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Rainshadow

February/March Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

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10 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

GFS has a threat on the 19th fwiw 

Nice changes in the NAO/50/50 domain beforehand 

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9 hours ago, White_Mtn_Wx said:

Rain to accumulating snow is a phantom forecast here. I don’t care what the models show, please don’t cite that model forecast before referring to climo/analogs on how often it happens here before invoking that clown show of a possibility.

It happened last March where parts of the area got 6-10 so it can't be that much of a phantom. Happened in 2015 as well and I believe 2014

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Reasonable Day 8/9 snow threat, need the day 5 cutter to form 50/50, a little wimpy on the 06 GEFS below

gef204.gif

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29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

It happened last March where parts of the area got 6-10 so it can't be that much of a phantom. Happened in 2015 as well and I believe 2014

March 4-5, 2015. Started as snow, flipped to rain, flipped back to heavy snow.

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3 minutes ago, cg41386 said:

March 4-5, 2015. Started as snow, flipped to rain, flipped back to heavy snow.

yup, it's happened quite frequently 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

It happened last March where parts of the area got 6-10 so it can't be that much of a phantom. Happened in 2015 as well and I believe 2014

Feb 5 2001 is one of my fav events...it happens

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

It happened last March where parts of the area got 6-10 so it can't be that much of a phantom. Happened in 2015 as well and I believe 2014

Perhaps my statement was a bit exaggerated 😁

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Odd run, prettty big change at H5 compared to older runs, could be a fluke, regardless still wasnt good enough to get snow into the region, some mix into far W burbs

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23 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Odd run, prettty big change at H5 compared to older runs, could be a fluke, regardless still wasnt good enough to get snow into the region, some mix into far W burbs

You're never going to get it cold enough with that look. Starters, hp slides off east coast and you have a southerly flow which torches everything. Second, northern stream low heads to the lakes which torched BL. The chance you may have is with the southern stream low, but you need the northern stream to phase in because thats what brings the cold air in. Gfs didn't do that here thus a cold rain

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This looks a bit more threatening for the weekend. Can see how there is more HP nosing in and the northern stream system is out of the picture

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

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euro now brings some snow into the area this weekend with that system. Went to the ukmet idea. Northern stream cleared the area, HP built in and wave of low pressure came up. not a ton of qpf right now, but that def trended favorable. Solid 50/50 low over canada

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One of the things I look for in the gefs snowfall maps is dispersion. Where is the snowfall. That can give you big hints about upcoming patterns. 

A very positive sign younsee here is the southern snowfall look. That’s indicitive of cold air/boundary to our south. 

AD917B00-F12F-4735-A2BE-C87B7CC99FD3.png

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looks like a general 1" saturday night into sunday morning. Def eager to see eps 

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12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro now brings some snow into the area this weekend with that system. Went to the ukmet idea. Northern stream cleared the area, HP built in and wave of low pressure came up. not a ton of qpf right now, but that def trended favorable. Solid 50/50 low over canada

Quite the changes aloft compared to 0z

4F1309F1-D62C-422C-9BE4-8707B89FBFCE.png

F509CFB2-8F7A-46EE-BD2B-D16C9AF9D628.png

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1 minute ago, irishbri74 said:

Quite the changes aloft compared to 0z

 

 

Yea the first northern stream system cuts, but it leaves the southern stream s/w behind and thats what comes up 

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gefs day 8. Close to a good snow pattern but 50/50 is too far east and SE ridge is flexing. Need some slight changes or good luck with timing.

gef204.gif

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