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Rainshadow

Winter 2019-20 Outlook Discussion. It Is Never Too Early.

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19 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Here  is the whole forecast - not sure that all the bugs have been fixed.

cansips_z500a_nhem_fh1-9.gif

For some reason on the CONUS scale, we lose the "gravity waves".

index.gif.8d0bd62669f29cde6135d076ec629e45.gif

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I love seeing all those blues. Lock it in

But here's the problem.

Now that I've seen all the blues, Snowlurker's law mandates that future forecasts will flip the blues to oranges, salmons and reds.

Maybe I should avoid this thread until 11/30 as a favor to the entire forum...🤔

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53 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

But here's the problem.

Now that I've seen all the blues, Snowlurker's law mandates that future forecasts will flip the blues to oranges, salmons and reds.

Maybe I should avoid this thread until 11/30 as a favor to the entire forum...🤔

I would 100% guarantee that forecast changes. 

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I know people say to only look at the 500mb maps if you are going to consider anything on the seasonal/monthly progs, but I still check to see if the temp and precip maps make sense with the 500mb maps. Cansips shows a little colder than normal average for I95 Mid Atlantic/SNE in the DEC-FEB period, but dry as a bone. Hard to get too excited with the Cansips in my weenie mind.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2019080100&fh=6

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth&runtime=2019080100&fh=6

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3 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

I know people say to only look at the 500mb maps if you are going to consider anything on the seasonal/monthly progs, but I still check to see if the temp and precip maps make sense with the 500mb maps. Cansips shows a little colder than normal average for I95 Mid Atlantic/SNE in the DEC-FEB period, but dry as a bone. Hard to get too excited with the Cansips in my weenie mind.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2019080100&fh=6

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth&runtime=2019080100&fh=6

Lol I don’t think anyone is excited with it nor taking it seriously. It totally blew the August forecast and also has every month below normal from now till next summer. Yea okkkkkkkkkk.....

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CPC NAO:  Jan+Feb vs Jun+Jul.  Looks like winter and summer NAO  regimes can differ. Current regime favors winter positive and summer negative. This pattern was reversed in the 1960s. Tough to get a jan/feb NAO- since 1990. Exception was NAO- in last solar min, a repeat would show this year and next (peak?).

naocpc.png

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On 8/22/2019 at 11:14 AM, Chubbs said:

CPC NAO:  Jan+Feb vs Jun+Jul.  Looks like winter and summer NAO  regimes can differ. Current regime favors winter positive and summer negative. This pattern was reversed in the 1960s. Tough to get a jan/feb NAO- since 1990. Exception was NAO- in last solar min, a repeat would show this year and next (peak?).

naocpc.png

The flip of the summer and winter regimes worked quite well in the 1960s and 70s; idk if this is the change in the amo related or climate changing in general, but it hasn’t worked lately. 

Edit: upon looking again it is better than I originally posted.  The 60s spread looked like a slam dunk.

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I expanded my spread sheet to include enso neutral positive/negative events and the wow statistical oddity on how a purely enso neutral Mr. Blutarsky winter has rocked.  The outlooks are trending enso neutral:

forrest.JPG.d9e4c4817c6c9abac104c7911841b9e7.JPG

2.JPG.e7bf9d2ce8f23e4b7234adaddfe5d7c9.JPG

1.JPG.1636d41377abf91f32acab53ad5e8dd2.JPG

 

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1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said:

what no farmers almanac pic's yet? :) :smileys-snowman-053129:

rain

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^ lol thats the biggest L-O-L forecast I have ever seen in my life. Talk about going out on a limb there lol

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

^ lol thats the biggest L-O-L forecast I have ever seen in my life. Talk about going out on a limb there lol

You should the article on how they nailed the cold and snowy winter last season.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

You should the article on how they nailed the cold and snowy winter last season.

Not that I ever follow the Farmer's Almanac, but shifts towards extreme weather have messed up winter so much that I don't put stock in anyone's forecast, except Tom's, Tony's, and Chubbs' of course

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13 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

Not that I ever follow the Farmer's Almanac, but shifts towards extreme weather have messed up winter so much that I don't put stock in anyone's forecast, except Tom's, Tony's, and Chubbs' of course

Other than going with the default milder than normal (and being right if I guess 6 to 7 out of the last 10 times), the sea ice degradation, the plethora of +ssta,  etc have set back the skill of winter long range outlooks. That won't stop the usual suspects (not just The Farmers Almanac) from issuing below normal temps/above normal snow for the nth consecutive winter outlook.

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8 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

^ lol thats the biggest L-O-L forecast I have ever seen in my life. Talk about going out on a limb there lol

they are basing it on the old gfs 6 month extended model synopsis denominator run

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Looks just like the CanSIPs.... :blink2:

Can’t say I’ve ever seen a torch Alaska and arctic and all that warmth underneath. Cold has to go somewhere if it’s not in high lats. Not that it matters cause these monthly maps suck verification wise. 

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13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Can’t say I’ve ever seen a torch Alaska and arctic and all that warmth underneath. Cold has to go somewhere if it’s not in high lats. Not that it matters cause these monthly maps suck verification wise. 

Suck would be kind to describe the weekly maps last winter

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10 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Suck would be kind to describe the weekly maps last winter

The monthlies were just as bad. The weeklies kept trying to couple the strat with the trip and it never happened. Thus we went full on -pna 

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2 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Suck would be kind to describe the weekly maps last winter

Weeklies rarely show skill beyond week 2. They should really have never extended them to six weeks.

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