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susqushawn

Overunning to possible thump of snow? Feb 2/10-12

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Whoa.  Storm look right there...almost woof worthy but get me to d5 first

gfs_z500a_namer_fh180-234.gif

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The last 6 d8 GEFS. The 50/50 low slowly edging S into a better position for our area. Should get a good high position initially,  need the right wave amplitude/track.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh192_trend.gif

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Chubbster

How did 850 & 2m temps look at the end of the 00z EURO run? It looked like a decent 50/50 in place and a HP sandwiched between the CONUS low....Any snow in the region once we get to 240 hrs? Just curious. 

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29 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Chubbster

How did 850 & 2m temps look at the end of the 00z EURO run? It looked like a decent 50/50 in place and a HP sandwiched between the CONUS low....Any snow in the region once we get to 240 hrs? Just curious. 

There was a narrow strip of snow centered near the M/D line on D9. Close to a foot in central Pa/Md, lesser amounts to the east, high end advisory/low end warning in philly metro. Rapid fall-off N+E. Icy at 240. Obviously a bit of a fluke.

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EPS last couple runs have been backing of this threat as they slide the big high south of us which brings in a southeast flow off the ocean. There also looks to be some sorth of weak lakes low too. Need those 2 things to change if we are going to expect anything worthwhile out of this. 

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Is there any front end on the 12z EURO on that day 7 system?

Day 7 system is way south with some snow showers, do you mean day 8

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47 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Day 7 system is way south with some snow showers, do you mean day 8

Yep lost track of what HR it showed...yes the day 8-9 one...it does show a decent HP in place and you can see some bending in the isobars for CAD, but without precip maps and less than 24 hr increments i have no clue

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and I fully get that the HP is sliding E, but wondering if it held long enough to give us any frozen precip since this is probably the only chance for anything for a while it seems

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Just now, Heisenberg said:

and I fully get that the HP is sliding E, but wondering if it held long enough to give us any frozen precip since this is probably the only chance for anything for a while it seems

Snow to rain yes, Tombo probably has accumulations

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3 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Looks good to me. 

C19394C3-4A8C-4DBA-9953-29F4168DB9B0.jpeg

Yeah, I saw that today and was surprised there were no posts about it considering a lot of the other models are hinting at it at varying degrees and the EURO has shown this snow to rain threat for a few runs at least.

 

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

and I fully get that the HP is sliding E, but wondering if it held long enough to give us any frozen precip since this is probably the only chance for anything for a while it seems

1-2 in city 2-4” in burbs and LV then over to a 35 and rain type deal 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

1-2 in city 2-4” in burbs and LV then over to a 35 and rain type deal 

When have we seen that forecast.   This winter is like Groundhog Day 

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6 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

When have we seen that forecast.   This winter is like Groundhog Day 

luckily for you, it's day 8

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d7 gefs, trend I posted yesterday continues. 50/50 low is strengthening and edging SW. Tight gradient between 50/50 and SE high favors flat tracking, weak systems that could produce light snow in our area.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh168_trend.gif

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18z FV3 was a juicy event, obviously likely too cold lol....but verbatim if this happened I’d quit winter (not like I’m trusting the FV3 with anything, it would just fit the season). 

 

 

0E8E4CC9-C2C6-4B33-B213-F69381B90B75.png

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Since it will be brought up about the day 8 euro, it was the 2nd snowiest member out of the whole ensemble. 

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2 timeframes I would watch. Next Monday's system, still a lot of support on eps for a system there. Granted the HP position doesn't make me feel all the great as it's sliding off to the east/southeast but there may be just enough antecedent cold to produce snow/ice. Then obviously the system the euro/eps have been showing around the 13/14th. That will also have a big high in front of it and as of now looks to slide it north of us which keeps us in northerly flow. Issue with that one is it's northern stream related and with the -pna out west that one is going to want to cut. So you need a block like the euro op showed to get this to redevelop on the coast. Still though, due to antecedent airmass front end thump would be best shot right now as long as this doesn't cut to far west. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

2 timeframes I would watch. Next Monday's system, still a lot of support on eps for a system there. Granted the HP position doesn't make me feel all the great as it's sliding off to the east/southeast but there may be just enough antecedent cold to produce snow/ice. Then obviously the system the euro/eps have been showing around the 13/14th. That will also have a big high in front of it and as of now looks to slide it north of us which keeps us in northerly flow. Issue with that one is it's northern stream related and with the -pna out west that one is going to want to cut. So you need a block like the euro op showed to get this to redevelop on the coast. Still though, due to antecedent airmass front end thump would be best shot right now as long as this doesn't cut to far west. 

Some support there in the gefs/EPS for maybe something on the front end. 

 

The euro op redevelops a secondary and bombs it out basically to 983. Wasn’t seeing too many members doing that though. 

D9363D4D-2766-48B1-82DC-4C4FD7366FDE.png

FCCD7DD1-2365-4173-B27C-D4A3B1F26A96.png

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Last 3 00z eps. Not as much of a trend in 50/50 location as GEFS (better located to start) but 50/50 did strengthen and tic west last night.  Ridging in N Canada strengthened while SE ridge shifted offshore lowering heights here. Combo should improve our snow chances. Agree with Tom that there are enough issues, that a light or partially snow event/events are more likely than a warning level event.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh168_trend.gif

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What a gross 6z GFS run. Just wash and repeat the entire run cutter after cutter.... Of course the OP EURO is likely a fluke as Tom stated when compared with its ensembles, but we gotta hope it is on to something because if not Feb is starting to look like a dud like the entire winter has been. 

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1 hour ago, jrodd321 said:

We ride. 

 

yup right off a cliff

download.gif

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