 different forecasts they update monthly. The forecasts are usually updated on the 8th of the month at the site, and these are links are to the September forecasts just out. The best you can do for free is to get tri-monthly averages. The links I'm giving are for the first tri-monthly period of OND of the "Tercile Summary". You have a drop box to get other info like Ensemble mean, Probabilities, etc., so it's worth checking that out as well to get an idea of the model's confidence. You can hit the arrow at the bottom, left of the pic and move it forward to the next 3-month period all the way through to JFM 2020. You can find all these links on the left side bar, but thought it might be easier to just link you up if you're short on time.

     Link below is for temps. It starts off warm, but the good news is that if you scroll through the 3-month periods, it does get cooler.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_2mtm?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

      Mean Sea Level Pressure below. I like seeing Low Pressure in the Gulf! If you go to the Ensemble Mean, there's a hint of slp off the NC coast too.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_mslp?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

      Precip. It looks wetter than normal....nice! It does dry to normal in the last period, but that makes sense since it does get colder/cooler in time.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_rain?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

     Sea Surface Temp Anomaly. La Nada. You can argue over whether it's a little warmer than straight La Nada, but warmest SSTA are in the western PAC, which is where we want them. FWIW, the ENSO plums did come in warmer on this run vs. the August run. That's the second link below (ENSO 3.4)

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_ssto?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,744,2019100200&stats=tsum

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_nino_plumes?facets=Range,Long (Months)&time=2019090100,0,2019090100&nino_area=NINO3-4

Anyway,  FWLIW, these are my weenie thoughts for the upcoming winter as stated to another weenie this morning:

"I'm not all in on a blockbuster winter yet, but think the weak ENSO signal, E QBO, and low solar will take a dead ratter off the table. Add to that the cold pool off Newfoundland being the strongest since May to July 2009, and I am finding it hard not to get at least a little excited."

 

 

Yea there are a lot of good things looking at SST right now that would point to a good winter but really need see how this all gets going once into late oct and nov

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea there are a lot of good things looking at SST right now that would point to a good winter but really need see how this all gets going once into late oct and nov

Everything looks good until it doesn't look good any longer. 

Maybe some day when I am not stacking bananas I will try to find out what has done well the last 10 years and chances are it won't hold during the upcoming winter anyway.  One thing I won't look at is positive snow coverage.  It has become the children of Lake Woebegone.

3434344343.JPG.794549cfb736412e20ee35250ddce7c1.JPG

SSTA in 3.4 is now in ENSO neutral negative territory. 

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On 9/11/2019 at 8:44 AM, Rainshadow said:

Everything looks good until it doesn't look good any longer. 

Maybe some day when I am not stacking bananas I will try to find out what has done well the last 10 years and chances are it won't hold during the upcoming winter anyway.  One thing I won't look at is positive snow coverage.  It has become the children of Lake Woebegone.

 

SSTA in 3.4 is now in ENSO neutral negative territory. 

Yea just saw that. SST right now look very nina like in the enso region outside of enso 4. Have to see if this persists or not. Thinking most likely is maybe nada to weak nina this winter. We will see how next couple months go. Outside of that though, we have the bath water around Alaska and along the west coast. Colder than normal water around Australia/Indonesia which are the torch phases of mjo. So you would theoretically that would help suppress convection in those area. 

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NMME September 3.4 model progs. Uncertain but most are forecasting a slight warming. Weak nino is probably our best option.

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

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4 hours ago, Chubbs said:

NMME September 3.4 model progs. Uncertain but most are forecasting a slight warming. Weak nino is probably our best option.

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

I was just going to post about this. The link below has a bunch of ENSO links on it. If you look at the sub-surface  link that loops you can see that the sub-surface in ENSO1&2 is starting to warm fast, which is not unusual for 1&2 as it is volatile. In addition, there is a growing area sub-surface warming further west. Assuming that loop is accurate, and it has been over the years from what I've seen, and the models are correct, I think we have peaked with the cooling. I'd be more than happy to roll the dice on a La Nada this year, or even a very weak NINO as long as the warmth is based in the western Equatorial PAC. There have been some really decent La Nada years snow-wise at BWI.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

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Hey guys. Noobish question but I dont see it mentioned a lot anymore and it has been a while since I read up on different ENSO strengths and how they impact our winters....So, which type of ENSO conditions should we want for a hopeful good winter? 

