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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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6 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

GFS says no soup for you!

 

Again having set my bar at smoking cirrus any flakes I see will feel like a surprise.  Don't be surprised to see this get drier and drier in our CWA as we get closer.  

I'd be shocked if you had less than an inch IMO

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Keeping in mind that model output is guidance, not a verbatim forecast tool, I get the sense the globals are setting the goalposts...GFS suppressed, GGEM amped (assuming it folows RGEM)...with the Euro holding somewhere in between.  Sounds awfully familiar...

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UKMET nice move north, inline with ggem. Nice hit for southern sections. 

GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

UKMET nice move north, inline with ggem. Nice hit for southern sections. 

GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

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fv3...general .25 -.3 from ptw-dyl-ttn on south.... we take

fv3p_apcpn_neus_11.png

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Ukie was a little late to the party this time around.. would think (hope) euro tics a bit north here also.. 

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19 minutes ago, Dhen398 said:

Ukie was a little late to the party this time around.. would think (hope) euro tics a bit north here also.. 

If the euro does start beefing things up, it'll be the last to the party.

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21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

fv3...general .25 -.3 from ptw-dyl-ttn on south.... we take

fv3p_apcpn_neus_11.png

That would be great if that verified, but I'd be quite surprised.      Aside from minor shifts here and there, the consensus has been pretty clear for a while

that we're too far north for this one to give us anything but less than advisory level accums.

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13 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

That would be great if that verified, but I'd be quite surprised.      Aside from minor shifts here and there, the consensus has been pretty clear for a while

that we're too far north for this one to give us anything but less than advisory level accums.

I said it like 3 days ago, if you're looking for 6+ this isn't your storm. But if 1-3/2-4 is good for you that can happen. Which is what that is showing there

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Comparing 6z euro to 12z, southern s/w a hair further north. hgts along the east coast a bit higher. Most notable hgt rise is out in plains with digging s/w 

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South jersey and most of DE does well with the coastal on the euro. Should be about the same as 6z euro maybe a bit wetter

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tight gradient on euro. .25 line moved up to acy-ilg, but .1 line moved down 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I'd be shocked if you had less than an inch IMO

I agree with you actually, but I am being somewhat sarcastic and I just never was a fan of this one.  If I can run my new plow setup for my UTV I will be ecstatic! 

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45E681D4-D1C3-4958-B10A-57352D1E1224.png.f7bdfb9000670e37c89619cc4ab2fc23.png

I think that the Mt Holly NWS map is pretty solid ... Maybe even a bit higher than my own expectations for the region at the moment!

 

Even with the very anemic QPF, ratios may bump up snow totals by a half inch to an inch, though my main concern regarding ratios is that insufficient lift/lift in the wrong areas, as well as snirga/dry air, will limit totals and ratios.

I only bring this up because I've seen on a couple websites some talk about ratios due to the colder air mass, but ratios are a bit trickier than having the right amount of cold ... Just something to keep in mind! I know many of y'all are pretty aware of this, but I wanted to say it explicitly for anyone who may be banking on ratios. Regardless, should be better than 10:1 

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2 minutes ago, Treckasec said:

 

I think that the Mt Holly NWS map is pretty solid ... Maybe even a bit higher than my own expectations for the region at the moment!

 

Even with the very anemic QPF, ratios may bump up snow totals by a half inch to an inch, though my main concern regarding ratios is that insufficient lift/lift in the wrong areas, as well as snirga/dry air, will limit totals and ratios.

I only bring this up because I've seen on a couple websites some talk about ratios due to the colder air mass, but ratios are a bit trickier than having the right amount of cold ... Just something to keep in mind! I know many of y'all are pretty aware of this, but I wanted to say it explicitly for anyone who may be banking on ratios. Regardless, should be better than 10:1 

The dry air is going to be a pain, thats for sure. Just cause its cold doesn't mean you get over 10-1. You need lift in the dgz too. I think that map is solid as well. With latest trends I'd think about bumping up central and southern DE away from coast.

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Here are the last 4 12z euro runs. Convergence bouncing around with an improvement today. The system has been trending stronger with better height rises out ahead.

ecmwf_z500a_us_fh24_trend.gif

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4 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Here are the last 4 12z euro runs. Convergence bouncing around with an improvement today. The system has been trending stronger with better height rises out ahead.

 

Be nice to get that tpv out of there a bit more. Would really help the WAA portion of this as well as coastal

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I wonder if we can get a December Eagles/Lions snow event type deal where a band sets up right in that confluence zone. It isn’t impossible since the models are all showing that overrunning stuff out ahead of the main short wave. We’ll see. Anything over an inch of snow in the city would be a win in my books, especially if we can cash in next weekend. 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

The dry air is going to be a pain, thats for sure. Just cause its cold doesn't mean you get over 10-1. You need lift in the dgz too. I think that map is solid as well. With latest trends I'd think about bumping up central and southern DE away from coast.

Here is the phl gfs sounding as  the snow is beginning. Generally light winds in the column with  east winds in the lowest levels. So  better chance of overcoming dry air than some storms with a steady dry air feed from a strong high.

index.png

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Just a drive by posting, have to reload Windows 10 on our PC and our internet speed just sucks. It looks like it will finish on Sunday. 

Anyway the farther north pcpn gets into/through Iowa & Illinois, the better down the road. Looks like when that goes north, wave goes north. 

models have been predicting fgen banding with this, so there should be an upside surprise; nam only within 24hrs for this.

lack of omega in dendritic growth zone and light intensity (non fgen places) don't be shocked about 11:1/12:1 even with every flake sticking.

last cold season the eps had the best snowfall skill for PHL & a surprise  Captain Obvious pronouncement the NAM was the worst.

If the SREF does not go into bimodal physics corners, it may not be bad with this one either....

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