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Rainshadow

Winter 2019-20 Outlook Discussion. It Is Never Too Early.

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The climate/statistical enso models get through the upcoming meteorological winter with their latest outlooks:

figure4.png.d670d7d856f60f57e4100cf83478bc8c.png

I have found them nino happy this time of year, but they were right last winter.  Consecutive nino winters are rare, but not unfounded.

Second consecutive nino winters in the past included:

1888-89*

1896-97*

1919-20

1930-31*

1958-59

1969-70

1977-78

1987-88*

2015-16*

* One of those two winters had a strong el nino.

Anyway shocker those winter average temps were:

cd72_73_242_83_109.7_13_24_prcp.png.dcd61204e24a57be697c20a7c962d12a.png

Including the strong nino winters:

cd72_73_242_83_109.7_14_57_prcp.png.e761b6cd51ef8c7566b09d1f2c418e85.png

 

Tom calls this upcoming outlooked nino winter a Modoki in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.....

 

 

 

 

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50-75” region wide next winter 5 below zero nights. Figs dead by early November 

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EXPERTS PREDICT A LONG, DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA's annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

"We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum," says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp.

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17 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

lock it up

Getting a May preview

 

814analog.off.gif

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1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said:

How much snow for Quakertown? :)

 

artist2014_kane_kaleo.jpgz.jpgx.jpg.a652b4cf125ba55391255faf9b519d97.jpg

I hear one gets 10" for each member of the hula tour that visits your town.

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FWIW, the Ukie seasonal model bases its NAO forecasts on the presence of cold water off of Newfoundland (the "cold pool") in May of the preceding winter. Based on current SSTA in that area, I'd say to look for a -NAO forecast from the Ukie come fall. Now if only predicting accurately the actual NAO forecast was as simple as predicting the forecast off the models....meh.

 

Cold Pool 5-20-19.gif

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The June ENSO outlook for next winter took a slight downtick from the May dynamical/statistical models. It is borderline weak attm.

 

2.JPG

1.JPG

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I think this winter will turn out more like what most thought last winter was supposed to be. Around BWI, we can do OK in La Nada's, and probably a little better (sometimes much better) than weak Nino's. I like seeing the warm waters along the western equatorial PAC that run NE into Southern California too. Whether they last is another question. Plus, the cold pool was impressive off Newfoundland this May so, assuming that theory is correct, we have a better chance at a -NAO. Notice how I said "better chance" at one and not "going to have." lol

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10 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

I think this winter will turn out more like what most thought last winter was supposed to be. Around BWI, we can do OK in La Nada's, and probably a little better (sometimes much better) than weak Nino's. I like seeing the warm waters along the western equatorial PAC that run NE into Southern California too. Whether they last is another question. Plus, the cold pool was impressive off Newfoundland this May so, assuming that theory is correct, we have a better chance at a -NAO. Notice how I said "better chance" at one and not "going to have." lol

Mitch!

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On 6/25/2019 at 9:45 AM, Mitchnick said:

I think this winter will turn out more like what most thought last winter was supposed to be. Around BWI, we can do OK in La Nada's, and probably a little better (sometimes much better) than weak Nino's. I like seeing the warm waters along the western equatorial PAC that run NE into Southern California too. Whether they last is another question. Plus, the cold pool was impressive off Newfoundland this May so, assuming that theory is correct, we have a better chance at a -NAO. Notice how I said "better chance" at one and not "going to have." lol

Pacific looks good, with Tony's Modoki and baked Alaska waters, - too bad its June

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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15 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Pacific looks good, with Tony's Modoki and baked Alaska waters, - too bad its June

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Jack Ordille (Jacko :( we miss you) gave me a research paper on the Newfoundland pool that used May-July, not just May for a -NAO.  Nevertheless, that is two months in the book for that too.

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35 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Jack Ordille (Jacko :( we miss you) gave me a research paper on the Newfoundland pool that used May-July, not just May for a -NAO.  Nevertheless, that is two months in the book for that too.

Long run of NAO- recently, been a while

nao.sprd2.gif

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Slightly off topic, but I would imagine all the cool waters off the SW Africa coast are suppressing tropical wave development in the eastern Atlantic, though the central Atlantic basin and north of the Carribean look warm enough to support an early season storm.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Long run of NAO- recently, been a while

nao.sprd2.gif

Our mid winter SSWE/Split can be thanked for this... (finally ... 4 months too late lol) 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, PreserveJon said:

Slightly off topic, but I would imagine all the cool waters off the SW Africa coast are suppressing tropical wave development in the eastern Atlantic, though the central Atlantic basin and north of the Carribean look warm enough to support an early season storm.

That and all the dust coming off Africa is choking convection out

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20 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Lock it up 

538F6F02-CD16-4D5A-9627-82E84363DED7.png

Are you taking December with the outlook again this winter?  ;)

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19 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Are you taking December with the outlook again this winter?  ;)

I’m taking every month in winter 

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