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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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14 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

NAM looks to set up the boundary/waa snows that are light and at 84 hours "appears" to be organizing a "real" slp at 84 hours. 700mb rh maps seem to confirm. Basically, more along the lines of the way the ICON handled it. Could be wrong....could be right

Could be way out of its range...😀

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12Z GFS at 78...little less press from TPV and slightly better height rise on the coast to my eye...hoping this gets the surface a bit north...

ETA...84 seems to get a little more press...and by 96 even more...if you were hoping for a lead off bump north from 12Z GFS, doesn't look like gonna get it here...

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2 minutes ago, anowal01 said:

12Z GFS at 78...little less press from TPV and slightly better height rise on the coast to my eye...hoping this gets the surface a bit north...

ETA...84 seems to get a little more press...

Yea, the backside of the TPV coming in stronger (initial front side was less pressing)

 

 

42835548-FC39-4090-BC8C-BDD56F688617.gif

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Another Blizzard for Richmond. This is just getting painful. 

 

The only thing I can think of for a little hope is that this Is pretty similar to the December 9 storm. If we can get that last 48 hours out push north we should be good this time.

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4 days to go...hang your hat on the GFS and it's not likely to still be there when you come back...still time to back up the bus...was glad to see the Euro consistent overnite, let's see where we are after that run in a couple more hours

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Follow up southern vort grabs the tail of the lead vort, further stretching it out.  A day or two ago there was more separation and consolidation of the lead vort. 

As a result, heights won't get pumped up as much.  Still a bit of an odd look, I wouldn't be shocked (hopeful) if it focuses energy a bit more

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19 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Look familiar?😏

 

26F73892-62E4-4EAA-99B9-1D0C2AD60602.png

I will drive 10 miles south and let you know if I see any snow...

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12z run looks like a two part system, initial overrunning snow if it can arrive before approaching surface high in Canada brings snirga effect and a lull. Call the GFS for what it is, but it is showing orographic effects across PA on Saturday. Then secondary development off Carolinas snows pending on its movement, track, intensification, etc.

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Just based on track, Solomon didnt look that exciting.  Cant see the qpf fields, so maybe it is more than I think. The Euro fooled me yesterday just looking at those 24hr snap shots.

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gfs was actually a nice improvement from 6z. Bit wetter and the coastal qpf was a bit further north. Just gotta deal with that tpv nonsense. Hopefully we can get that to relax a hair over next day or so

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Just based on track, Solomon didnt look that exciting.  Cant see the qpf fields, so maybe it is more than I think. The Euro fooled me yesterday just looking at those 24hr snap shots.

Agree, certainly doesn't look like an improvement. GEM is a little better in our area but weaker further south. So no big changes.

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13 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Agree, certainly doesn't look like an improvement. GEM is a little better in our area but weaker further south. So no big changes.

Just saw qpf, it wasn't.  First surge gets you with about 0.04"; secondary cyclogen a non factor in our area.

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Nice bump north on the wefs, general 2-4, with 4+ from about ptw-dyl-ttn line on south

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indiv members, always the WEFS to lift spirits

gefs_snow_ens_neng_25.png

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Only issue with the WEFS though is those big hits have little support of a coastal running up the i95 corridor right now. Still think our best shot is the overrunning snows. So need the stronger primary and that tpv streak to relax. Hopefully we get the Gigi 60 mile adjustment inside 48hrs. That would make many of us happy

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Only issue with the WEFS though is those big hits have little support of a coastal running up the i95 corridor right now. Still think our best shot is the overrunning snows. So need the stronger primary and that tpv streak to relax. Hopefully we get the Gigi 60 mile adjustment inside 48hrs. That would make many of us happy

Not impossible....as long as folks keep expectation in check - still like our 1st snow cover  (+1") since November to be on the ground by Sunday for many on this forum

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Would think euro slips a bit south here going off what 6z run showed and what every other piece of guidance shows currently. If we can get .1-.2 qpf, that would be nice on it. 

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9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Would think euro slips a bit south here going off what 6z run showed and what every other piece of guidance shows currently. If we can get .1-.2 qpf, that would be nice on it. 

Do we even know, though, if the GFS is using the same data as the Euro based on the post the other day re: the shutdown?

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6 minutes ago, anowal01 said:

Do we even know, though, if the GFS is using the same data as the Euro based on the post the other day re: the shutdown?

No but it’s not like the ukmet or ggem are big hits. Just thinking consensus vs what euro had last night. Who knows though 

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Looks good @48, though that doesn't always work out.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh48_trend.gif

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I’ll insert a comment here just because I haven’t in a long while. I’ll be looking at this event mostly from the bench (except during it, as usual), so I haven’t followed this especially closely. With that in mind, the ops simulations and the run-to-run behavior of the ensembles give me the impression that much of the past two days has been an examination of model noise versus improved physical understanding. I’m not seeing a whole lot to glean in terms of trends yet, and given the deterministic variations member-to-member in the GEFS, e.g., the models have yet to reach a readily observable converged/stable/high-probability solution. I’d be very hesitant latching on to a particular set of runs unless (1) some major shift occurs with most of the models or (2) nothing changes and we’re 24 hours away.

This is probably preaching to the choir, of course, but I thought it was worthy of mentioning anyway. Hope all of you are well.

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