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Rainshadow

February/March Meteorological Pattern Discussion.

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47 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

@Rainshadow do the figs like these lows on the eps? 

 

Untitled373.png

They are dead. Dead figs have no opinions or tell no lies.

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EPS advertising a PNA spike day 12-14. Long ways out, but that happen, could see downstream responses.

 

D00F6AB8-D919-4FA1-817E-63910C55EEC4.png

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On 3/2/2019 at 11:33 AM, tombo82685 said:

@Rainshadow do the figs like these lows on the eps? 

 

Untitled373.png

Seriously, when did the Euro morph into the Cassandra model?

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10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Seriously, when did the Euro morph into the Cassandra model?

You should see the lows now

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

You should see the lows now

For VAY I'd take over every morning and I am not saying that because I hate this type of cold. I could see spots like Parsley getting down to those mins if the winds shut off.

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00z Feb 24th GEFS

Below normal 500mb heights until February 26th (same as three days ago).  Above normal 500mb heights return on Feb 27th thru March 2nd (same as three days ago)  March 2nd teleconnection -EPO / +NAO / -PNA.  Below normal heights March 2nd thru March 6th (one day longer). +PNA spike no longer there. Zonal near normal heights from March 6th thru the 8th with SE Ridge assisted above normal heights returning on the 8th thru the end of its run on the 11th.   The EPO allegedly rolls over by then, but it is beyond forecast confidence range.

NAEFS for the week of 3/4-3/11 is highly confident of below normal temperatures in our area. 

MJO is in Phase 1.  Althogh there is convection near the date line that is not hurting. Through the first 10 days of March we will be in the coldest March climo MJO phases: 2 & 3.  So this colder outlook continues to have greater confidence than average for this outlook range.  

 

00z March 4th GEFS

Below normal 500mb heights start this run and last through March 7th. Given the GEFS perchance to knock down cold patterns too quickly this was only a one day delay from about a week ago, not bad for it.  The outlook pattern switch held with a -PNA/+EPO configuration arriving. Above normal heights outlooked from March 9th through the 17th. The interruption around the 12th is more aloft driven as of now a cutting deep low northwest of our area.  Similar to the EPS, a +PNA is outlooked to develop and bring near normal heights back on March 17th & 18th.

NAEFS for the week of 3/12-3/19 is weakly confident of above normal temperatures in parts of our area. This looks undervalued. 

MJO is in Phase 2 or 3 now, the coldest March climo phases for it. Of course the GEFS has it dying for the millionth time going forward. Regardless getting out of colder phases increases confidence of a non February March next week.

 

Bias corrected GEFS teleconnections:

4indices.png.993759c2dba06c9f73d0f86fb0a5d936.png

 

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This thread seems to focus on teleconnections. If I see a relatively wet or cold or warm pattern on the CPC-made maps for D+8 and D+11, is this a good place to mention them? D+11 is especially wet for the Poconos.

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4 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

This thread seems to focus on teleconnections. If I see a relatively wet or cold or warm pattern on the CPC-made maps for D+8 and D+11, is this a good place to mention them? D+11 is especially wet for the Poconos.

Yep

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He's baaaaackkkkkk.....

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png.bdca1d8aa8f48340dc592233e48e354f.png

This resurgence pretty much seals the deal that we will make the CPC definition of an el nino.  We have had four consecutive tri-monthlies in the category and need March to not get iced over going forward. 

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Speaking of El Niño, finally starting to couple the ocean to tee atmosphere.... just in time for Smarch...

ACBE6A4B-5B33-4ACC-B8C8-1EDF936F03A3.png

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37 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Speaking of El Niño, finally starting to couple the ocean to tee atmosphere.... just in time for Smarch...

ACBE6A4B-5B33-4ACC-B8C8-1EDF936F03A3.png

Sapril?

 

anyways that’s the period to possibly watch for a coastal. Nice pna spike in the right spot too

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00z March 4th GEFS

Below normal 500mb heights start this run and last through March 7th. Given the GEFS perchance to knock down cold patterns too quickly this was only a one day delay from about a week ago, not bad for it.  The outlook pattern switch held with a -PNA/+EPO configuration arriving. Above normal heights outlooked from March 9th through the 17th. The interruption around the 12th is more aloft driven as of now a cutting deep low northwest of our area.  Similar to the EPS, a +PNA is outlooked to develop and bring near normal heights back on March 17th & 18th.

