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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

18z Icon now brings .5 into philly

 

Uh oh Tommy boy....didn’t you lower your ban level to 6”?

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Just now, Heisenberg said:

Uh oh Tommy boy....didn’t you lower your ban level to 6”?

yup, not worried though.

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The big question, especially for S NJ is where that CCB sets up around tomorrow evening....that could be a big bust factor 

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The Icon gets precip into the city tomorrow 00z onward...will it be right? Idk....but it could be the sleeper factor here. 

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Yep GFS a nice bump N with precip totals...I’m in NE Philly so wouldn’t be shocked if I get 1.5” or so while center city gets 3 or even 4...its going to be that type of event IMO

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.3 on the gefs now into phl intl, creeping north

gefs_qpf_mean_neng_11.png

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

.3 on the gefs now into phl intl, creeping north

gefs_qpf_mean_neng_11.png

Over 6" to the North?! 😉

 

Sorry buddy. Threw you under the bus on Twitter. 

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1 minute ago, phillysports11 said:

Tom you are the man!

Tom can't see this post. He's banned himself already because he knows in his heart what's coming.

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Don't really need to much more of a nudge north to get S Philly into 4-6 inch range with higher ratios. Im in far NE philly right on the border of bucks co. so anything over an inch here and I'll be happy.

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3 minutes ago, MattMal88 said:

Don't really need to much more of a nudge north to get S Philly into 4-6 inch range with higher ratios. Im in far NE philly right on the border of bucks co. so anything over an inch here and I'll be happy.

I am in Washington Crossing, I feel your pain! An inch would be perfect. 

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Looking at radars, it looks like its pushing a bit further North.  Dry air may negate any increase in snow up this way. 

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1 minute ago, cbelke said:

Looking at radars, it looks like its pushing a bit further North.  Dry air may negate any increase in snow up this way. 

there will be lots of virga your way and northeast. Still hasn't started here at work. You may grab an inch

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

there will be lots of virga your way and northeast. Still hasn't started here at work. You may grab an inch

Yup, radar motion in the Charleston, VA area seems to be pushing NE, but that motion will slow and the moisture torn apart.  I agree. Virga will be the winner up here. 

 

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Flakes in northern delco started about 20 min ago, 29.8/18.3dp. Expecting about 3”, although I do think an above avg chance of overperformance as all model trends have been N today and have not come to a halt

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol sref means

Don’t leave us hangin’...

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lol srefs have over 1" mean at phl qpf. While the arw's are the wet ones carrying the weight the NMB's are still darn wet too. Only 3 of them less than .4 qpf out of all the srefs.  I'll sell on that but fun to look at

 

 

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