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susqushawn

Smarch Version 1.0 (Friday The 1st), A Little Light On The Features. Smarch Version 2.0 (Saturday The 2nd), A Pasting Or A Melting?

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23 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Except the thermal gradient is predicted to be weaker tomorrow than it is today.  You can count me in on 1-3" as an outcome from this, but to outperform based on modeling qpf that has been in rice paddy mode the whole month of February, count me out.  Looking at the NAM it is almost a qpf/terrain induced fgen max (there isnt much at 700mb even on the NAM).  If you don't get the heavier pcpn, you don't get that fgen packing.  We don't see these features with the Euro too, I suspect that it is the reason too this run was so moist.  Heck, I am overdue to be too conservative one of these days.

 

 

 

Once places got north of 3", it is time for me to:

payn_c14633920161112120100.jpg.e89cc7439edd04d436f04db5c29366cb.jpg

The fgen forcing didn't fail.  Gotta give props to CrankyWxGuy too, great call on this.  Like his objective approach even if I don't always agree with him.  I know from his posts he is not going to hug the snowiest (or least) solution all of the time.

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7 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I didn't even know there was a thread for this Saturdays event. 🤐 

I just added it to this thread last evening instead of making a separate one.

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Just now, Rainshadow said:

I just added it to this thread last evening instead of making a separate one.

Some day I'll learn to read.🤓

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40 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

will be interesting to see where battleground sets up tomorrow.  HRRR/NAM has it over fall line, CMC/GFS farther N&W.  Definite warm nose punching in around 700-900, then sub freezing layer, and marginal surface.  very close here anyway.  tombo/qtown/matt/frank all looking in better shape

 Not sure if today's snow has any impact on bl temps, but mid levels not much you can do aboutdownload.png.d976685596be5ef116bb0942a33802c6.png

Today's outperforming snow is not going to hurt near the surface, but if warm air is arriving above 850mb, not as much. Got requested to work today, I would go with the 2nd coldest solution.

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12z NAM looks like less freezing rain overall at least off of Tidbit algorithms (which also inflate the snowfall because of the sleet and wrong ptype assumptions near the transitional zone).

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Would like to see the RGEM nudge a bit colder aloft. It has done well this winter with ptype events likes this. It has been on the warmer side of guidance for round 2. I-78 and north. 

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8 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Would like to see the RGEM nudge a bit colder aloft. It has done well this winter with ptype events likes this. It has been on the warmer side of guidance for round 2. I-78 and north. 

Yea I'm not sure I'm buying the nam's icebox scenario out here. Ice I can see, but mainly snow eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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4 minutes ago, blinkers88 said:

What are we thinking for a start time for part 2?

After 8/9pm

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I'm not sure I'm buying the nam's icebox scenario out here. Ice I can see, but mainly snow eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Yeah. Tough call. If the the RGEM even starts leaning in the direction of the other mesomodels then I’ll start believing (for us just south of 78). 

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3 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Yeah. Tough call. If the the RGEM even starts leaning in the direction of the other mesomodels then I’ll start believing (for us just south of 78). 

it's very isothermal look with mid levels being the issue. Will be interesting to see how this pans out tonight assuming it doesn't back down or some models trickle colder. 

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29 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Yeah. Tough call. If the the RGEM even starts leaning in the direction of the other mesomodels then I’ll start believing (for us just south of 78). 

Rgem much colder now good bit of snow out here

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9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Rgem much colder now good bit of snow out here

Pretty far out but HRRR has trended colder the last several runs as well. Has snow east of the Delaware

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I'm sorry to be that guy, but what is the time frame on this? Usually I am able to follow along fairly well, but the information for this one just doesn't seem as coherent as other threats.

It appears that Berks County may be taking the brunt of this, and the PIAA Wrestling Class AA Southeast Regional is tonight and tomorrow at Wilson West Lawn. I'll be perfectly honest in that I'm interested how this may affect that tournament. 

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8 minutes ago, mweav067 said:

I'm sorry to be that guy, but what is the time frame on this? Usually I am able to follow along fairly well, but the information for this one just doesn't seem as coherent as other threats.

It appears that Berks County may be taking the brunt of this, and the PIAA Wrestling Class AA Southeast Regional is tonight and tomorrow at Wilson West Lawn. I'll be perfectly honest in that I'm interested how this may affect that tournament. 

“mweav” aka “Joe Bastardi”?😏

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Rgem much colder now good bit of snow out here

Yup. Good for you, points north/west. 

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47 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Yup. Good for you, points north/west. 

You and I are close. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

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euro ticked colder.. mostly snow msq-ptw-ukt on nw. ice threat on it down to 202 corridor 

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro ticked colder.. mostly snow msq-ptw-ukt on nw. ice threat on it down to 202 corridor 

Looks like most of the mesoscale models have our area up here in a 2-4 zone 

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Obviously looking out a ways on the HRRR, but looks like a nice hit along the 202 corridor.  

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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1 hour ago, snowwors2 said:

“mweav” aka “Joe Bastardi”?😏

Nah, just a fan. The high school I graduated from has been on a roll this season, and has 10 kids competing this weekend.

It sounds like 1-3" overnight, so it might delay the start time of the tournament tomorrow but otherwise shouldn't have much of an effect I would think. 

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NAM keeps most of the snow NW of 202, in line with other modeling.  Lancaster/Berks/Lehigh/Southampton bullseye.

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