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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

It’d be fun to get a 00z NAMmed run here....even if 6z comes back to earth one last time. 

not sure you will here, better push from northern stream this run

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I just realized my snowblower won't start. Ugh. 

Roads are already snow covered here. Going to be nasty tonight with low temps. 

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Folks....include your location with your posts!!

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

not sure you will here, better push from northern stream this run

eeek, nvm now better hgt rises along east coast. 

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Just now, snowwors2 said:

Folks....include your location with your posts!!

well their locations are under their username

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Not showing on my iPhone unless I tap on their name 

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1 minute ago, snowwors2 said:

Not showing on my iPhone unless I tap on their name 

Oooo, yea on phones it won't show

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Heights touch higher but confluence stronger.  Nothing dramatic.  C'mon nam!

namconus_z500_vort_neus_fh11_trend.gif

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

Heights touch higher but confluence stronger.  Nothing dramatic.  C'mon nam!

 

Yea the hgts respond abit better but the northern stream is stout this run. Can see better CAD signature on the nam this run with pressures. 

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A very fine dry snow starting to coat cars as vis drops a bit in National Park NJ, NW Gloucester county across the river from PHL...coating level already reached soon


 

 

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12k and 32k NAM still has it snowing over SE portion of forecast area at midnite tomorrow nite...can't say NAM is out of its range now, if it doesn't verify all on the model itself...if it's right, coastal overperformer, theme of the season so far despite past performance not being an indicator of future results...

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2 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Nice hit for SNJ and DE, Tombo avoids the ban

 

Should bring the srefs back to earth the next run they have

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17 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Didn't @Rainshadow say crazy things can happen under a closed low in the wintee?

Until this northward trending stops I am not ruling anything out

namconus_z500_vort_neus_fh36_trend (1).gif

There always is a surprise under a closed low, but DeBeaches looks more surprise prone than DeGilly Tom.

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Should bring the srefs back to earth the next run they have

Now that was a jinx post by me (hey the sref have not been that bad this winter).

Although who reads the fine print?  :(

If the SREF does not go into bimodal physics corners, it may not be bad with this one either.... 

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12 hours ago, anowal01 said:

12k and 32k NAM still has it snowing over SE portion of forecast area at midnite tomorrow nite...can't say NAM is out of its range now, if it doesn't verify all on the model itself...if it's right, coastal overperformer, theme of the season so far despite past performance not being an indicator of future results...

NAM know bias is to place surface lows too far northwest into the cold air.  This isnt done yet by any stretch, but that has to be taken into consideration.   The other factor is while its idea and ptype can be right, its qpf is often poor especially when a coastal low becomes involved. One has to go somewhere else, anywhere else, to find a model with a similar track solution to use their qpf.  

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Now that was a jinx post by me (hey the sref have not been that bad this winter).

Although who reads the fine print?  :(

If the SREF does not go into bimodal physics corners, it may not be bad with this one either.... 

the thing is though, they really didn't. I mean year the arw where insanely wet. But the nmb's were wet too. Out of the whole sref disfunctonal family only 3 members had less than .4 at 21z last night

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

NAM know bias is to place surface lows too far northwest into the cold air.  This isnt done yet by any stretch, but that has to be taken into consideration.   The other factor is while its idea and ptype can be right, its qpf is often poor especially when a coastal low becomes involved. One has to go somewhere else, anywhere else, to find a model with a similar track solution to use their qpf.  

Perfect description and explanation why of "if it doesn't verify it's on the model itself", thanks.

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Should bring the srefs back to earth the next run they have

Didn't have a chance to respond about getting a low to go near/west of Hatteras and PHL getting not much snow out of it yesterday.  The 500mb flow where the low formed was more zonal than usual.  Hard to back up the track that much.

 1.JPG.09e66392c9790c162f8d6e626d353c14.JPG

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2 hours ago, anowal01 said:

Perfect description and explanation why of "if it doesn't verify it's on the model itself", thanks.

You can see this too with the secondary cyclogenesis this morning in the southeast.  Follow 1020 isobar and see how it sags toward the coast and how the NAM had the surface low too far to the northwest in earlier runs.  It may not matter for your area, but it mattered for PHL.

index.gif.12c5edb2aa0ff03b7fd36897cba38c56.gif

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