NAEFS for the week of 3/12-3/19 is weakly confident of above normal temperatures in parts of our area. This looks undervalued. 

MJO is in Phase 2 or 3 now, the coldest March climo phases for it. Of course the GEFS has it dying for the millionth time going forward. Regardless getting out of colder phases increases confidence of a non February March next week.

 

00z March 7th GEFS

 

Below normal 500mb heights pretty much ending by the end of the day.  A -PNA/+EPO/+NAO configuration brings above normal heights on the 9th through the 16th. (One day less than three days ago).  Near normal heights then outlooked.  This ending is caused by a developing +PNA pattern.  NAO & EPO still look positive on the 16th, although the NAO is outlooked to ( 😆 ) turn negative on the 18th.  Below normal heights return on the 19th thru the 21st with near normal heights then returning on the 22nd as the NAO turns positive and PNA ridge relaxes as this reun concludes on the 23rd.

NAEFS for the week of 3/15-3/22 is highly confident of near normal temperatures in our area. Their PNA angle of the cold is in the Plains States. 

MJO is in Phase 3. GEFS has it still dying for the millionth time going forward.  Subsequent March phases are warmer, colder, warmer, warmer.  Outlook from Mike's site has a slow moving (they tend to be too slow IMO), but strong (this they do better with) MJO, spending more time in Phase 5 might prolong that PNA spike. Hard to tell from the EC WH outlook if they have the MJO just flying around the globe or just drinking too much of the GEFS' kool-aid.  Anyway my probably wrong take is that the rest of March is more up and down than any prolonged period in any one locked in pattern.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png.de390825ae28c10ba288bdaec2d88288.png

4indices.png.966520105b1c61b35e7befc05ab48072.png

We didn't really cash in (other than the past week) on the date line convection the past month:

olr_anom.30day.gif.7909c0c84a3fdce98b237a58b15f65f2.gif

 

 

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On 3/2/2019 at 11:33 AM, tombo82685 said:

@Rainshadow do the figs like these lows on the eps? 

 

Untitled373.png

In reality for an ensemble forecast within a week, pretty bad. 

Untitled373.png.ec6ae903662a5c6ec273a14deb3ac086.png.49d4549b39164dde11c6102a46111a2e.png

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00z March 4th GEFS

Below normal 500mb heights start this run and last through March 7th. Given the GEFS perchance to knock down cold patterns too quickly this was only a one day delay from about a week ago, not bad for it.  The outlook pattern switch held with a -PNA/+EPO configuration arriving. Above normal heights outlooked from March 9th through the 17th. The interruption around the 12th is more aloft driven as of now a cutting deep low northwest of our area.  Similar to the EPS, a +PNA is outlooked to develop and bring near normal heights back on March 17th & 18th.

NAEFS for the week of 3/12-3/19 is weakly confident of above normal temperatures in parts of our area. This looks undervalued. 

MJO is in Phase 2 or 3 now, the coldest March climo phases for it. Of course the GEFS has it dying for the millionth time going forward. Regardless getting out of colder phases increases confidence of a non February March next week.

 

00z March 7th GEFS

Below normal 500mb heights pretty much ending by the end of the day.  A -PNA/+EPO/+NAO configuration brings above normal heights on the 9th through the 16th. (One day less than three days ago).  Near normal heights then outlooked.  This ending is caused by a developing +PNA pattern.  NAO & EPO still look positive on the 16th, although the NAO is outlooked to ( 😆 ) turn negative on the 18th.  Below normal heights return on the 19th thru the 21st with near normal heights then returning on the 22nd as the NAO turns positive and PNA ridge relaxes as this run concludes on the 23rd.

NAEFS for the week of 3/15-3/22 is highly confident of near normal temperatures in our area. Their PNA angle of the cold is in the Plains States. 

MJO is in Phase 3. GEFS has it still dying for the millionth time going forward.  Subsequent March phases are warmer, colder, warmer, warmer.  Outlook from Mike's site has a slow moving (they tend to be too slow IMO), but strong (this they do better with) MJO, spending more time in Phase 5 might prolong that PNA spike. Hard to tell from the EC WH outlook if they have the MJO just flying around the globe or just drinking too much of the GEFS' kool-aid.  Anyway my probably wrong take is that the rest of March is more up and down than any prolonged period in any one locked in pattern.

