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susqushawn

Overunning to possible thump of snow? Feb 2/10-12

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Just now, cbelke said:

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Not looking like that big of a thump of snow before the change over starts to happen?

 

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Starting to snow again in center city philly. Is this the beginning of round 2?

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Force field at the berks line but something tells me north of that line is where The ice will lock in tomorrow??

0F37BE3F-B10D-4D53-9877-52DD1F40B374.png

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On 2/10/2019 at 4:53 PM, Rainshadow said:

Then there is the GFS:

 

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nam3km_2019021018_fh42_sounding_39.94N_75.20W.png

Alex, I believe we have our winner. 

The GFS for the local Philly area was just awful with this event.  First it put Phase 1 thru the shredder and then it makes you want the FV3 for Phase 2.

 

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On 2/10/2019 at 1:35 PM, Rainshadow said:

Yeah I think there is a glass ceiling with this and unless the models somehow are underplaying waa above 850mb for the first time since 1979, I'd be surprised if it is more than 3-6" combined in the local PHL area.

SFC low position: I am not going to be able to do tomorrow's so I will verify the position, too deep into the cold air (like NAM) never a good thing and one doesnt get as much (if any) of a northern track trend once it's February.

 

Looks like I am going to be right for the wrong reason. I expected less from the first & more from the second, but will average out close to ok.  (2-5").  Just dont tell anyone how I got there. :ph34r:

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Verification 7am Tuesday 2/12:

1000 MB low on the Illinois/Indiana Border near Danville, IL with a 546 Thickness in Philadelphia

 

These positions are for 7am Tuesday morning.

144hr surface low positions off of the 12z run: GFS 996 NW Kansas 537 PHL Thick;  

UKMET 1008 Evansville, IN;   GGEM 1005 Milwaukee 538 PHL Thick; 

ICON 998 NW Oklahoma 546 PHL Thick;    Euro 994 NE MO;   

FV3GFS 1001 NC OK  PHL Thick  528

 

120hr surface low positions:  GFS 1009 Extreme WC Illiniois 540 PHL Thick ;  

UKMET 1008 South of STL;   GGEM 1011 Ann Arbor, MI 541 PHL Thick; 

ICON 997 WC Arkansas 540 PHL Thick;    Euro 1007 Covington, KY;   

FV3GFS 992 NW MO PHL Thick 540

 

96hr predicted surface low positions:  GFS 996 SE IA/NE MO Border 549 PHL Thick;  

UKMET 1004 SC MO;    GGEM 1002 Evansville, IN 543 PHL Thick

ICON 995 WC Illinois 546 PHL Thick;    Euro 996 WC Illinois PHL Thick 543;   

FV3GFS 987 WC MO PHL Thick 547

 

72 hr predicted surface low positions:  GFS 994 NE MO 546 PHL Thick;

UKMET  1004 SE IN;      GGEM 1004 Evansville, IN 545 PHL Thick

ICON 999 NW IL 546 PHL Thick;   Euro 1000 Central IL;   

FV3GFS 992 NNW of STL PHL Thick 546;   NAM! 998 CHI 546 PHL Thick

 

48hr predicted surface low positions:  GFS 1001 SE MO 546 PHL Thick;

UKMET  1003 EC Illinois;      GGEM 999 EC Illinois 545 PHL Thick

ICON 1001 SC MO 546 PHL Thick;   Euro 1003 East of STL & Terre Haute, IN 544 PHL Thick;   

FV3GFS 996 SW Missouri PHL Thick 547;   NAM! 1000 SW of STL 547 PHL Thick

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