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Rainshadow

February/March Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Well...our last hope in the 3/20-3/23 range is on fumes but still alive, I guess.  Just enough cold air around before spring arrives in full force with Conus wide warmth.  

Most Op and ensembles pop a coastal a bit too far offshore as the ridge is too far east over the Plains. 

gem-ememb_lowlocs_eus_36.png.cd0ec376bf624e4135fec355ed7f04c0.pnggfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_41.png.293b56e5aeccca9653892cbd5ff830af.png

Euro phases and ramps up a d9-d10 bomb for the fishes.

The EPS at this point remains rather meh.  The GGEM timing solution has two members with 2" or more for PHL, one big one.  Its own timing it has two members with 2" or more, none with anything big.  Like March 3rd-4th it is an either or (one member has it snowing on both days) and not both.

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It looks like some of the models have a wave around the Gulf Coast around Day 6-7...what some of them do is have this wave head NE, but too fast thus not phasing with the canadian shortwave. My guess is we'd want to see a trend for this energy to slow down. The CMC phases this energy. The EURO doesnt phase the energy, but the shortwave from Canada really dives deep and a low explodes but just way too far OTS. That is another possibility, but probably unlikely because by that time the western ridge is too far East. 

The threat is still there IMO. This is an non-scientific BS observation, but I always felt like models had a tougher time in March just because of the wave lengths changing etc. 

 

WEATHER GODS I BEG OF YOU, PLEASE HAVE THIS IDENTICAL LOOKING MAP, BUT STICK THE LOW RIGHT OFF THE NJ COAST PLEASE. K THANKS BYE

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

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34 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

It looks like some of the models have a wave around the Gulf Coast around Day 6-7...what some of them do is have this wave head NE, but too fast thus not phasing with the canadian shortwave. My guess is we'd want to see a trend for this energy to slow down. The CMC phases this energy. The EURO doesnt phase the energy, but the shortwave from Canada really dives deep and a low explodes but just way too far OTS. That is another possibility, but probably unlikely because by that time the western ridge is too far East. 

The threat is still there IMO. This is an non-scientific BS observation, but I always felt like models had a tougher time in March just because of the wave lengths changing etc. 

 

WEATHER GODS I BEG OF YOU, PLEASE HAVE THIS IDENTICAL LOOKING MAP, BUT STICK THE LOW RIGHT OFF THE NJ COAST PLEASE. K THANKS BYE

 

 

I must admit, I love your enthusiasm..

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The 12Z Euro is fairly dry for our region over the next 10 days.

Again, I say play ball instead of let it snow.

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26 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

The 12Z Euro is fairly dry for our region over the next 10 days.

Again, I say play ball instead of let it snow.

The euro isn't out yet. Comes out at 150pm, so it may be at like day 5 right now?

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

The euro isn't out yet. Comes out at 150pm, so it may be at like day 5 right now?

Well Chris has inside info.  It has that mood flake event on the 18th like the GFS, but otherwise didn't look that exciting.

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7 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Man, that euro phase is so close to a 1888 mega storm lol. If only that ridge was farther West... man oh man

Time to let it go!  

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The euro isn't out yet. Comes out at 150pm, so it may be at like day 5 right now?

I flew over to Europe just to give our crew the inside scoop.

You're welcome!

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Out of no where after looking like everything was over the 00z euro almost showed a bomb... without thermals and precip maps idk if it’s cold enough, but even the 6z gfs came close to showing a full phase.... Hope was nearly dead, but here we are...

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9 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Out of no where after looking like everything was over the 00z euro almost showed a bomb... without thermals and precip maps idk if it’s cold enough, but even the 6z gfs came close to showing a full phase.... Hope was nearly dead, but here we are...

Torched thermals 

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38 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Out of no where after looking like everything was over the 00z euro almost showed a bomb... without thermals and precip maps idk if it’s cold enough, but even the 6z gfs came close to showing a full phase.... Hope was nearly dead, but here we are...

The EPS lost all members with 2 inches or more of snow on any day.  The GEFS has 3 members with 2-4" with the mood 500mb trof/vort on Monday/Monday night and nothing with the Euro day 9-10 low.