 

00z March 9th GEFS

Except for a continuous 30 hour interlude around Tuesday morning the 12th, above normal 500mb heights prevail into the 17th. (a day later than two days ago).   The developing +PNA pattern brings below normal heights on the 19th (same as two days ago) thru the 23rd (extending it two days longer). Flattening of PNA ridge returns near normal heights to the end of its run on the 24th.  EPO looks mainly positive and any -NAO looks -NAO east.

NAEFS for the week of 3/17-3/24 has our area surrounded by higher confidence of below normal temperatures.  Losing the 15th & 16th is tipping the scales colder.

MJO is in Phase 4.  Want to say eastern part of phase 3 ok.  Regardless of the silly GEFS (among others) WH outlooks phase 5 in March is colder in the northeast. Phases 6 & 7 are warmer.  So this PNA spike and cooler week has MJO support even if the WH outlooks are rofl as to where it thinks it is going.  Beyond that the relaxation makes sense as long as the MJO continues to progress at the same rate of speed. It does sometime slow in 5 & 6.  Just double checked the strat, and there isn't much going on with wave 1 or 2 hits, may be late in the game for them anyway.

 

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On 3/4/2019 at 10:17 AM, Rainshadow said:

Seriously, when did the Euro morph into the Cassandra model?

000.JPG.ace230d8fcb6647c88826ac6e52a3622.JPG

This was not a day 10-15 forecast and this is an ensemble, not rogue operational forecast. 

Untitled373.png.ec6ae903662a5c6ec273a14deb3ac086.png.a0c5ad9aa9ba4be36c2a24f0b664685b.png

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00z March 4th GEFS

Below normal 500mb heights start this run and last through March 7th. Given the GEFS perchance to knock down cold patterns too quickly this was only a one day delay from about a week ago, not bad for it.  The outlook pattern switch held with a -PNA/+EPO configuration arriving. Above normal heights outlooked from March 9th through the 17th. The interruption around the 12th is more aloft driven as of now a cutting deep low northwest of our area.  Similar to the EPS, a +PNA is outlooked to develop and bring near normal heights back on March 17th & 18th.

NAEFS for the week of 3/12-3/19 is weakly confident of above normal temperatures in parts of our area. This looks undervalued. 

MJO is in Phase 2 or 3 now, the coldest March climo phases for it. Of course the GEFS has it dying for the millionth time going forward. Regardless getting out of colder phases increases confidence of a non February March next week.

 

00z March 7th GEFS

Below normal 500mb heights pretty much ending by the end of the day.  A -PNA/+EPO/+NAO configuration brings above normal heights on the 9th through the 16th. (One day less than three days ago).  Near normal heights then outlooked.  This ending is caused by a developing +PNA pattern.  NAO & EPO still look positive on the 16th, although the NAO is outlooked to ( 😆 ) turn negative on the 18th.  Below normal heights return on the 19th thru the 21st with near normal heights then returning on the 22nd as the NAO turns positive and PNA ridge relaxes as this run concludes on the 23rd.

NAEFS for the week of 3/15-3/22 is highly confident of near normal temperatures in our area. Their PNA angle of the cold is in the Plains States. 

MJO is in Phase 3. GEFS has it still dying for the millionth time going forward.  Subsequent March phases are warmer, colder, warmer, warmer.  Outlook from Mike's site has a slow moving (they tend to be too slow IMO), but strong (this they do better with) MJO, spending more time in Phase 5 might prolong that PNA spike. Hard to tell from the EC WH outlook if they have the MJO just flying around the globe or just drinking too much of the GEFS' kool-aid.  Anyway my probably wrong take is that the rest of March is more up and down than any prolonged period in any one locked in pattern.

 

00z March 9th GEFS

Except for a continuous 30 hour interlude around Tuesday morning the 12th, above normal 500mb heights prevail into the 17th. (a day later than two days ago).   The developing +PNA pattern brings below normal heights on the 19th (same as two days ago) thru the 23rd (extending it two days longer). Flattening of PNA ridge returns near normal heights to the end of its run on the 24th.  EPO looks mainly positive and any -NAO looks -NAO east.

NAEFS for the week of 3/17-3/24 has our area surrounded by higher confidence of below normal temperatures.  Losing the 15th & 16th is tipping the scales colder.

