Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


Mitchg

Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

Recommended Posts

The UKIE is different than all other models. At 144 it is actually putting its focus on that first shortwave. This wouldn’t work out because the PV isn’t in position yet. The models that show a hit have the wave that the Ukie is showing as just a weak shortwave that helps bring the cold Eastward....Long way out and there is a lot of energy coming in from the Pacific so it will be tumultuous for the models to figure it out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, november2003 said:

Well the ducks are on the pond at least

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

two-ducks-on-the-pond-carol-groenen.jpg

Hey.....what are you waiting for?  Somebody shoot them bastids!  

j/k

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea the FV3 does the Anafront similar to the OP GFS....shoots a low out on the frontside of the trough, then a major low reforms at the base....and crushes most of us... lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like good week for  the snow map collection

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Looks like good week for  the snow map collection

yea I would hold onto the para snow map just for entertainment purposes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EURO looks good to me at 144....the shortwave in the Southwest isn’t as robust, and the cold push looks to beat it out...well see if it ends up developing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

euro has the system like the ukmet that brings some snow to rain. That drags the cold air with it. Euro seems to have a bit more cold air press this run. So I don't we see amped and west here. Has a nice s/w at the base with a solid cold press

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

EURO looks good to me at 144....the shortwave in the Southwest isn’t as robust, and the cold push looks to beat it out...well see if it ends up developing

Yup, looks colder, flatter

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_fh144_trend.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro has the system like the ukmet that brings some snow to rain. That drags the cold air with it. Euro seems to have a bit more cold air press this run. So I don't we see amped and west here. Has a nice s/w at the base with a solid cold press

Yea that first wave was the one the Ukie put all its focus into....That first wave isn’t the wave we want the models to focus on, but it does help usher in the cold a bit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Heisenberg said:

Yea that first wave was the one the Ukie put all its focus into....That first wave isn’t the wave we want the models to focus on, but it does help usher in the cold a bit

The models have had that wave for a while now, just stronger this run. Think this run will be further south than 0z. pv press compresses flow pretty good. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Heisenberg said:

Holy crap is all I can say with this image lol...

 

7DE182A6-2BB0-4C1F-A114-AA1959722B9C.png

that looks like a southern slide to me unless northern stream phases in. Can see northern trough swinging by to north flattens flow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

50/50 low, 1040 HP coming into play with a slight PV push to hopefully keep it south....Neutral tilt of the wave, maybe slightly positive....this is going to crush someone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, tombo82685 said:

that looks like a southern slide to me unless northern stream phases in. Can see northern trough swinging by to north flattens flow. 

Maybe, wave looks too strong to me for it to so be a southern slider 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My fear of amped and west have greatly reduced in last day. Progressive nature of pacific and better pv position much more favorable

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

Maybe, wave looks too strong to me for it to so be a southern slider 

it's south, pretty close to dec storm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really? Shocked it went south based on the isobar look at 168, regardless Ill take it at this stage....does it crush someone? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Heisenberg said:

Really? Shocked it went south based on the isobar look at 168, regardless Ill take it at this stage....does it crush someone? 

yea VA/NC... You could see it a mile away, the streams weren't aligned properly. The northern stream trough was out ahead of southern stream crushing the hgts

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know everyone is tired of south this winter but I’ll take that over a cutter.. especially in this time frame 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

2 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Really? Shocked it went south based on the isobar look at 168, regardless Ill take it at this stage....does it crush someone? 

Richmond, Salisbury - not a complete miss here

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we miss another big one to the south this season I might lose it lol....I dont have SV anymore so cant see the vorticity only the 500mb heights and I thought it’d have enough to come N to us at least...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah Ill take this look at this range for sure....better than to have it be a Rainer trend since those seem to never trend better 

Kind of close to CMC/GFS look, just a bit farther S

Hopefully EPS loses a lot of the rainers. 

CD09D1C2-62EB-40DB-8900-D4D9ADFE353A.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×