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Rainshadow

Winter 2019-20 Outlook Discussion. It Is Never Too Early.

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Slight drop in the October qbo. Keeping pace with 2002 and a little behind 1995. Negative by December would be favorable.

2019    9.02    9.25   11.82   13.36   14.59   14.36   10.96    9.97    8.25    7.27 -999.00 -999.00
2002    4.64    8.00    9.32   14.03   14.16   13.26   10.05   10.60    8.90    7.66    4.46   -0.50
1995    8.38    8.01    8.79   11.79   14.92   15.62   11.74    9.53    6.98    3.43   -0.77   -4.57

 

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3 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Slight drop in the October qbo. Keeping pace with 2002 and a little behind 1995. Negative by December would be favorable.


2019    9.02    9.25   11.82   13.36   14.59   14.36   10.96    9.97    8.25    7.27 -999.00 -999.00

2002    4.64    8.00    9.32   14.03   14.16   13.26   10.05   10.60    8.90    7.66    4.46   -0.50

1995    8.38    8.01    8.79   11.79   14.92   15.62   11.74    9.53    6.98    3.43   -0.77   -4.57

 

Are there any comparable qbo(s) that are either weak ninos, enso neutral positive or enso neutral negative? 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Are there any comparable qbo(s) that are either weak ninos, enso neutral positive or enso neutral negative? 

78+93 are comparable. Both dead neutral.

 1993    9.63   10.81   11.36   12.60   13.56    6.55    0.38   -1.20   -1.14   -4.04   -5.76   -6.00
 1978    3.21    6.07    9.34   12.98   12.23    8.36    6.02    5.84    5.91    6.22    4.04    1.46

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sst wise 2 best matches to me from 1982 to present is 2004/05 and 13/14. QBO is 9596 and 02/03. All 4 oft those years were very good winters

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

sst wise 2 best matches to me from 1982 to present is 2004/05 and 13/14. QBO is 9596 and 02/03. All 4 oft those years were very good winters

We also have low solar. HM tweeted links to papers a couple of weeks ago that indicated that low solar and negative qbo work together to amplify mjo which can lead to blocking. 09/10 is the last low solar/neg qbo winter.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

78+93 are comparable. Both dead neutral.


 1993    9.63   10.81   11.36   12.60   13.56    6.55    0.38   -1.20   -1.14   -4.04   -5.76   -6.00

 1978    3.21    6.07    9.34   12.98   12.23    8.36    6.02    5.84    5.91    6.22    4.04    1.46

Enso wise, both doable. I can do without 93-94, not that it matters to the outcome.

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29 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Enso wise, both doable. I can do without 93-94, not that it matters to the outcome.

sst, 93/94 does have the GOA warm pool and enso, but outside of that doesn't match. 93/94 had a lot of cold water in western pacfic, but it does have the +IOD like this year.

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

sst, 93/94 does have the GOA warm pool and enso, but outside of that doesn't match. 93/94 had a lot of cold water in western pacfic, but it does have the +IOD like this year.

Any other +IOD analogs? Assume would favor mjo 8,1+2

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4 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Any other +IOD analogs? Assume would favor mjo 8,1+2

I can only see from 82 onward right now but 04 again looks  to have a good +IOD. I like that analog, matches sst pretty well as a whole. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I can only see from 82 onward right now but 04 again looks  to have a good +IOD. I like that analog, matches sst pretty well as a whole. 

 

globe_oisst_anom_2004.png

globe_oisst_anom_current.png

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That is a pretty good match. Below is 04/05 winter. Looks like many of the climate model forecasts with AO/NAO+. Could be the failure mode.

winter0405.png

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9 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

That is a pretty good match. Below is 04/05 winter. Looks like many of the climate model forecasts with AO/NAO+. Could be the failure mode.

winter0405.png

xmACIS2 is back!  I would say 2004-5 is an enso probability for this winter.  Anyway that is the seasonal 2004-5 snowfall highlighted.

1.JPG.228278c9f31821e0c90c21d51a35050f.JPG

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34 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

That is a pretty good match. Below is 04/05 winter. Looks like many of the climate model forecasts with AO/NAO+. Could be the failure mode.

winter0405.png

Yup, good sst temp match. That’s why I can by a warmer than normal dec. but everything I’ve seen so far points to a good winter snow wise 

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Here is 2019 through October. A good winter for some latitude band in US if pattern persists. Have most faith in Alaska ridging for this winter.  More uncertain is strength of SE ridging and whether warm season NAO- will hold. 

janoct2019.png

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15 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Here is 2019 through October. A good winter for some latitude band in US if pattern persists. Have most faith in Alaska ridging for this winter.  More uncertain is strength of SE ridging and whether warm season NAO- will hold. 

janoct2019.png

The Alaskan ridge is what causes the se ridge. That ridge is to far west and promotes a -pna. 

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The Alaskan ridge is what causes the se ridge. That ridge is to far west and promotes a -pna. 

On the other hand though we are looking at this when wavelengths are short. This would be altered with longer wavelengths in winter 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The Alaskan ridge is what causes the se ridge. That ridge is to far west and promotes a -pna. 

 

Just now, tombo82685 said:

On the other hand though we are looking at this when wavelengths are short. This would be altered with longer wavelengths in winter 

Yes, need to dump the cold further east than has been the case so far this year. On balance probably better to have Alaska ridging, but benefits are not as certain here vs those further NW

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JAN 2005, talk about the proverbial rubber band snapping - 1st 15 days averaged +10.2 & the remainder of the month averaged -11.7.

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13 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

JAN 2005, talk about the proverbial rubber band snapping - 1st 15 days averaged +10.2 & the remainder of the month averaged -11.7.

IDK, was that a SSW Event or just a run of the mill pattern change?

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33 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

IDK, was that a SSW Event or just a run of the mill pattern change?

not positive, believe it was a pattern change

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An update on ENSO. The east Pac subsurface has warmed (Kelvin wave) and the Epac surface should follow. Meanwhile the C Pac is cooler than last year. No modoki this year.

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif

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1.JPG.981e54f25221f7770da6b4298ed6d5fe.JPG

10 of last 11 Octobers above average Eurasian coverage.  Excluding the 2011-12 below,  its 6 of those 10 with above average snowfall and 5 of those 10 below average temperatures.

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November NMME enso - Neutral + with slight cooling from current

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

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On 11/8/2019 at 5:15 AM, Chubbs said:

An update on ENSO. The east Pac subsurface has warmed (Kelvin wave) and the Epac surface should follow. Meanwhile the C Pac is cooler than last year. No modoki this year.

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif

I dunno, looking at current sst, this still looks like a Modoki to me. Looks like warmest waters are stacked up out around the dateline

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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