MJO is in Phase 4.  Want to say eastern part of phase 3 ok.  Regardless of the silly GEFS (among others) WH outlooks phase 5 in March is colder in the northeast. Phases 6 & 7 are warmer.  So this PNA spike and cooler week has MJO support even if the WH outlooks are rofl as to where it thinks it is going.  Beyond that the relaxation makes sense as long as the MJO continues to progress at the same rate of speed. It does sometime slow in 5 & 6.  Just double checked the strat, and there isn't much going on with wave 1 or 2 hits, may be late in the game for them anyway.

 

00z March 11th GEFS

Strongly above normal 500mb heights peak March 12th-16th. Below normal 500mb heights try try try to get into the area on the 17th, but struggle to cover the entire area until the 20th.   BIAS corrected GEFS PNA index peaks on the 18th, but remains somewhat positive thrut as does a +NAO.  EPO returns to a more neutral index look, but I would say looks more positive than negative on the forecast maps.  Below normal heights exit on the 23rd (same as two days ago) as flattening of PNA ridge continues.  A tendency toward above normal heights concludes this run on the 25th & 26th as does a (ha) hint of a -NAO east.

NAEFS for the week of 3/19-3/26 has our area in high confidence of near normal temperatures.   This means either the 17th and/or 18th should be cold, or it was just a warmish modeling jump for a day (it looks like that).  Either way the 500mb tendency looks like a cold start/warmer finish.

MJO is in Phase 4.  Tossing the retrograding WH outlooks and assuming a phase 5 is coming, this corroborates the PNA ridge for next week.  Phases 6 & 7 are warmer.  So either entering the COD (doubt it very much) or exiting phase 5 support the end of the current GEFS/GEPS/EPS, slightly higher confidence than average for that forecast time range.  Warm week/cold week/warm week if all goes accoring to plan. :unsure2:

 

4indices.png

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00z March 7th GEFS

Below normal 500mb heights pretty much ending by the end of the day.  A -PNA/+EPO/+NAO configuration brings above normal heights on the 9th through the 16th. (One day less than three days ago).  Near normal heights then outlooked.  This ending is caused by a developing +PNA pattern.  NAO & EPO still look positive on the 16th, although the NAO is outlooked to ( 😆 ) turn negative on the 18th.  Below normal heights return on the 19th thru the 21st with near normal heights then returning on the 22nd as the NAO turns positive and PNA ridge relaxes as this run concludes on the 23rd.

NAEFS for the week of 3/15-3/22 is highly confident of near normal temperatures in our area. Their PNA angle of the cold is in the Plains States. 

MJO is in Phase 3. GEFS has it still dying for the millionth time going forward.  Subsequent March phases are warmer, colder, warmer, warmer.  Outlook from Mike's site has a slow moving (they tend to be too slow IMO), but strong (this they do better with) MJO, spending more time in Phase 5 might prolong that PNA spike. Hard to tell from the EC WH outlook if they have the MJO just flying around the globe or just drinking too much of the GEFS' kool-aid.  Anyway my probably wrong take is that the rest of March is more up and down than any prolonged period in any one locked in pattern.

 

00z March 9th GEFS

Except for a continuous 30 hour interlude around Tuesday morning the 12th, above normal 500mb heights prevail into the 17th. (a day later than two days ago).   The developing +PNA pattern brings below normal heights on the 19th (same as two days ago) thru the 23rd (extending it two days longer). Flattening of PNA ridge returns near normal heights to the end of its run on the 24th.  EPO looks mainly positive and any -NAO looks -NAO east.

NAEFS for the week of 3/17-3/24 has our area surrounded by higher confidence of below normal temperatures.  Losing the 15th & 16th is tipping the scales colder.

MJO is in Phase 4.  Want to say eastern part of phase 3 ok.  Regardless of the silly GEFS (among others) WH outlooks phase 5 in March is colder in the northeast. Phases 6 & 7 are warmer.  So this PNA spike and cooler week has MJO support even if the WH outlooks are rofl as to where it thinks it is going.  Beyond that the relaxation makes sense as long as the MJO continues to progress at the same rate of speed. It does sometime slow in 5 & 6.  Just double checked the strat, and there isn't much going on with wave 1 or 2 hits, may be late in the game for them anyway.

