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susqushawn

Smarch Version 1.0 (Friday The 1st), A Little Light On The Features. Smarch Version 2.0 (Saturday The 2nd), A Pasting Or A Melting?

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58 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

Gfs nice low development for early Saturday, wet paste job for burbs?

Hour 42 soundings for gfs 

 

this is one is over 95. Very questionable profiles. Might be a rates situation.EB6DBD95-F17F-4D9D-98EB-B34E8FCE8912.png.21d99666ce16f8560876487b221c7fb9.png

 

this is the same hour, but pulled from the northern tip of bucks:

Little bit better. Got that riming look to it. 

4F43AF15-C61F-480C-8630-A375B5984519.png.6420d7840f92be0491a3f9850dc9356e.png

 

Big question is , can we trust the gfs thermals??!!

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Boy, this is almost smelling like a possible LanCo/Chesco Special.

kowalski-analysis-37680906.png

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43 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

Boy, this is almost smelling like a possible LanCo/Chesco Special.

kowalski-analysis-37680906.png

 

C9263A8E-548D-440C-8319-74FD8A0899C6.png.a9a8164a54bf020f4464359b96929f2f.png

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1 minute ago, november2003 said:

 

C9263A8E-548D-440C-8319-74FD8A0899C6.png.a9a8164a54bf020f4464359b96929f2f.png

Is it possible to post another map for NJ posters here?  Thank you.  My brother is traveling from Atlantic City to Kutztown tomorrow, so would like to alert him. 

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9 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

Is it possible to post another map for NJ posters here?  Thank you.  My brother is traveling from Atlantic City to Kutztown tomorrow, so would like to alert him. 

Sorry, I got this map form another user, so I don't have access to this model suit myself.  I think others maybe able to post a wider view. Maybe Tombo?

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36 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

Is it possible to post another map for NJ posters here?  Thank you.  My brother is traveling from Atlantic City to Kutztown tomorrow, so would like to alert him. 

That includes Saturday 

91184C1C-3BF3-4F7A-B5DB-6DFD3F88E178.png

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Winter Weather Advisory up for 1-3 across southeastern pa and south jersey. 

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NAM juiced up...it is kind of interesting how it quickly falls apart east of the city....NAM also looks a little interestibg for Saturday too but idk 

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15 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

NAM juiced up...it is kind of interesting how it quickly falls apart east of the city....NAM also looks a little interestibg for Saturday too but idk 

Speaking of juiced, the 15z SREF snowfall mean jumped to 2.8" for PHL thanks to ARWs run wild (3.9" mean including two over 6"), nmb(s) which is the nam's physic package is up a tenth to 1.7".

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20 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

NAM juiced up...it is kind of interesting how it quickly falls apart east of the city....NAM also looks a little interestibg for Saturday too but idk 

NAM's 700mb fgen forcing moves offshore after 12z; there is some 850mb fgen forcing e of the city, but none above which is the case west of the Delaware.  I still think 1-3" is the most likely outcome, but am willing to eat crow for the cause.

 

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Models hinting at an interesting feature:

 

looks like an embedded swuall type feature. Solid omega inside the DGZ for a short period. Could puke dendrites for an hour or so in some areas. 

3F151CAE-27EA-4203-8E4C-D1DE4A797AF3.png

01295500-4324-494B-82AF-438536D6DA19.png

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Off topic but how about the models starting to indicate this low blows up and turns into a noreaster for SNE...ugh

Maybe it will help a little for the next one.

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14 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Gfs ugly for the Saturday coastal:

 

Cold rain, even for N&W burbs 

BB40C127-E1F8-4BA3-8E4A-0009CCCE9D36.png

65CDB823-8171-4B3B-9D38-D07824591D8B.png

To much primary low into western PA. You can see the kink in the isobars. That’s what kills mid levels until coastal takes over 

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10 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Canada loves this event.

rgemsnow2_28_18.gif

Either way, congrats. I would be surprised with more than 4" anywhere, but the models have held firm on that fgen forcing and from that sheet, they are playing catch-up regardless. That fgen forcing that goes to town west of you lets you (and LanCo) reap the rewards of what falls late tonight.  Can't ask for better accum timing; not great for the morning rush.

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I have ZERO reason not to believe the model that gives me the most snow is the correct one.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

NAM's 700mb fgen forcing moves offshore after 12z; there is some 850mb fgen forcing e of the city, but none above which is the case west of the Delaware.  I still think 1-3" is the most likely outcome, but am willing to eat crow for the cause.

 

Agree.  Duration won’t allow for more IMO 

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Could be similar to our last event a couple of hours of moderate/heavy snow. Am rush could be ugly.

crankytweet.png

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euro was 2-4 m/d line to i78. Then it blows up saturday's system, rain for city south/east and immediate burbs. lns-ptw-ukt it looks very iso thermal, but they do flip to snow atleast at the end for an inch or so.. once to rdg and abe looks like another 2-4

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