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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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8 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

Any chance the confluence will become a bit weaker to allow to come north?

The coastal I’m not sure on. I’m hoping for better WAA

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Many many times we have all seen when it looks like a couple inches and last minute the totals go up. I take it that is what happens when confluence is our friend.

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As always, a lot of great analysis but I truly hope, once we get into a serious snow threat, that the idle chat/banter etc can move to “winter banter” thread!!

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gfs a bit more generous with the WAA snow as the s/w is a bit sharper.  would support 2-3" in some areas.

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Latest Wxsim program continues to show a light snow event for the NW Chester County PA area of East Nantmeal Township. Currently it looks like light snow arrives by 6pm on Sat eve. with moderate snow by midnight with it all over by 9am Sunday morning with between 1.5" to 2.0" of snow

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I would take this in a heart beat with the WAA snows on the fv3 gfs. Thats the one thing I think we can possibly see trend better in next 48-60hrs is the WAA snows. Coastal is shot in my eyes

 

fv3p_apcpn_neus_15.png

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Hopefully we can get the 18z euro to bump totals up on the WAA

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19 minutes ago, FatJack07 said:

Could we expect better than 10:1 ratios with the dynamics on Saturday night?

There will certainly be some decent bands of snow, within those is where you get good lift that is the best chance of higher ratios. Just because you have cold, doesn't automatically mean good ratios. You need lift in the dgz. Also helps that it's not windy aloft either. I would say best chance for good lift is west of town.

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20 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I would take this in a heart beat with the WAA snows on the fv3 gfs. Thats the one thing I think we can possibly see trend better in next 48-60hrs is the WAA snows. Coastal is shot in my eyes

I'm hoping this is like the Dec system, which sagged south only to recover in the last day or two. FV3 is certainly doable with a slightly stonger system, more like the euro actually,  and slightly weaker convergence.

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15 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

 

I'm hoping this is like the Dec system, which sagged south only to recover in the last day or two. FV3 is certainly doable with a slightly stonger system, more like the euro actually,  and slightly weaker convergence.

Agreed the probability is it will not be too windy aloft should help....despite the dry air....certainly nothing major - but when you have seen nothing at since Mid-November you take....

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18z euro about the same, maybe a little drier, generally under .1 qpf from acy to ilg to ptw on north and east. S/w is stronger but the euro is much stronger with the pv streamer compared to the gfs and the timing absolutely sucks on it. Wetter generally in OH valley but just gets crushed once over the mtns with the dry air

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I’m just setting the bar at smoking cirrus so that any flakes will be a welcomed surprise.  Pattern looks to be much more favorable towards late next week.  So 🤞🏻 

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

18z euro about the same, maybe a little drier, generally under .1 qpf from acy to ilg to ptw on north and east. S/w is stronger but the euro is much stronger with the pv streamer compared to the gfs and the timing absolutely sucks on it. Wetter generally in OH valley but just gets crushed once over the mtns with the dry air

Good summary, a little better than 12z except for the tpv streamer which was worse. 

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Good summary, a little better than 12z except for the tpv streamer which was worse. 

The differences between the gfs and euro start at hr 24. The gfs is not nearly as strong with the tpv streamer. The euro is a good bit stronger with the hp in response to the further south push of the tpv streamer. The GFS HP is a little weaker and a bit further north. So that area needs to be settled. Also, gfs is about a good 3/4 hrs faster with getting precip in than the euro. That fact alone helps with the drier outcome too because its more aligned with tpv streamer. What a PITA that damn thing is, jeez yikes. If that was just further north it would be a nice 2-4/3-5 snow event. Be nice if the gfs was right, but every other piece of guidance is aligned with the euro

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What's the worst/best case scenario? Worse being little or no snow, best being a dumping. 

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6 minutes ago, cbelke said:

What's the worst/best case scenario? Worse being little or no snow, best being a dumping. 

worst for your location, cloudy skies, best case 2-4

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3 hours ago, cbelke said:

Could be rain too.  😮

Nope, the fact that it's finally cold enough to snow is why we are not seeing another 1" deluge on a weekend and instead counting hundredths of an inch of QPF.

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44 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The differences between the gfs and euro start at hr 24. The gfs is not nearly as strong with the tpv streamer. The euro is a good bit stronger with the hp in response to the further south push of the tpv streamer. The GFS HP is a little weaker and a bit further north. So that area needs to be settled. Also, gfs is about a good 3/4 hrs faster with getting precip in than the gfs. That fact alone helps with the drier outcome too because its more aligned with tpv streamer. What a PITA that damn thing is, jeez yikes. If that was just further north it would be a nice 2-4/3-5 snow event. Be nice if the gfs was right, but every other piece of guidance is aligned with the euro

Maybe weenie lore, but I always heard that the gfs handles the northern stream better than euro. Bs or semblance of truth to that in your opinion? 

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8 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

Maybe weenie lore, but I always heard that the gfs handles the northern stream better than euro. Bs or semblance of truth to that in your opinion? 

That I have no clue. Honestly, I don't have much faith in the gfs right now with the government shutdown not allowing them to tweak the model. No other model really agrees with it's qpf at 18z right now except it's brother. 

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4 minutes ago, anowal01 said:

0Z NAM through 24 dropping the back side of the streamer even harder than 18Z...

yup, pretty well lined up with the 18z euro

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