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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said:

Lower? ;) 4" would make things interesting :)

Tony could handle running the show while your away :)

 

 

 

 

I doubt that Tony would be up for the PBP at 0z, so Philly better stay below...

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this is what I'm thinking right now. Unless the euro goes further north than say icon or further south than gfs I'll hold with this

Untitled2647.png

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geps are the wettest of the ens right now. bring .5 into philly now at 12z run

 

5c3a230d820b4.png

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

geps are the wettest of the ens right now. bring .5 into philly now at 12z run

 

5c3a230d820b4.png

I assume that you are using it just for goalposting/outlier identification/trends since it's just about now time?

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Just now, snowlurker said:

I assume that you are using it just for goalposting/outlier identification/trends since it's just about now time?

Just posting it in general to show trends. I don’t believe those qpf amts right now but wanted to lay out every piece of guidance we have. 

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Yeah, going to be fun to see the 18z NAM come back to earth...idk why it has these crazy runs close to events...like your map Tom btw.

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euro is generally the same for philly on north.. south of town is wetter, better coastal impacts

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Yeah coastal looks much better on EURO...compared to yesterdays 12z the coastal low position is much farther W....still need a better trend for us though

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47 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

this is what I'm thinking right now. Unless the euro goes further north than say icon or further south than gfs I'll hold with this

Untitled2647.png

If I was drawing a map that is exactly how I would have done so - nice job Tom!!

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

this is what I'm thinking right now. Unless the euro goes further north than say icon or further south than gfs I'll hold with this

Good map. 3" is my target here in the middle of the 2-4 zone. The coastal is still a bit of a wildcard. Those in Tom's  3-6 or 4-8 zones are the ones most likely to see an upside surprise.

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43 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

 

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_nj_10.png

Depressing...

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My goodness,  this fraud on FB put out a map for a foot of snow for us, I immediately unfollowed him, the crap people put out there. That's like me texting everyone the FV3 totals for next weekend.  Good thing I have you guys! Sorry for being  a pain in the ass!

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4 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

My goodness,  this fraud on FB put out a map for a foot of snow for us, I immediately unfollowed him, the crap people put out there. That's like me texting everyone the FV3 totals for next weekend.  Good thing I have you guys! Sorry for being  a pain in the ass!

probably posted the 12z nam

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21 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Depressing...

going to be painful, for sure

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NAM came back around and has a similar-ish look to the majority of models when it comes to precip expanse etc.....this is going to be a tough one to swallow. 

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

NAM came back around and has a similar-ish look to the majority of models when it comes to precip expanse etc.....this is going to be a tough one to swallow. 

it's atleast better on the northern side. Still a pretty wet run compared to everything else. .4 into philly

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6 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

NAM came back around and has a similar-ish look to the majority of models when it comes to precip expanse etc.....this is going to be a tough one to swallow. 

I'd take a tough one to swallow with the snow over a tough one to swallow tomorrow evening with the game.     Anything over an inch would be a pleasant surprise.

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Latest AFD from Mt. Holly.

Downstream will feature confluent midlevel flow as ridging off the Southeast coast meets a digging northern-stream perturbation in eastern Canada and adjacent portions of the Northeast. This confluent flow will act to shear apart the central U.S. midlevel vort max with time, with the surface low likely gradually weakening as it moves eastward.

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Didn't @Rainshadow say crazy things can happen under a closed low in the wintee?

Until this northward trending stops I am not ruling anything out

namconus_z500_vort_neus_fh36_trend (1).gif

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18z Icon now brings .5 qpf into philly

 

5c3a555050433.png

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