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Rainshadow

February/March Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

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The current thread is over 50 pages and don't want to split early next week out.  Please put any threats starting in February in this thread.  Thank-you!

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

I will bump this if necessary to keep it near the top.

Pinned this new topic. We can move any related posts that get further added back in the old one into the new one. 

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18z gefs. By day 10 the TPV has migrated to the maritimes setting up a nice 50/50. Mid-Atlantic snowstorm set-up if the Pacific cooperates.

geff2401_24_18.gif

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The CPC composite maps (D+8 and D+11) have been humdrum for several days, but here's an update.

The D+8 analog CPC composite map centered on February 1 depicts 90% BN temps in the Mid Atlantic and average precipitation.

The D+11 analog CPC composite map centered in February 4 depicts normal temps in the Mid Atlantic and 70% BN precipitation.

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eps are hinting at something around feb 2/3, but that is going to depend on the tpv orientation. Greater risk of suppression with that one so we will need the tpv to life out a bit 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

eps are hinting at something around feb 2/3, but that is going to depend on the tpv orientation. Greater risk of suppression with that one so we will need the tpv to life out a bit 

Deep south could get two snows while you all get missed both north and south, 😢 in the next 10 days, 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

eps are hinting at something around feb 2/3, but that is going to depend on the tpv orientation. Greater risk of suppression with that one so we will need the tpv to life out a bit 

I keep on telling you very cold air stinks.

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50 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I keep on telling you very cold air stinks.

I like it when there is a snow cover to bring that air over. But bare ground no bueno for storms 

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2 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

🤔

7A8F9864-96B8-4B25-9A07-47BD672FB80F.gif

Close as it gets, but interesting trend for folks down south. 

EE4D7CA9-0128-4F42-A107-949BCD568522.png

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40 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

Just please somebody kick me right in the stones. All I keep seeing is the south is due for another not just 1 storm but 2!  

At some point in these threads, please add some substance. If not, take the banter to, well.. the banter thread please. 

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Below is a lala land GEFS. The Atlantic looks pretty good, but the Pacific is a question mark. A big one is certainly possible with a little alteration to this set-up, but its going to depend on the Atlantic and Pacific cooperating in a way they haven't so far this year.

gef312.gif

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12z OP GFS continues to look interesting in the super LR. Looks like a relaxation, but then it wants to send the main trough Eastward by the 5th or so. Looks like some blocking’s showing up at the end of the run too. I truly think Feb is our March of last year. Think by 3rd week of Feb a lot of us are happy. /weenie

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Looks like some Modeling picking up on another disturbance swinging through Friday night into the region. 

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Looks like cutter-ville on each of the D+8 (centered on February 4) and D+11 (centered on February 7) CPC-made analog composite maps. No KU dates at all.

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Without precip maps, but how does that Day 9-10 event on the EURO look? Strong HP in place, but think low tracks too far N (and not enough cold air in place)

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6 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Without precip maps, but how does that Day 9-10 event on the EURO look? Strong HP in place, but think low tracks too far N (and not enough cold air in place)

rain, there is no strong HP in place either. The high is well north of us

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

rain, there is no strong HP in place either. The high is well north of us

Yeah meant to say HP there but well to the N, just wondering, thanks

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like some Modeling picking up on another disturbance swinging through Friday night into the region. 

Did the 12z Euro have anything for Friday? 

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2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Did the 12z Euro have anything for Friday? 

Yea I was going to start a thread for that, unless you want to. Euro had some light snow centered over m/d line that fizzles once to jersey. EPS more bullish on it. Could be a surprise little fluff hit. You would be snowing in like the teens

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I was going to start a thread for that, unless you want to. Euro had some light snow centered over m/d line that fizzles once to jersey. EPS more bullish on it. Could be a surprise little fluff hit. You would be snowing in like the teens

Done, started in the Short Range Discussion area since it's under 5 days out. 

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On 1/28/2019 at 11:31 AM, snowlurker said:

Looks like cutter-ville on each of the D+8 (centered on February 4) and D+11 (centered on February 7) CPC-made analog composite maps. No KU dates at all.

AN and very cutter-ish for the D+8 (centered on February 5) and D+11 (centered on February 8) CPC-made analog composite maps. As you might imagine, no KU dates.

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9 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

AN and very cutter-ish for the D+8 (centered on February 5) and D+11 (centered on February 😎 CPC-made analog composite maps. As you might imagine, no KU dates.

Lurker, you are doing well with this even if there are no KU(s). Were there any measurable days?

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