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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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3 minutes ago, Debeaches said:

No surprise- this happens often down here. It is what it is and there’s nothing I can do about it

I would not worry about what nam shows. Now if other models show it then start to believe it. But I would not change your opinion off the nam

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3km nam says nam you're drunk, like usual.

nam3km_apcpn_neus_11.png

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Guess it's time to say it, if philly gets 10" out of this I'll ban myself till Spring

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5 minutes ago, Debeaches said:

No surprise- this happens often down here. It is what it is and there’s nothing I can do about it

 Even if you change to rain the snow on both ends is going to be probably thrice as much as what we get in Burlington County.  I wouldn't be too concerned.

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Guess it's time to say it, if philly gets 10" out of this I'll ban myself till Spring

Dude, you are getting slow, I would have expected this post 15 minutes ago.😛

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Dude, you are getting slow, I would have expected this post 15 minutes ago.😛

I just woke up and saw it

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can add the rgem to the 3km nam list that says the nam is drunk

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I just woke up and saw it

You should have responded in your sleep, you know there is always one of these NAM runs with every snow event.  Even if the idea ok there could be a slower exit of the secondary has merit (which it may), the solution becomes so bombastic it is as useful in a forecast adjustment as air conditioning is on Pluto.  

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

You should have responded in your sleep, you know there is always one of these NAM runs with every snow event.  Even if the idea ok there could be a slower exit of the secondary has merit (which it may), the solution becomes so bombastic it is as useful in a forecast adjustment as air conditioning is on Pluto.   

Yea I mean the 3km and rgem did back hgts a bit better towards the coast but the nam's h5 look was very close to the euro. So basically the nam takes a 1 dollar bill and turns it into a 100 dollar bill when in reality it should still be a one dollar bill

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I mean the 3km and rgem did back hgts a bit better towards the coast but the nam's h5 look was very close to the euro. So basically the nam takes a 1 dollar bill and turns it into a 100 dollar bill when in reality it should still be a one dollar bill

Leaving Pluto and coming back to Earth, the northern extent of the snow in the Midwest is being handled well by the models, so no south side surprise. At least with phase one, for better or worse, that northern extent question is holding well.

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9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Leaving Pluto and coming back to Earth, the northern extent of the snow in the Midwest is being handled well by the models, so no south side surprise. At least with phase one, for better or worse, that northern extent question is holding well.

Yea Bucks co through LV are going to be pulling their hair out seeing sw chester co snowing well while they see flurries. Its the opposite of cad situation. northeast parts of the area hold onto CAD the longest and in this setup you don't want that. Thus they are the driest. My bar is set at an inch of snow tonight here. I'll be at work till midnight, so they should do a bit better. 

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47 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Guess it's time to say it, if philly gets 10" out of this I'll ban myself till Spring

you can go lower, come on now, gamble a little :) 

how about 6"?

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2 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

you can go lower, come on now, gamble a little :) 

how about 6"?

2nd

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Icon made a nice bump north

icon_apcpn_neus_17.png

How does ICON do? I never payed attention to that model until seeing it on here not knowing the whole time it's on tibits, ha. As for a shift to the north, how likely vs unlikely is it?

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3 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

you can go lower, come on now, gamble a little :) 

how about 6"?

6 it is then

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I can't recall to many times where a primary goes into KY and philly gets less than .2 qpf, but only in this winter it will find a way if it happens. 

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Do we not see this every time where there is always a last minute slight adjustment to the north?

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This is that famous NAM run that happens close to an event that makes everyone lose their &#^*....The most famous one IMO is the one that happened for NYC right before the Juno storm I believe in NE few years back when I storm chased to Rhode Island. Think there was a 00z or 18z run literally right b4 the storm that shifted W big time, but it came back to earth on the very next run. 

This is why we use models as a tool, not gospel. If we saw some other models do what the NAM just did we could put maybe some credence towards it, but it is all alone and is just doing its own typical BS run. 

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Just now, Heisenberg said:

This is that famous NAM run that happens close to an event that makes everyone lose their &#^*....The most famous one IMO is the one that happened for NYC right before the Juno storm I believe in NE few years back when I storm chased to Rhode Island. Think there was a 00z or 18z run literally right b4 the storm that shifted W big time, but it came back to earth on the very next run. 

This is why we use models as a tool, not gospel. If we saw some other models do what the NAM just did we could put maybe some credence towards it, but it is all alone and is just doing its own typical BS run. 

The trend it had is correct, but it just takes a little adjustment and blows it way out of proportion. 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

The trend it had is correct, but it just takes a little adjustment and blows it way out of proportion. 

I do think it has the right idea with a shift N, all of the models are showing a higher heights out ahead of the S/W and a stronger S/W in general this AM, but I think that will benefit the area where the coastal will have an impact like VA/MD/S DE.....I’d be excited if I lived there right now....someone could get a foot IMO. 

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Or....this could be a replay of the famous Eagles/Lions game storm where the morning of no models showed what occurred until the 12z run during the event. 

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