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Rainshadow5.8

February/March Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@tombo82685 @Rainshadow 

 

Why aren’t we seeing a typical response from the mjo being in p8-1? The weak spv? The ensembles are getting worst with the -pna and ridge now 

I think that tweet chubbs posted is going to be spot on. weak vortex with mjo in phase 8-1 leads to -pna is looking pretty damn good right now. You can see it's a very stable pattern. The whole enso state is not nino at all right now. 

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Eps really aren’t buying the Saturday wave even for southern sections. Mean is only like an inch. Looks like euro op was on snowier side. Sunday also trended rather meh with a look like euro op of wave getting sheared out 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

looks cold enough for a swath of 3-5 from dc to miv 

Hey Tom, does that line extend to ACY? 

 

EDIT:  never mind I see your snow map

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30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Eps really aren’t buying the Saturday wave even for southern sections. Mean is only like an inch. Looks like euro op was on snowier side. Sunday also trended rather meh with a look like euro op of wave getting sheared out 

How is Tuesday looking on the EPS?

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20 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

How is Tuesday looking on the EPS?

They look better than 0z. General 2-3” on mean which is up .5-1” from 0z 

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16 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

18z gfs ticked north for Saturday track is now close to the euro

Yup, atleast some decent consensus for south of the city to get a hit possibly. 

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looks like gfs gets .15 to the airport and .1 to just south of tpk. Thing you gotta see here is, is this just a jump to the euro or are we going to start getting some ticks north as we move closer in. We have 3 days to go and only need a slight adjustment, so definitely possible. South of town right now looking good. ANy set back at 0z tonight would almost be the curtain call though.  I'm sure the WEFS will make us all feel good in about 45 mins

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

looks like gfs gets .15 to the airport and .1 to just south of tpk. Thing you gotta see here is, is this just a jump to the euro or are we going to start getting some ticks north as we move closer in. We have 3 days to go and only need a slight adjustment, so definitely possible. South of town right now looking good. ANy set back at 0z tonight would almost be the curtain call though.  I'm sure the WEFS will make us all feel good in about 45 mins

I think for all us regardless of latitude we're going to need to be in the core stripe of QPF, otherwise it will be white rain. To me this looks like a classic example of you either get a few to several inches or you get relatively nothing.

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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

I think for all us regardless of latitude we're going to need to be in the core stripe of QPF, otherwise it will be white rain. To me this looks like a classic example of you either get a few to several inches or you get relatively nothing.

Yea I mean first we have to see if precip even gets up here first. If it does hopefully we can slow the timing a tad and get the precip to start at like 21z

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The WEFS never disappoint, looks like they get .25 past philly and maybe even the tpk? Hard to tell how much of that is from the showers on Fridays aiding into that. Won't really know till I see weatherbell maps. But vista has .25 past the tpk easily. 

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per weatherbell, looks like it gets .25 to about the tpk. Here's snowfall mean 

 

gefs_snow_mean_neng_15.png

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

RGEM not a bad look at 54, not sure if it goes out farther than 54 or if there is an 18z CMC which is an extended version

 

 

18z ggem is the same as 12z just a bit drier. Would be a general 1-3" from m/d line north

SN_000-084_0000.gif

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18z euro ticked a little south from 12z run. Stronger HP building in from west suppresses the flow

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euro was a whiff sat, nothing sunday as that system gets shredded. Then Next week is a little snow over to ice storm 

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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro was a whiff sat, nothing sunday as that system gets shredded. Then Next week is a little snow over to ice storm 

Guidance generally stayed or shifted south for Sat overnight. Only the GEM shows a hit. Need some improvement today.

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33 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

eps mean still looks like a general 2-3" 

Thoughts on the 20th? Looks like it’s more strung out the last few runs 

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