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Mitchg

Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

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eeee that looks like a bogus 18z gfs run. Look at the handling of the tpv up north it is virtually a 180 from 12z. I'm highly skeptical of that run. The piece of the tpv goes from southern hudson bay at 12z to over maine as it blows a storm up there at 18z. With that there it then forces that 2nd system way south. You remove that tpv energy from maine and it's back to cutting to the west. 

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

eeee that looks like a bogus 18z gfs run. Look at the handling of the tpv up north it is virtually a 180 from 12z. I'm highly skeptical of that run. The piece of the tpv goes from southern hudson bay at 12z to over maine as it blows a storm up there at 18z. With that there it then forces that 2nd system way south. You remove that tpv energy from maine and it's back to cutting to the west. 

This is what I mean, look at how much different the 18z gfs is compared to 12z. 12z gfs matches the other models with not digging that tpv energy into Maine, it's around southern hudson bay, then moves northeast. With it moving northeast it allows a e ridge to build in response of the digging s/w in the plains. That causes the northern stream energy to cut west of us. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png.039ec6d7318f84e415bd15e7b0f06aae.png

Now if you look at 18z gfs it drives that tpv feature way south into new england and then moves it east northeast. This then limits the se ridge building and prevents that follow up wave from cutting. Thats why I'm saying I would toss that run of the gfs until something else shows the tpv diving that far south into new england

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png.f09c80dfd0c38b06ad533dd35fd99e5f.png

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2 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

It seems like there's so many pieces but to this point they're not fitting in the big puzzle. That said, do you think the pattern is such that a discrete threat shows up on guidance with a shorter lead time (<5 days) then what we might normally expect? I'm just wondering that at some point if we keep looking out >7 days something might pop when we're not expecting it. 

No, usually threats outside day 7 don't materialize. It's usually the stuff around day 5 or inside that just pop up that verify.  I was just merely stating above that jan 29 has a miller b look but it's warm because of the lakes low. 

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