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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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LOL- models all bounced south at 00z and bounced back at 06z. Some impressive amounts  - DC to S De

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

LOL- models all bounced south at 00z and bounced back at 06z. Some impressive amounts  - DC to S De

Double doinked.  

WAA made a better push then coastal bumped North and hangs along the coast, will be some nice totals for @Debeaches

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NAM Cobb output for phl - ratios down slightly vs ytday - 12:1 avg.

190113/0400Z  22  VRB02KT  27.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   10:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
190113/0500Z  23  VRB01KT  27.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    8:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
190113/0600Z  24  VRB02KT  27.6F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    9:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190113/0700Z  25  VRB02KT  27.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
190113/0800Z  26  04003KT  27.8F  SNOW   19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   10:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
190113/0900Z  27  05004KT  27.8F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   10:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
190113/1000Z  28  04005KT  27.8F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   10:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
190113/1100Z  29  05006KT  27.8F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014   11:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0
190113/1200Z  30  05006KT  27.4F  SNOW   14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014   11:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190113/1300Z  31  05007KT  27.0F  SNOW   15:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   12:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
190113/1400Z  32  05008KT  26.9F  SNOW   16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   12:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
190113/1500Z  33  05008KT  27.2F  SNOW   14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   12:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17  100|  0|  0
190113/1600Z  34  05009KT  27.8F  SNOW   13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014   12:1|  2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
190113/1700Z  35  04009KT  28.3F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   12:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
190113/1800Z  36  05009KT  28.8F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   12:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190113/1900Z  37  05009KT  29.4F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005   12:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21  100|  0|  0

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euro also bounced back at 06z - phl around 0.15 liquid

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12 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

euro also bounced back at 06z - phl around 0.15 liquid

2nd straight day where the 06z model runs all collectively go north again.  Well we are practically within nowcast time anyway.  Yes congrats St. Mary's County on being NAMMED.  I have had alot of computer issues the past two days.  Saw your post about the ggem; their snowfall forecast looks reasonable.  Solomon tends to be wet with qpf, but it did finally come north and even taking that into consideration looks pretty good for Cape May & Sussex (DE) Counties and maybe Talbot & Caroline also.

 

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

2nd straight day where the 06z model runs all collectively go north again.  Well we are practically within nowcast time anyway.  Yes congrats St. Mary's County on being NAMMED.  I have had alot of computer issues the past two days.  Saw your post about the ggem; their snowfall forecast looks reasonable.  Solomon tends to be wet with qpf, but it did finally come north and even taking that into consideration looks pretty good for Cape May & Sussex (DE) Counties and maybe Talbot & Caroline also.

 

Wes in the bullseye

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7 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Wes in the bullseye

I thought I saw a NAMMing of St. Louis yesterday. 

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8 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I thought I saw a NAMMing of St. Louis yesterday. 

Yeah, they have a shot at a record snowfall. I posted about the gfs/GEFS jet structure a couple of days ago. What looked good for a cycle or two trended away again. Now its on the rebound again - hence the nice bullseye down there.

gfs-ens_uv250_us_fh42_trend.gif

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3 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Yeah, they have a shot at a record snowfall. I posted about the GEFS jet structure a couple of days ago. What looked good for a cycle or two trended away again. Now its on the rebound again - hence the nice bullseye down there.

gfs-ens_uv250_us_fh42_trend.gif

What little I have seen of features the past two days, decent fgen forcing has always been there. But in modeling fashion, they will be too wide.

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Here in NW Chesco this event looks like a carbon copy of December's sole snowfall - another .2" coating.     The out of season November storm carries the season so far.

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Latest SREF for phl. The NAM could be interesting.

canvas.png

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Latest SREF for PTW up to mean of 5"....

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Here are the individuals. Looks like ratios help. Also need to see other guidance confirm

sref51.gif

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12 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Latest SREF for phl. The NAM could be interesting.

canvas.png

Unfortunately the SREF has reached the land of useless information with this event unless one feels good about forecasting 1" to 21". It is the arw physics family that has gone beserk in both directions.  The 1" to 10" spread among nam physics family members I guess you can say is twice as precise.

 

1.JPG

2.JPG

3.JPG

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Unfortunately the SREF has reached the land of useless information with this event unless one feels good about forecasting 1" to 24". It is the arw physics family that has gone beserk in both directions.

Nam is looking very Nammy

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1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

Nam is looking very Nammy

Lol DaBeaches gets DaChange to DaRain on DaNAM.

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17 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Lol DaBeaches gets DaChange to DaRain on DaNAM.

No surprise- this happens often down here. It is what it is and there’s nothing I can do about it

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