 

00z March 11th GEFS

Strongly above normal 500mb heights peak March 12th-16th. Below normal 500mb heights try try try to get into the area on the 17th, but struggle to cover the entire area until the 20th.   BIAS corrected GEFS PNA index peaks on the 18th, but remains somewhat positive thrut as does a +NAO.  EPO returns to a more neutral index look, but I would say looks more positive than negative on the forecast maps.  Below normal heights exit on the 23rd (same as two days ago) as flattening of PNA ridge continues.  A tendency toward above normal heights concludes this run on the 25th & 26th as does a (ha) hint of a -NAO east.

NAEFS for the week of 3/19-3/26 has our area in high confidence of near normal temperatures.   This means either the 17th and/or 18th should be cold, or it was just a warmish modeling jump for a day (it looks like that).  Either way the 500mb tendency looks like a cold start/warmer finish.

MJO is in Phase 4.  Tossing the retrograding WH outlooks and assuming a phase 5 is coming, this corroborates the PNA ridge for next week.  Phases 6 & 7 are warmer.  So either entering the COD (doubt it very much) or exiting phase 5 support the end of the current GEFS/GEPS/EPS, slightly higher confidence than average for that forecast time range.  Warm week/cold week/warm week if all goes accoring to plan. :unsure2:

 

00z March 14th GEFS

Strongly above normal 500mb heights go bye bye on the 16th and get replaced by below normal until the 20th.  Same as three days ago.   Still positive PNA with an anomalous trof over the SERN Conus and outlooked offshore cyclogenesis as spring arrives. As PNA is outlook to flatten, above normal heights return on the 23rd. (+EPO/+NAO).  This overall pattern holds to the end of its run through the 29th.  There is either west coast or eastern pacific troffing and any hint of -NAO is -NAO east. 

NAEFS for the week of 3/22-3/29 has confidence of above normal temperatures in our area. This rolled over yesterday after losing cold I am guessing from the 20th & 21st.

MJO is in Phase 5 (or 4?).  It still looks pretty active and outlooks still have it going into the COD. But at least now they have it progressing vs the silly loop de loops into phase 3 they once had.  Mike's site outlopok for the last week of March are warm MJO phases for our area for March. So call me confident about a warmer than average send off to this Smarch.

 

 

am_ir_monthly_60E_1.gif

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

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@Rainshadow I see the vp maps are not in cod but the rmm plots are there. Is this a case of the rmm maps chasing convection? The outlook for the rest of March looks cool to me, do you expect this to change? 

BF1C28E9-44F6-458B-ADAB-3A58895BE383.gif

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@Rainshadow I see the vp maps are not in cod but the rmm plots are there. Is this a case of the rmm maps chasing convection? The outlook for the rest of March looks cool to me, do you expect this to change? 

BF1C28E9-44F6-458B-ADAB-3A58895BE383.gif

Not Gigi, but vp maps look like a rot in phase 5 maybe going towards 6 by way end. Phase 5 in March is cooler than normal  we should see that chart push into 5 slow down then weaken and push weakly into 6 

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Just looking at mjo solely I would think after March 23rd start biasing towards warm. In contrary though, there is some signal of a pretty big Strat pv displacement that could bring a cold shot to start April or last week of March 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@Rainshadow I see the vp maps are not in cod but the rmm plots are there. Is this a case of the rmm maps chasing convection? The outlook for the rest of March looks cool to me, do you expect this to change? 

BF1C28E9-44F6-458B-ADAB-3A58895BE383.gif

The ERSL site still has long wave radiation anomalies as being negative.  I would have liked to have posted the daily vs weekly one,  but the daily one looked funky.  It almost looks like the convection is so strung out that the four is almost a dollar cost average and since no sector has the monopoly that factor could be explaining the COD look above.  But Mike's site still has some pretty strong 200mb VP over northern Australia, et al which would be supportive of convection if it can get going.  So to me I like the chart below that has a semi-active MJO in phase 5 (cold phase for us). Where we go from here gets muddled because if there is a lack of convection, it really wouldn't matter which MJO phase we are in. Phases 6 & 7 are warmer.  I haven't looked at the strat in a while and saw Tom's post. Yeah that is the strongest predicted wave 1 displacement since our strat warming.  So I would almost go with the notion of one week colder, one week warmer, one week colder.

 

8.JPG

809.JPG

 

olr.anom.7day.gif

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