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susqushawn

Weekend (Rules?) Of 1/12-13 First Snow Threat Of 2019

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TPV phases too late to benefit our latitude, it is a hindrance and a curse.  On one hand, it helps keep a cold high in place, on the other hand, it flattens heights ahead of an otherwise vigorous enough southern stream that, by itself, could be a moderate storm, and shears it out.  

gfs_z500a_eus_fh126-168.gif.0a3c61dfdd2afea11df2eb83ad3956cc.gif

Euro is farther east with PV than GFS and keeps surface low farther ots.

547618204_Webp.net-gifmaker(3).gif.e300bc908026a456b02269bc20644de2.gif

Enough moisture streaming up before PV potentially squases initial wave to get some flakes, but unless that PV dives down farther west any big wrapped up solutions are limited to New England

gfs_midRH_us_24.png.19761511d30f54924e7a74e0691e3425.png

Timing and placement of the TPV is a key as the PNA ridge has improved on all guidance, so precip blossoming and transporting our way seems likely, then a question of the PV interaction, does it help or hinder

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PNA ridge continues to improve.  Sharper, more energy sliding down

fv3p_z500_vort_us_fh96_trend.gif

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No matter what gets spit out on snowfall totals, its a good setup.  Moisture streaming above cold dome, reinforcing surface high setting up, other nuances of surface low track, coastal transfer redevelopment, pv influence are all important, but too early to pinpoint.  Ill take overruning snow to start

fv3p_midRH_us_fh108-138.gif

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Less PV interaction 6z para gfs.   Too much we get squashed,  too little could mean wet not white, so yeah, lets ride that line, stay tuned.  Best opportunity in long time for overruning snow to hit our latitude

fv3p_z500a_atl_fh174_trend.gif

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Solomon's qpf field looks similar to the Euro at the end of its run.  Its southern stream low is a bit stronger than the EC, but the northern stream trof is flatter so it almost averages to a zero sum gain.  Neither of them are as aggressive as the GFS.  Whether it is right or wrong something got into the 18z GFS yesterday and since it uses its six hour forecast to help qc its initialization it will take a couple of runs to see if it is onto something, or if it just hit the upright again.

 

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

ukmet, looks a lot flatter than the gfs

But has a stronger southern stream than gem or euro. Hard to tell from these low-def plots how the northern stream will impact

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

Btw, the EPS were kind of unimpressive. Lots of weaker SLP’s at our latitudes, which Indicates it didn’t show any true phasing on a lot of the individuals. A handful of smaller hits, which could of been strictly southern stream precip.

A wide range of outcomes depending on stream timing, which may not be tied down for a couple of days.

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16 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Solomon's qpf field looks similar to the Euro at the end of its run.  Its southern stream low is a bit stronger than the EC, but the northern stream trof is flatter so it almost averages to a zero sum gain.  Neither of them are as aggressive as the GFS.  Whether it is right or wrong something got into the 18z GFS yesterday and since it uses its six hour forecast to help qc its initialization it will take a couple of runs to see if it is onto something, or if it just hit the upright again.

Big differences in Canada between euro/ukie and gfs. GFS has less progressive ridge--->more drop-in energy and little/no 50/50. Progressive ridge in euro+ukie tends to lower heights in SE Canada increasing confluence. Would side with euro/ukie at this point.

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1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

Big differences in Canada between euro/ukie and gfs. GFS has less progressive ridge--->more drop-in energy and little/no 50/50. Progressive ridge in euro+ukie tends to lower heights in SE Canada increasing confluence. Would side with euro/ukie at this point.

Although the GFS is "suppose to be" better with northern stream systems.  The UKMET has really not been wrong (or has been wrong for maybe a run in the sequence) with much this winter.  Is it due for a miss just by the law of averages?   That other site that shows UK day 7 is not going to be available until the government shut down ends.

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

6z GEFS.  Take your pick

06Z-20190107_GEFSNE_prec_ptypens-120-210-50-100.gif

Wow I counted a handful of beautiful hits. Let’s get these positive trends continuing at 12z

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Gfs starting to roll, lets see what it wants to throw at us this run. 6z was later on the northern stream interaction and was mainly southern stream miller A driven IMO

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Big differences in Canada between euro/ukie and gfs. GFS has less progressive ridge--->more drop-in energy and little/no 50/50. Progressive ridge in euro+ukie tends to lower heights in SE Canada increasing confluence. Would side with euro/ukie at this point.

Agreed, but hopefully that doesn't mean a shut out and we can find a halfway point between the two which would be good. I never trust the gfs personally. Just has to many flukey runs. So until the euro and ukmet go to it I don't take it seriously. 

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22 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Gfs starting to roll, lets see what it wants to throw at us this run. 6z was later on the northern stream interaction and was mainly southern stream miller A driven IMO

This might be my last golfing round for a while pending how the weekend goes. Just got above freezing, so on my way, give me the cliff notes later.  The ICON, looks like the Euro. 

Congrats on yesterday's game.  Not sure when you were going to get peeled off the ceiling.

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through hr 84, not a ton difference so far via 6z. Pna spike a bit stronger. Maybe a bit more cold push in the east. S/w's in the rockies look about the same maybe a hair stronger. 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

This might be my last golfing round for a while pending how the weekend goes. Just got above freezing, so on my way, give me the cliff notes later.  The ICON, looks like the Euro. 

Congrats on yesterday's game.  Not sure when you were going to get peeled off the ceiling.

aye aye captain. Make sure you leave your phone on so I don't get a response 4 days later lol

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through hr 96 at h5, better pna spike, s/w stronger interaction between northern and southern streams so far. hgts in the east are a wash so far. 

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This might be my last golfing round for a while pending how the weekend goes. Just got above freezing, so on my way, give me the cliff notes later.  The ICON, looks like the Euro. 

Congrats on yesterday's game.  Not sure when you were going to get peeled off the ceiling.

The ICON is my nightmare scenario. Already had one this year, a repeat would be more than disappointing to say the least.

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continued same theme so far, much better interaction between northern/southern stream. Gfs does have a stronger 50/50 low this run thus a bit lower hgts in the east. 

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Amazing since 12z run yesterday how the ridge out west has amplified and moved west allowing room for something to turn the corner. 

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3 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

The ICON is my nightmare scenario. Already had one this year, a repeat would be more than disappointing to say the least.

from looking at the gfs, you aren't going to get an ICON solution here. 

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if I had to take a guess right now this run probably will be between 0z and 6z. Much stronger southern stream vort. But I don't think we are going to get the northern stream phase in this run till late. Hgts a hair lower along east coast due to stronger 50/50 low

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northenr stream starting to dive in on this run now, faster than 0z, confluence remaining strong so this should limit a true cut. Gong to be a nice solution here 

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