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Rainshadow

The Government Shutdown Is Degrading The GFS

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But didn't the Gfs call for the change to colder first before the Euro? And hasn't Ncep been putting their efforts toward the Fv3 and not the Gfs which was to be retired,? Doesn't pass the smell test imho. Frankly, and I hate to even broach the subject,  but you don't have to be a political junky to know that the owner of the Washington Post and current administration are at odds daily. I'll leave it at that.

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9 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

But didn't the Gfs call for the change to colder first before the Euro? And hasn't Ncep been putting their efforts toward the Fv3 and not the Gfs which was to be retired,? Doesn't pass the smell test imho. Frankly, and I hate to even broach the subject,  but you don't have to be a political junky to know that the owner of the Washington Post and current administration are at odds daily. I'll leave it at that.

Yeah the GFS is being kept stable.  But if a change in coding in observations is not implemented in the model, those observations dont get it.  There is no denying that current GFS skill scores have been hugging or even worse than the dreadfully performing GGEM since around Christmas.  Since Christmas day the JMA day 5 skill score has beat the GFS on seven days. That is not a good thing no matter the reason. 

The GFS has been calling for a change (or continuation of) to colder for a month.  It single handedly degraded the NAEFS week 2 temp outlooks by keeping us in near normal while PHL the last three weeks has averaged about 8F above normal. 

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I guess there are lies, dam lies & statistics.  All models are down vs this time last year (I know not a true month to month comparison) & since November.  I honestly don't know if its statistically significant or not.  Either way the GFS is down more than others no matter the cause.

What happened on November 15th?  ;)

 

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1 hour ago, frankdp23 said:

I wonder if they are flipping the on switch now for the para-gfs?  😄

It is delayed. Most of the EMC staff was not working, so I am guessing it will be sometime in February. Glad the shutdown is over.

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