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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I do think it has the right idea with a shift N, all of the models are showing a higher heights out ahead of the S/W and a stronger S/W in general this AM, but I think that will benefit the area where the coastal will have an impact like VA/MD/S DE.....I’d be excited if I lived there right now....someone could get a foot IMO. 

Yea If I was south of town this is very encouraging. Going to be a nice system for interior south jersey and central and southern DE

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

6 it is then

Lower? ;) 4" would make things interesting :)

Tony could handle running the show while your away :)

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

It's inevitable.  Tombo is getting banned.

gfs_z500_mslp_eus_fh12_trend.gif

Long ways to go still on the gfs. 

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Still Tom, take a look at that shortwave right off the NJ coast at 36 hours....this is an interesting feature showing up now on the models...could enhance precip in our area if it is correct IMO....GFS did bump N especially for sections S of the city. 

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12z gfs, slight pullback on the tpv. We said days ago this would come to the wire.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh24_trend.gif

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Just now, Heisenberg said:

Still Tom, take a look at that shortwave right off the NJ coast at 36 hours....this is an interesting feature showing up now on the models...could enhance precip in our area if it is correct IMO....GFS did bump N especially for sections S of the city. 

Sections north of the city of 95 just 40 minutes could use some help! Any luck?

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

Weenie or not, that's a steady trend for an even closer heartbreak lol

 

yup, this is the famous Yoda north trend inside 36hrs

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

yup, this is the famous Yoda north trend inside 36hrs

This is very similar to the December storm. Sag south for a couple days and then come back at the end.

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I don't know why anyone is surprised. This happens all the time. The heaviest snow will end up 30 miles west or north of where the final model puts it too.

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ggem with a little bump north. gets .2 to philly intl

gem_apcpn_neus_8.png

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21 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

Lower? ;) 4" would make things interesting :)

Tony could handle running the show while your away :)

 

 

 

 

Tony can barely keep his PC up and running.  So the jog to the northwest has occurred.  Never seen that occur before. :rolleyes: This is becoming in the bank for Cape May-Sussex (DE), Talbot & Caroline and I would say the next tier of counties northwest are definitely in the running.

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27 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

Lower? ;) 4" would make things interesting :)

Tony could handle running the show while your away :)

 

 

 

 

Lol no, thats making it a bit easier. Plus without me here things would fall apart. While yoda is a man of great knowledge his old ways have not excelled in technology. He's still lagging in the stone age

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15 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

This is very similar to the December storm. Sag south for a couple days and then come back at the end.

Tom thought Richmond with that one, but he was a bit too south.  But there was a layer of wsw that was issued to the north as the event was ongoing.  This sure looks protracted for Delmarva. 

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Tony can barely keep his PC up and running.  So the jog to the northwest has occurred.  Never seen that occur before. :rolleyes: This is becoming in the bank for Cape May-Sussex (DE), Talbot & Caroline and I would say the next tier of counties northwest are definitely in the running.

So close, yet so far away.

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Just now, SalemCountyNJ said:

So close, yet so far away.

Lol who knows. Beside this is not March 15th, so winter has only just begun.

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Think you said this earlier Tom, but I’ll repeat it to an extent. If I woke up from a coma and just opened up the national radar I would think you were joking if you told me this storm would be missing south with precip all the way to Chicago right now...It is quite amazing. 

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1 minute ago, SalemCountyNJ said:

So close, yet so far away.

enjoy the 2-4 thats coming for you

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

Think you said this earlier Tom, but I’ll repeat it to an extent. If I woke up from a coma and just opened up the national radar I would think you were joking if you told me this storm would be missing south with precip all the way to Chicago right now...It is quite amazing. 

not often you weakly snow into a 1032 pressure though thats the issue. There is an insane amount of dry air east of the apps. 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol no, thats making it a bit easier. Plus without me here things would fall apart. While yoda is a man of great knowledge his old ways have not excelled in technology. He's still lagging in the stone age

So your saying PHL is getting 4" then ;) 

Congrats southern folks!

OBS thread created....

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2 minutes ago, Debeaches said:

Is this model any good?

 

yea it's not bad, but may be a bit far out in its range. Regardless, trends this morning I'd say 3-6 for you before some mixing. 

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Forecast - Lots of virga induced radar hallucinations starting this evening....

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bump north on gefs, almost .3 into philly but man that dry tongue north of town

gefs_qpf_mean_neng_15.png

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Wow I’m getting excited in the 3 years I’ve been in Baltimore this will actually be the biggest snow potentially so I’m not gonna complain. Could get to 4-5” 

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