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The EPS lost all members with 2 inches or more of snow on any day.  The GEFS has 3 members with 2-4" with the mood 500mb trof/vort on Monday/Monday night and nothing with the Euro day 9-10 low.

IMO, better shot at frozen on monday with fresher cold air, not a good shot, but better.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Torched thermals 

Jeez, let me pretend for a few hours at least lol....I do think thermals would work if yougot the phase & ull at the perfect spot....severe long shot

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Well, it seems that all season when the models have actually shown a legitimate threat, most turned out
to be a fantasy (to some degree), so maybe Heisy's fantasy will work the reverse on this one.
Keep the hope Heisy. 😏

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

IMO, better shot at frozen on monday with fresher cold air, not a good shot, but better.

Oh yeah.  Have to start looking for sub 528 thicknesses this time of year as a guarantee for snow as a ptype in scenarios like Monday where intensity looks lighter as the boundary layer can be pretty toasty.  As of now, this looks more of a latitude than ptype question.

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10 hours ago, Chubbs said:

IMO, better shot at frozen on monday with fresher cold air, not a good shot, but better.

12z EPS concurs, 10 of 51 members have some snow on Monday, one 2" or more as opposed to the 23rd which has 6 of 51 with some snow and also one of 2" or more. I guess in can kicking mode there are now 2 members with 2" or more for the 25th.  E8? was as close to a Heisy member as possible, it has it snowing on all the three days. 

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12 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

12z EPS concurs, 10 of 51 members have some snow on Monday, one 2" or more as opposed to the 23rd which has 6 of 51 with some snow and also one of 2" or more. I guess in can kicking mode there are now 2 members with 2" or more for the 25th.  E8? was as close to a Heisy member as possible, it has it snowing on all the three days. 

An inch or less, if not, nothing at all. Most likely more of a chance out to the West/Central part of PA and to the North.

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42 minutes ago, cbelke said:

An inch or less, if not, nothing at all. Most likely more of a chance out to the West/Central part of PA and to the North.

Well if the Euro skillfulness at forecasting nothing holds, that would be the Monday outcome.  Ensemble mean 0.03". That is snow, not water equivalent. OP is way north with any mood flakes: Mitch's house and the Catskills.   GFS is on an island with Monday as of now.  They have all pretty much dropped anything after that.  EPS can kicked a sniff of 2" or more to March 28th.  What Tom posted earlier with this week is still holding for next week, trof axis beyond Monday is too east and the NAO is outlooked to be positive, not a good combo.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Well if the Euro skillfulness at forecasting nothing holds, that would be the Monday outcome.  Ensemble mean 0.03". That is snow, not water equivalent. OP is way north with any mood flakes: Mitch's house and the Catskills.   GFS is on an island with Monday as of now.  They have all pretty much dropped anything after that.  EPS can kicked a sniff of 2" or more to March 28th.  What Tom posted earlier with this week is still holding for next week, trof axis beyond Monday is too east and the NAO is outlooked to be positive, not a good combo.

2" on March 28th would be historic.    There has never been measurable snow at PHL on 3/28 going back 150 years.

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The mood snow on the GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.png.0602168159cc9cd080c837b6cf88ede2.png

7 of the 51 EPS members have some snow on it, one has 2" or more.   OP EC was north the previous night, is south of us tonight.   Solomon has nothing.

Half of the 00Z GEFS members have some snow on them, one has 2" or more.

 

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23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The mood snow on the GFS:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.png.0602168159cc9cd080c837b6cf88ede2.png

7 of the 51 EPS members have some snow on it, one has 2" or more.   OP EC was north the previous night, is south of us tonight.   Solomon has nothing.

Half of the 00Z GEFS members have some snow on them, one has 2" or more.

 

We're pretty much guaranteed to see it because I promised people at work yesterday that we wouldn't see any more snow this winter.

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20 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

We're pretty much guaranteed to see it because I promised people at work yesterday that we wouldn't see any more snow this winter.

Yeah my former produce manager told me yesterday he removed all of the salt from the front of the store & asked me if that was a smart move. No snow Tony til November? Right?

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One last threat March 26/27 with arctic high dropping south as Pacific low approaches. Euro/gfs/fv3 have snow mainly south of us overnight in Va/NC, while gem is a big hit for northern parts of our region.

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