Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Dhen398 said:

That southern piece is trending stronger.. hopefully it can help the secondary gain just a bit more latitude... 

Lower DE, yea they have a shot at the coastal, but I think philly area the best bet is the overunning. Just not sure that tpv location is going to allow the proper hgt rises to bring the coastal up north

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Bad call. TPV can change everything.

Wasn't a bad call, it clearly did look better at the frames we were looking at it. Last second the tpv streamer came in and punted. IMO was def a trend to the euro with stronger primary. So hopefully it's qpf will follow soon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lower DE, yea they have a shot at the coastal, but I think philly area the best bet is the overunning. Just not sure that tpv location is going to allow the proper hgt rises to bring the coastal up north

Uncanny how with the December storm and now this one that a fairly small feature around the main vortex in se Canada would screw us. And the Gfs looks to have a similar southern stream system on the 18z (prior runs too) around the 20th. This will be a tough winter on the nerves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So this is the tpv streamer I was talking about. It's not really in a data rich area at all. So I would expect changes. You can follow it from the GOA region. 

gfs_z500_vort_namer_1.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

So this is the tpv streamer I was talking about. It's not really in a data rich area at all. So I would expect changes. You can follow it from the GOA region. 

gfs_z500_vort_namer_1.gif

Once the sampling rationale comes into play, death knell...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Once the sampling rationale comes into play, death knell...

Lol haha, no no, I'm being serious though it's a little streamer that mucks the flow up. If it's off by a bit it plays a big role. I'm personally think 1-3 seems like a good bet right now. I'm looking for ways to get this above 3"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can always hump the WEFS which got wetter, .5 up to philly, snow mean now 4-5"

 

gefs_snow_mean_neng_25.png

gefs_snow_ens_neng_26.png

gefs_qpf_mean_neng_26.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol haha, no no, I'm being serious though it's a little streamer that mucks the flow up. If it's off by a bit it plays a big role. I'm personally think 1-3 seems like a good bet right now. I'm looking for ways to get this above 3"

Ways to get above 3" - best outcome would be solid overrunning plus coastal. While coastal looks the least promising now, it is also further out in time so has more wiggle room. Need a better TPV influence probably.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Can always hump the WEFS which got wetter, .5 up to philly, snow mean now 4-5"

Improvement aloft in trough and shifting the confluence further NE.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh96_trend.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Chubbs said:

Improvement aloft in trough and shifting the confluence further NE.

 

yea they have that weenie pv stream that Shawn made fun of me for :( further north, which helps hgts rise and allows overunning plus some coastal effects

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

eps indiv for phl.. previous runs had 24 members of 2" or more , today its 28 members of 2" or more, 20 members of 3" or more

 

KPHL_2019010912_eps_snow_240.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

eps indiv for phl.. previous runs had 24 members of 2" or more , today its 28 members of 2" or more, 20 members of 3" or more

 

KPHL_2019010912_eps_snow_240.png

8 members six inches or more.

Dont look now, but the WEFS has won the last two (and 3 of last 5) precip events at PHL.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

yea they have that weenie pv stream that Shawn made fun of me for :( further north, which helps hgts rise and allows overunning plus some coastal effects

Yup that's what we need for >3". Be nice if GEFS was on to something.

edit: like the 18z icon

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh108_trend.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

8 members six inches or more.

Dont look now, but the WEFS has won the last two (and 3 of last 5) precip events at PHL.

 

the 8 members is down from 12 at 0z run. Some of those ones had rain too. So the eps moving away from the coastal aspects and focusing on overunning atleast this run

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

Yup that's what we need for >3". Be nice if GEFS was on to something.

 

 

Man how do I pray that is somewhat correct. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z euro rolling now, so we will see what trends it has

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

the 8 members is down from 12 at 0z run. Some of those ones had rain too. So the eps moving away from the coastal aspects and focusing on overunning atleast this run

Yeah it looked like it had less north and west greater hits on this run.  Well for today anyway.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

Sharp cut off line would we think  north I95? 

Not really, you go from 4.5 to 3.5 in a 40 mile n/s zone atleast on the gefs. Thats not really much of a cutoff. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Not really, you go from 4.5 to 3.5 in a 40 mile n/s zone atleast on the gefs. Thats not really much of a cutoff. 

Awesome!That is perfect.  Could maybe squeeze out 4,I'll take 3 if I have to

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, phillysports11 said:

Awesome!

some miller b type storms you can have a 6 inch cutoff in like 20 miles. The storm in late dec 2000 had a crazy one. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

some miller b type storms you can have a 6 inch cutoff in like 20 miles. The storm in late dec 2000 had a crazy one. 

It's nice to see as of now that there is plenty of potential for most of the area to see a few inches. Could maybe turn into 3-6 at best. Either way im happy now haha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Can always hump the WEFS which got wetter, .5 up to philly, snow mean now 4-5"

 

gefs_snow_mean_neng_25.png

gefs_snow_ens_neng_26.png

gefs_qpf_mean_neng_26.png

And didn't Tony just post that the WEFS won three out of the past five events?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

some miller b type storms you can have a 6 inch cutoff in like 20 miles. The storm in late dec 2000 had a crazy one. 

I remember that one - 30 miles west of PHL we are partly sunny in Chester County while on TV I am watching S+ in Philly with I think 9" of snow from that storm??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×