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Rainshadow

Annual Philly Wx Golf Outing @ Northampton Valley @ 10 AM Saturday October 19th.

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Updated as of 10/17:                                          

Tom                                                                                                            

Charlie  

Al                                                                                                                            

MShaffer                                                                    

Shawn

Carl                                                                              

Tony                                                                             

Chris B

Paul

Dean (NWS)

Lee (NWS)

Jim Eberwine ???????

Garrison & Friend????

19th Hole : Jim Caruso

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Can't wait!! Might have to go buy some more balls before the weekend!! It takes a lot of balls to play golf the way I do. :ohmy:

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1 minute ago, cbelke said:

Can't wait!! Might have to go buy some more balls before the weekend!! It takes a lot of balls to play golf the way I do. :ohmy:

Charlie doesn't have that problem, he has a contest winning sleeve coming his way.  ;)

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There's 2 versions to my game, either good, or walk to the bar after the 3rd hole.  We'll see who shows up

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37 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

There's 2 versions to my game, either good, or walk to the bar after the 3rd hole.  We'll see who shows up

You wait till the 3rd hole? I'll be waiting at the bar for you.

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44 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

There's 2 versions to my game, either good, or walk to the bar after the 3rd hole.  We'll see who shows up

I should done that on Tuesday.  I was 11 over after three holes.

 

 

I was then 9 over the remaining 15 holes which makes me wonder if I should have made a tee time half an hour later. 

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with that 36 on mex guidance, could possibly see some frost, so can't rule out a frost delay but I would lean on no

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34 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

with that 36 on mex guidance, could possibly see some frost, so can't rule out a frost delay but I would lean on no

I hope you aren't looking at the NAM.

 

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50 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I hope you aren't looking at the NAM.

 

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That I was not. Would wait till tomorrow to see if that holds 

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52 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That I was not. Would wait till tomorrow to see if that holds 

They are fairly well booked prior to 10 am, so there would be a ripple effect.  I can't say for mins, but the NAM is definitely OD'ing on the oooh the cooler air will never mix out Kool-Aid for the max temp on Saturday.  EC 2pm 2m temp fcst is 59F.

BTW 2pm DYL temp is 58F and their daytime max temp is 60F, so NAM especially not off to a good start on this run.

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So the frost advisory doesn't include the NVCC area, but having grown up in that area, frost is still a good possibility. Any updated thoughts on frost for tomorrow morning?

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20 minutes ago, cbelke said:

So the frost advisory doesn't include the NVCC area, but having grown up in that area, frost is still a good possibility. Any updated thoughts on frost for tomorrow morning?

I’d say probably will be some. Wouldn’t shock me if nws bumps that adv a bit south with afternoon update. It may not warrant a frost adv for killing frost butvthere probably will be some frost 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

I’d say probably will be some. Wouldn’t shock me if nws bumps that adv a bit south with afternoon update. It may not warrant a frost adv for killing frost butvthere probably will be some frost 

Rule of thumb for frost/freeze if you don't reach 60F during the day you have to consider it.  The MOS guidance blew it last night with DYL's min, both had 42F and looks like 48F at coldest.  But then again there were winds and clouds last night, won't be the case tonight.  I am using DYL as proxy, NVCC could be colder.

Anyway, NAM MOS discovered that the cooler air can be mixed out on Saturday day.

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hopefully we don't get a frost delay because if we do won't be able to hangout afterwards at 19th hole

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12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

hopefully we don't get a frost delay because if we do won't be able to hangout afterwards at 19th hole

Hot date?

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Slightly warmer than the last run for the NAM.

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31 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Slightly warmer than the last run for the NAM.

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I'd take Tom's word over mine on this, but it does seem that the greens frost rather easily (lots of sand underneath?).  The flip side the dew point is predicted to start above freezing which is a good thing.  The current DYL dew point is spot on to the MOS forecasts above. If dews were in the mid to upper 20s, it would be easier to frost over. Now we have to radiate moisture and temps. I guess this might shorten the duration of frost, which I think will occur.  I forget how open to morning sunshine the first few holes at NVCC are.  Anyway the tee times prior to us are booked rather solidly.  I don't know the first tee time of the day, but there is a 740 foursome opening as the first available tomorrow.

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44 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

hopefully we don't get a frost delay because if we do won't be able to hangout afterwards at 19th hole

The other thing too is pace of play. I know we can only go as fast as the groups in front of us, but these scrambles / shambles tend to run long, which I never understand why.

 

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49 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I'd take Tom's word over mine on this, but it does seem that the greens frost rather easily (lots of sand underneath?).  The flip side the dew point is predicted to start above freezing which is a good thing.  The current DYL dew point is spot on to the MOS forecasts above. If dews were in the mid to upper 20s, it would be easier to frost over. Now we have to radiate moisture and temps. I guess this might shorten the duration of frost, which I think will occur.  I forget how open to morning sunshine the first few holes at NVCC are.  Anyway the tee times prior to us are booked rather solidly.  I don't know the first tee time of the day, but there is a 740 foursome opening as the first available tomorrow.

Frost on greens is harder to do than rough. With cutting at under an with of an inch you get residual warmth from warm ground temps. Rough easier because displaced away from warm ground. Frost on greens is an issue but frost in rough fairways etc can do a frost delay as well. Usually this early frost delay is because of rough and some fairways/approaches  that are in colder valleys. Assuming we go to mid 30s. Once lower then you can get frost everywhere but greens still are more difficult due to soil temp

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Also, not sure of Northampton valley but public courses around here I would assume are on push up greens instead of sand base usga greens. 

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45 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

 

:facepalm:

 

To much city influence on the gfs, it's horrible. Out my way it's good with low, while the euro is bad. But closer in to the city it just goes on roids with the urban heat

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Updated as of 10/18:                                          

Tom                                                                                                            

Charlie  

Al                                                                                                                            

MShaffer                                                                    

Shawn

Carl                                                                              

Tony                                                                             

Chris B

Paul

Dean (NWS)

Lee (NWS)

Garrison & Friend????

19th Hole : Jim Caruso

image.png.7e3e34ccac4cc0d124ebbf85f77b2fb4.png

@JimCaruso  there is a chance at a frost delay tomorrow morning, so I really wouldnt get there before 230 pm.  If you want us to text you when we think the first group will finish, message either Tom or I your number.

 

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12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Updated as of 10/18:                                          

Tom                                                                                                            

Charlie  

Al                                                                                                                            

MShaffer                                                                    

Shawn

Carl                                                                              

Tony                                                                             

Chris B

Paul

Dean (NWS)

Lee (NWS)

Garrison & Friend????

19th Hole : Jim Caruso

 

@JimCaruso  there is a chance at a frost delay tomorrow morning, so I really wouldnt get there before 230 pm.  If you want us to text you when we think the first group will finish, message either Tom or I your number.

 

Or we could just update you on here too

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