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Mitchg

Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

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My goodness this is going to be a virgina winter. A lot can change but the pattern is favoring the south completely.  This is getting old fast. Once I think were due we end of getting screwed!

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1 minute ago, phillysports11 said:

My goodness this is going to be a virgina winter. A lot can change but the pattern is favoring the south completely.  This is getting old fast. Once I think were due we end of getting screwed!

it's 8 days away!!! Relax!!!! Just be happy you have something to track instead of a blow torch like we had last year. 

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

If we miss another big one to the south this season I might lose it lol....I dont have SV anymore so cant see the vorticity only the 500mb heights and I thought it’d have enough to come N to us at least...

Glad I'm not the only one freaking out, haha

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it's 8 days away!!! Relax!!!! Just be happy you have something to track instead of a blow torch like we had last year. 

I am very happy we have something to track, its a gut punch when I see a good run for a bit then boom hits the south .Idk how I make it through Eagles games,ha

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it's 8 days away!!! Relax!!!! Just be happy you have something to track instead of a blow torch like we had last year. 

Very true. Looks like tracking season is finally here. Let's enjoy it while we can. That and may everyone get 3 feet of snow in the next month. 

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6 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

I am very happy we have something to track, its a gut punch when I see a good run for a bit then boom hits the south .Idk how I make it through Eagles games,ha

Its 8 days away, they never stay the same that far out, never. Thats why I said yesterday that 12z run was the worst thing that could happen because of what you described above. People see that 12z run and then marry it and expect it never to go away. Look at how much the current storm changed 5 days away

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35 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

If we miss another big one to the south this season I might lose it lol....I dont have SV anymore so cant see the vorticity only the 500mb heights and I thought it’d have enough to come N to us at least...

Glad I'm

 

20 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Its 8 days away, they never stay the same that far out, never. Thats why I said yesterday that 12z run was the worst thing that could happen because of what you described above. People see that 12z run and then marry it and expect it never to go away. Look at how much the current storm changed 5 days away

I learned from day 1 never bite the bait on the runs. Hell a day before or the day of a lot can change.  I like to get pumped up 3 days before. 8 days is a little much, ha

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41 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

My goodness this is going to be a virgina winter. A lot can change but the pattern is favoring the south completely.  This is getting old fast. Once I think were due we end of getting screwed!

Give it until the end of February, and then we can start thinking about canceling winter...

8 days until we really get into the pattern change, and ~5-6 days until the models even really get a clue with our next storm chance.

We've all been dealing with the boring weather lately, but we can all wait a few more days too :) 

We can enjoy our appetizer tonight/tomorrow as well, even if we're only getting a little bit of snow! Suppression flakes > cold rain 

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46 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Yeah Ill take this look at this range for sure....better than to have it be a Rainer trend since those seem to never trend better 

Kind of close to CMC/GFS look, just a bit farther S

Hopefully EPS loses a lot of the rainers. 

 

colder look today than 0z run, still showing some lean to the west but colder look than 0z. 

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4 minutes ago, Treckasec said:

Give it until the end of February, and then we can start thinking about canceling winter...

8 days until we really get into the pattern change, and ~5-6 days until the models even really get a clue with our next storm chance.

We've all been dealing with the boring weather lately, but we can all wait a few more days too :) 

We can enjoy our appetizer tonight/tomorrow as well, even if we're only getting a little bit of snow! Suppression flakes > cold rain 

100% agree! I'll take this appetizer  anytime.  I am glad were all in this together, lol. Starving for snow!  8 days out I never jump on board as easy at it is. When we discuss it could hit the south it just sets me off, haha.

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Euro as of now shows a miss for next weekend.. is that the PV keeping that south? Im not going to hug every model run ,curious with all the L's and yet stays south.  Euro is king,hopefully over next few days it shifts. Have  a good night!

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5 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

Euro as of now shows a miss for next weekend.. is that the PV keeping that south? Im not going to hug every model run ,curious with all the L's and yet stays south.  Euro is king,hopefully over next few days it shifts. Have  a good night!

Just lack of phase between two jets. Northern stream moves out ahead and flattens out hgts till to late

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You can see it in the gif Irish posted, but there could potentially be a scenario where an Anafront ends up forming and we get a new low at the base of the trough. Or it could be a situation like the 18z FV3 where it just ends up being snow from the lead wave and the base of the energy ends up too far out to sea....Or it could be a EURO situation, or of course ANY possibility lol....A lot can go wrong though right now....

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Big shifts inside 8 dAys on the euro. Better ridging into Greenland, pv responds favorably, send a lobe out to the 50/50. Pac looks better, better looking shortwave. 

 

Solid run, disregard the specifics!

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Does 00z EURO show snow for us? fwiw

I95: snow---->mix---> lt snow  about 6"

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21 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Ty...I’m assuming more to the N & W?

Yes a gradual increase over a foot in LV/Harrisburg and N+W. Heavy icing between I95 and LV.

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6z GFS with a nice trend so far....better positioning of the TPV out ahead of the low at 126 hrs. Might not be enough yet, but it is a nice trend at least. Woke up by accident with my alarm so figured I’d stay up. Too excited with the Birds playing today, it is snowing outside, and a potential storm 7 days out 

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