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tombo82685

Lets cancel 1st half of Feb snow obs 2/10-2/12

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

I guess the omega avoided the snow growth area too the way lil'Gigi avoided round 1.

 

He's a slippery little bugger

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HRRR for Round 2.  This is off PW so not sure how it counts sleet.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

He's a slippery little bugger

BTW mesoscale models and Euro did a nice job of showing a heavier snow axis across SRN NJ/NRN DE/NRN MD.  That feature really did not bounce around at all.  I am going to bust low on my 1-3" round 1 expectation somewhere in addition to Egg Harbor City in that area.

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2 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

HRRR for Round 2.  This is off PW so not sure how it counts sleet.

 

Pivotal is the best around IMO with their snow maps. While thats pretty far out in HRRR land that map is probably showing mostly snow

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

BTW mesoscale models and Euro did a nice job of showing a heavier snow axis across SRN NJ/NRN DE/NRN MD.  That feature really did not bounce around at all.  I am going to bust low on my 1-3" round 1 expectation somewhere in addition to Egg Harbor City in that area.

You and I both. I had 1-1.5 for philly. They will be way past that. Nice little event for most areas in a month where it was canceled. 

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Nice band of SN set up directly across Lanco - I have about 2.5" here but I'm hearing unconfirmed reports of 4" in part of the county. Could be weenie reports...

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Very light snow falling in Spring Mount with a temp of 30.1 degrees.  Snow total so far is 1.4".

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That super strong Feb. sun shining through the overcast and snow flakes here. 😎

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Not sure I’m going to add much more but looks like .5 additional from 1.1 so 1.6. I’ll take it 

7D2C1767-FC7E-4840-A856-B34A6C08AB5D.png

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16 minutes ago, mshaffer526 said:

HRRR for Round 2.  This is off PW so not sure how it counts sleet.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

 

Eh, it is somewhat counting it as snow. At least Kuchera recognizes the warm air aloft and drops the ratio below 10:1.  This is a better choice than picking straight 10:1.

You chose the best of the snowfall maps you could have.  TTidbits is going to be awful with round 2 because it clearly states that it treats sleet as 10:1.  Those UKMET maps Andy posted yesterday from I forget the site name were awful too.  It looks like PHL gets an additional .25" when precip goes over to sleet, so that would maybe be an additional .1".  We are going with the assumption that the model is right, just to see what to trust.

I would say that once you see a sleet ptype transition, look at the snowfall map for that final frame and then adjust accordingly based on qpf.

Just looking at PHL as an example:

1.JPG.f3bacf4e5ece24a52e613bedd6509797.JPG2.JPG.37077068c8cba39b404e6ff05a0c0fb8.JPG

So beyond this it was all sleet and the qpf of .25", so I would expect a 3.1" or maybe a 3.2" in PHL:

3.JPG.e70c435488fe9cffae19871f0bbe4e2a.JPG

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.5 additional at work, but you can see the sun poking through now.. so call it 1.8 at work 

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28 and wet flakes at 8:30 in Middletown, DE. I eyeballed 2.5"+. Could be our biggest winter snowfall.

Forgot to mention the roads.

On the 12 mile drive to work, I counted 5 disabled vehicles, including one foolish driver in a utility van who was driving too fast and spun out in front of me.

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Highest CoCoRahs reports by state in Mt. Holly CWA:

Maryland 2.1" Elkton

Delaware 3.0" Newark (well 5N close to PA border)

Pennsylvania 2.5" West Grove

New Jersey 3.7" Egg Harbor City

These are just once daily between 7 am & 9 am, so some of those amounts could be even higher at this point.

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Egg Harbor is probably going to add onto that. Good solid band moving through here right now. Could be a last hurrah of sorts.

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2.1" in Mount Laurel; sun visible here too. Last flakes still falling even though echoes are gone.  This was not as easy a shovel as the champagne snow from 2/1.

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

2.1" in Mount Laurel; sun visible here too. Last flakes still falling even though echoes are gone.  This was not as easy a shovel as the champagne snow from 2/1.

Cleaned the driveway of my 3/4" of snow and it compacted very nicely. Good snowball snow. I agree, nothing like the champagne powder from the other week where I used my leaf blower to clear the driveway.

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lol 1.4 at philly intl at 7am on .25 qpf nothing like a 5-1 ratio

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.ilg has 2.2 on .28 accumulation while philly has 1.4 on .25. Something is wrong there 

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

lol 1.4 at philly intl at 7am on .25 qpf nothing like a 5-1 ratio

I was surprised at how “wet” the snow was actually. 

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