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irishbri74

April/May Meteorological Pattern Discussion

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It is usually the OP GFS that pulls stunts like this during the first 10 days of May:

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_9.png

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looking like a wet 2 weeks coming up. Blocking regime in nao domain plus active southern jet pushing storms right over the area then slowing them down. EPS have 3-4" of rain from tonight through next 15 days for average. 

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On 5/1/2019 at 8:04 AM, Rainshadow said:

It is usually the OP GFS that pulls stunts like this during the first 10 days of May:

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png

 

Day 8 or 9 is not good for the OP Euro in spring either...

ecmwf_T850a_us_1.png.1b194b63c1cf576b89c60fa69e0de27c.png

 

The EPS was so much better:

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_9.png.8c6720de29f89c5a876d3ccdb50fcbc1.png

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It is good with all of this rain that the GFS has not lost its touch to outlook fictitiously long May heat waves with oppressive dew points.   100 degree forecasts are not far behind.

555.JPG.7c3da2141a9674d1800c9bf6dab42510.JPG

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OP GFS continues to have no ensemble or FV3 support for a run of 90s.  However, there is some modeling support for a warmer (first 90?) spike the first part of the week of May 19th.

gfs_T2m_neus_48.png.819b1f7448b22c7bc6f5cd77ee5b6250.png

fv3p_T2m_neus_55.png.d772bdab51cfb85bdeb1be49bc16cd28.png

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Much as I detest the 90's, unfortunately that's what it's going to take to dry out the soil.    The 60's and low 70's with a couple of hours of sun every few days just doesn't get it done.

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22 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

Much as I detest the 90's, unfortunately that's what it's going to take to dry out the soil.    The 60's and low 70's with a couple of hours of sun every few days just doesn't get it done.

The 90s will come.  After Monday/Tuesday the pattern "looks" drier.  But we will see.  The ring of fire look is farther west on the GEFS than the GFS while good for (lack of) heat would mean more precip chances.

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Onto the next great fictitious prolonged heat wave for the GFS.  A 90 degree day in there, not absurd, but then there is this:

 

3443443.JPG

hot.JPG

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Onto the next great fictitious prolonged heat wave for the GFS.  A 90 degree day in there, not absurd, but then there is this:

Last night's Euro doesn't look very comfortable next weekend. Hopefully we can turn this around. Otherwise May will go from cool, wet---->oppressive.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Onto the next great fictitious prolonged heat wave for the GFS.  A 90 degree day in there, not absurd, but then there is this:

 

3443443.JPG

hot.JPG

Has there ever been an 80 degree overnight low in PHL in May?

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

 

Last night's Euro doesn't look very comfortable next weekend. Hopefully we can turn this around. Otherwise May will go from cool, wet---->oppressive.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

The EPS is not much different. I could see a 90 degree day in there with this look.

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35 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

Has there ever been an 80 degree overnight low in PHL in May?

IDK, I will look this up later.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

IDK, I will look this up later.

I would have guessed some date in 1991 but surprisingly it's 5/31/1895 with a Tombo approved low of 78. 

5/28/1991 is #2 at 76, MAY that year was one ugly month

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39 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

I would have guessed some date in 1991 but surprisingly it's 5/31/1895 with a Tombo approved low of 78. 

5/28/1991 is #2 at 76, MAY that year was one ugly month

1991 has been spending some time  on the analog list recently, hopefully a passing fancy

814analog.off.gif

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6 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

I would have guessed some date in 1991 but surprisingly it's 5/31/1895 with a Tombo approved low of 78. 

5/28/1991 is #2 at 76, MAY that year was one ugly month

1991 was one ugly summer.

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16 hours ago, Chubbs said:

1991 has been spending some time  on the analog list recently, hopefully a passing fancy

814analog.off.gif

The overnight la la land look by the models have backed away from prolonged 90s. Not that I have much hope for this summer either way.

 

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23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The overnight la la land look by the models have backed away from prolonged 90s. Not that I have much hope for this summer either way.

 

Yup looks better, blocky pattern don't want to get stuck in a bad spot.

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12 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Yup looks better, blocky pattern don't want to get stuck in a bad spot.

I didn't think the NAO could go negative anymore.  ;)  AO negative too, not great for the sea ice.  I just looked 2019 just slipped above 2016 for least amount in modern day records to date.

nao.sprd2.gif.6249de65ea9f8f5b102ea5f7bc7db2a6.gif

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26 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I didn't think the NAO could go negative anymore.  ;)  AO negative too, not great for the sea ice.  I just looked 2019 just slipped above 2016 for least amount in modern day records to date.

nao.sprd2.gif.6249de65ea9f8f5b102ea5f7bc7db2a6.gif

Strat PV breakdown, AO-, NAO-, 50/50 low - where was this pattern last winter?

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34 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Strat PV breakdown, AO-, NAO-, 50/50 low - where was this pattern last winter?

:unsure2:

3780683.png.19e6a706219287898395dd371d1eb862.png

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In kick the can mode, the GFS has to find another wannabe heat wave now that it just about gave up on Memorial Day weekend.  00z/17th run.

z.JPG.c2abf44b8ede3121f32e48d629c7e455.JPG

Heat ridge is there over the southeast on Memorial Day weekend and while the latest OP EC is on the warm side, there are EPS members that get PHL to 90F Memorial Day Weeekend.  So a 90 degree day next weekend remains possible.

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27 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Lol

index.gif.6945cea684a957674aa54652e4820bc5.gif

A mere shift of only 4 degrees/hour of model time, that's all.

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The SE ridge is making a comeback. OP EC has gone one extreme or another with it (70s or 90s). Now two hot runs in a row where it is nearly in outliar territory with a 3 day heat wave Tue-Thu. Regardless this may be the best chance for at least one widespread 90 degree day for the region. 

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