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susqushawn

Smarch Version 1.0 (Friday The 1st), A Little Light On The Features. Smarch Version 2.0 (Saturday The 2nd), A Pasting Or A Melting?

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NAM/ICON continue with period of snow overnight Thursday into Friday early AM, 1-2" generally, about right for this winter

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The 06z models weren't very enthused. Below is the 06 gem, less than 1" at phl, Like the gfs, a cutback vs 00z.

 

gemsnow2_26_06.gif

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23 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The 06z models weren't very enthused. Below is the 06 gem, less than 1" at phl, Like the gfs, a cutback vs 00z.

 

gemsnow2_26_06.gif

Tom will tell me it is because I started the thread. Here comes the banning. :(

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EPS has 47 of 51 members with some measurable at PHL & 8 of 51 with 2" or more. 

00z GEFS ensemble mean has 3 of 21 members with 2" or more and 1 of 21 members pitching a shutout. Its mean (1.3") looks slightly higher than the EPS. 

Then.......in typical follow the control off the cliff, the 06z GEFS has only one member with 2" or more, although all 21 have measurable.  The OP was the only non-measurable run of that crew.  The average dipped to 0.8".

If it is light enough, it may be just white rain or mulch snow for PHL proper and sea level locales.

 

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53 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Tom will tell me it is because I started the thread. Here comes the banning. :(

 

side-eye-what-you-talking-about-willis1.jpg

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Well, another one of those cases where the ECMWF may win the battle, but lose the war.  The GFS predicted thermals are on their (shocking!) way to stinking for Friday.  But now it brings in so much dry air that it shreds the snow apart more than any other model.  This is now pretty close to what the ECMWF had:

 

 

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_us_13.png

gfs_temp_adv_fgen_850_us_18.png

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GFS very weak at 12z with zip for phl. GEM bounced back a little from 6z run - perhaps an inch or two (west) on the grass.

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Still out of range but 00z NAM with a solid event Friday. This is the positive snow depth map prob more realistic based on the run, though its still prob slightly overdone

 

namconus_asnowd_neus_22.png

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Congratulations, we have been NAMMED!  +1.6 vertical velocity and .40" w/e; poor Boston has twice the strength of predicted VV for twice as long and still can't muster .40" the night before.

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4 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

00z NAM. 4-6 leggo.

5733E2C6-7659-4567-9A33-46A2E5485184.png

Cue in Tom banning himself post if this verifies.   If the OP NAM was a member of the SREF family, this run is 8 times snowier than the snowiest of the 26 SREF members.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Cue in Tom banning himself post if this verifies.   If the OP NAM was a member of the SREF family, this run was 8 times snowier than the snowiest of 26 SREF members.

good idea, I'll ban myself if philly gets 4+ out of this till first 90 day

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

good idea, I'll ban myself if philly gets 4+ out of this till first 90 day

You might be sweating this one out....

Edit: I sold it short; just checked ISU site, it really is 4.4", so make that 10 times snowier than the most snowiest SREF member.  

4.JPG.5ed920c7d497249b6ec55e85189e3f4f.JPG

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This ticked south overnight. Models still uncertain on intensity. GEM+NAM the most robust at 06z. Below is the GEM 06 map. A nice event DC/BWI to Dover. R/S is near DC so max snow is north of max qpf

 

gemsnow2_27_06.gif

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2 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

This ticked south overnight. Models still uncertain on intensity. GEM+NAM the most robust at 06z. Below is the GEM 06 map. A nice event DC to Dover

gemsnow2_27_06.gif

That axis has enjoyed many a snowfall this year.

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3 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

That axis has enjoyed many a snowfall this year.

Yup. This week will determine the I95 season champ.  Note that I updated map in post, first was qpf, updated is snow only.

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