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Rainshadow

February/March Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

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2 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

Man 00z gfs had it, but the 6z GFS repeats an almost dream scenario...get this ull farther S and we talking march 58 esque lol...If we get to this timeframe and the models actually have a sub 960mb low in the gulf of maine you bet your ass im roadtripping...

 

 

gfs_z500_vort_namer_39.png

 

32 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

What could hypothetically screw everything up is if the tpv dives too far SW. 

It's like split personalities. One run we are talking March 58' next run it's nothing cause the op gfs goes another route. :facepalm:  stick with the ensembles. Op runs are going to be a mess trying to handle  tpv and s/w's rotating around it. 

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29 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

If you want to have a weeniegasm check out the day 10 fv3 and press play

Just your run of the mill 60 hr fantasyland snow storm.  

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18 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

Just your run of the mill 60 hr fantasyland snow storm.  

I hope they push back the start of this model til May and they change something internally by next winter.  It is making the CMC look like Einstein when it comes to snow.

That being said, granted its near the edges of when teleconnective skill starts, but having a PNA ridge forecast for the first time in a long time is not a bad thing and one that has been sorely missing.

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The D+11 list of analog dates centered on March 4th do not recite any KU dates.

However, the D+8 list spits out a date one day prior to the 1993 Superstorm and one day prior to the March, 1960 nor'easter.

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13 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

The D+11 list of analog dates centered on March 4th do not recite any KU dates.

However, the D+8 list spits out a date one day prior to the 1993 Superstorm and one day prior to the March, 1960 nor'easter.

Hmm.  The 1993 analog I can sort of see (please everyone read to the finish and not stop at the word see, I don't want to go viral tonight) because we are dealing with at least two streams (vs the three streams that day).  March '60 doesn't seem to make much sense, currently the preceding 50/50 low is forecast to be way gone at this point and it was a pure Miller A.  Actually come to think of it I don't know how you can put the two together as one was a triple phaser and the other a Miller A.

Were there any nickel/dime events?  This is actually the first beyond day 5 pattern since I don't know when that I am not rolling my eyes at.  (That can go viral.  ;) )

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Hmm.  The 1993 analog I can sort of see (please everyone read to the finish and not stop at the word see, I don't want to go viral tonight) because we are dealing with at least two streams (vs the three streams that day).  March '60 doesn't seem to make much sense, currently the preceding 50/50 low is forecast to be way gone at this point and it was a pure Miller A.  Actually come to think of it I don't know how you can put the two together as one was a triple phaser and the other a Miller A.

Were there any nickel/dime events?  This is actually the first beyond day 5 pattern since I don't know when that I am not rolling my eyes at.  (That can go viral.  ;) )

Sorry, winter ended Jan 31st

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1 minute ago, Harbourton said:

You said to rainshadow that winter ends when you said. So i guess you gave up a while ago.

Huh?

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40 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Sorry, winter ended Jan 31st

I thought it ended November 17th.

I don't look this far out, so I will take your word for it since 11 of these are after day 10, is it typical (or that much atypical) to see 12 of 51 EPS members with 6" or more for PHL?  Looks like a centering date of around March 5th?

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14 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I thought it ended November 17th.

I don't look this far out, so I will take your word for it since 11 of these are after day 10, is it typical (or that much atypical) to see 12 of 51 EPS members with 6" or more for PHL?  Looks like a centering date of around March 5th?

On those 12 do they have snow prior? If not then yes that’s a pretty good signal. That’s the timeframe generally where models start diving the tpv south with a pos pna getting going 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Hmm.  The 1993 analog I can sort of see (please everyone read to the finish and not stop at the word see, I don't want to go viral tonight) because we are dealing with at least two streams (vs the three streams that day).  March '60 doesn't seem to make much sense, currently the preceding 50/50 low is forecast to be way gone at this point and it was a pure Miller A.  Actually come to think of it I don't know how you can put the two together as one was a triple phaser and the other a Miller A.

Were there any nickel/dime events?  This is actually the first beyond day 5 pattern since I don't know when that I am not rolling my eyes at.  (That can go viral.  ;) )

One  2.5" snowfall (Feb 16, 1993) and two Traces. The other six were Blurtarskys. I'm very interested to see what pops up tomorrow.

 

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33 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I thought it ended November 17th.

I don't look this far out, so I will take your word for it since 11 of these are after day 10, is it typical (or that much atypical) to see 12 of 51 EPS members with 6" or more for PHL?  Looks like a centering date of around March 5th?

Let's just not replay March 5th, 2001....

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Huh?

On 2/20/2019 at 4:55 PM, tombo82685 said:

You will be done with snow when I say you are, and that’s that 

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10 minutes ago, dryslotted said:

 

I got that part, but I don't get the part where I gave up a while ago lol. I remember posting back on like Feb 2nd that I liked the pattern after the 10th with the -epo and big highs coming down as long as we can get the se ridge to settle down at times it would produce some storms. 

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Anyways, looking at the eps signal for something feb 27/28, then weaker signal in the march 2nd/3rd period. Big signal around march 5th

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:
55 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

On those 12 do they have snow prior? If not then yes that’s a pretty good signal. That’s the timeframe generally where models start diving the tpv south with a pos pna getting going 

 

I don't know prior.  Might have been the first time this winter I looked at the graph beyond day 10.

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I don't know prior.  Might have been the first time this winter I looked at the graph beyond day 10.

can you please make it a habit of looking at them more.. But yea, thats a good signal that far out

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Let's just permanently cancel winter, but then still track all the potential snow events. 

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42 minutes ago, dryslotted said:

Let's just permanently cancel winter, but then still track all the potential snow events. 

"Two inches of snow in spring! It's a miracle!" 

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Anyways, looking at the eps signal for something feb 27/28, then weaker signal in the march 2nd/3rd period. Big signal around march 5th

Something must be brewing 1st week of March, impressive ensemble mean this far out, one of the best of the winter

Screenshot_20190221-221023.jpg

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