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

Hey guys. Noobish question but I dont see it mentioned a lot anymore and it has been a while since I read up on different ENSO strengths and how they impact our winters....So, which type of ENSO conditions should we want for a hopeful good winter? 

I believe historically moderate el nino's produce the most snow for our area. Weak ones are better for New England, then again there hasn't been much that isn't good for New England recently.

The monster el nino's of 82-83 & 15-16 had big hay makers despite overall hostile winter patterns. I think I remember reading something from HM that indicated 97-98 was not far off from producing a bomb during that dreadful winter.

 

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45 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

I believe historically moderate el nino's produce the most snow for our area. Weak ones are better for New England, then again there hasn't been much that isn't good for New England recently.

The monster el nino's of 82-83 & 15-16 had big hay makers despite overall hostile winter patterns. I think I remember reading something from HM that indicated 97-98 was not far off from producing a bomb during that dreadful winter.

 

Since 1950 in the CPC era:

nino.xlsx

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Hopefully the seasonal models perform as well as they did last year.

 

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11 minutes ago, Debeaches said:

 

We take!!! Though that SST looks a little to bullish IMO on Niño 

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55 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

We take!!! Though that SST looks a little to bullish IMO on Niño 

Greenland below normal temps,   which suggests a +NAO. -Epo driven I guess.

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Seeing 13-14 thrown around on a lot of weather boards right now for main analog for this winter. I know none of us will complain about that. 

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21 hours ago, jrodd321 said:

Seeing 13-14 thrown around on a lot of weather boards right now for main analog for this winter. I know none of us will complain about that. 

2001-2 a winter season you will never read about being thrown about in September on any weather board  ;) .

Where we were then and now:

1.JPG.da7e58799590161f7bb28f716eb6021d.JPG

222.JPG.1659676e920d2c7b939a3613bb41436d.JPG

 

Then November 2013:

f.JPG.2118c4502da7e1cc508b53d0448b5b50.JPG

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I'll tell ya, looking at sept right now compared to sept 2014, since 1982 this is the closest I see right now. Both have the big area of above normal water in western pacific, cold water around indonesia, cold pool coming off Japan. 2014 isn't as robust with the nina look as this sept. Also 2014 had bigger cold pool south of Greenland

globe_oisst_anom_current.png

globe_oisst_anom_2014.png

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51 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I'll tell ya, looking at sept right now compared to sept 2014, since 1982 this is the closest I see right now. Both have the big area of above normal water in western pacific, cold water around indonesia, cold pool coming off Japan. 2014 isn't as robust with the nina look as this sept. Also 2014 had bigger cold pool south of Greenland

globe_oisst_anom_current.png

globe_oisst_anom_2014.png

yikes

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From Simon Lee's twitter. The qbo is still on track. This is a snowy group locally (phl avg= 35.5) and the best winters are the closest matches. (1995+2002) Would like to see Dec below zero to  stay with 95+02

2019qbo.jpg

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18 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I'll tell ya, looking at sept right now compared to sept 2014, since 1982 this is the closest I see right now. Both have the big area of above normal water in western pacific, cold water around indonesia, cold pool coming off Japan. 2014 isn't as robust with the nina look as this sept. Also 2014 had bigger cold pool south of Greenland

globe_oisst_anom_current.png

globe_oisst_anom_2014.png

I heard 2013-14 thrown around as an analog over lunch yesterday and personally agree with you, this looks like a better fit.  You are comparing an apple to an apple ssta (both Septembers), while the 2013-14 analog is comparing the current September to November 2013.  The warm pool in September 2013 was west of the date line and moved into the great position ( or appeared to do so).

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9 hours ago, Chubbs said:

From Simon Lee's twitter. The qbo is still on track. This is a snowy group locally (phl avg= 35.5) and the best winters are the closest matches. (1995+2002) Would like to see Dec below zero to  stay with 95+02

2019qbo.jpg

Not that it matters (it really doesn't at all), I don't like 2002 regardless of QBO because it is such a poor enso fit.  Conversely the map Tom just posted the current enso has a stronger nina thermal gradient given the rest of the Pacific is currently bath water which would leave 1995 in the mix (the strongest nina in the bunch).

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