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Mitchg

Winter Storm Threats (Beyond Day 5).

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On 10/21/2018 at 9:11 AM, Qtown Snow said:

5bcc78c78ecc3.png

A few members do support this but take the accumulating snow through the Apps. Half of the EPS look OTS. 06Z GFS had the same idea as the op EC but was higher with dewpoints and thus rain. Dewpoints are around 20 to start on the OP EC so snow through Tony's favorite dynamical cooling is possible. Dewpoints of 30 in advance won't cut it. That was a big key in Oct 2011. Though almost better if this one went inland given October snowstorms generally yield poor winters along the east coast. 

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2 hours ago, Mitchg said:

NAO looks more supportive today. Archambault.

First NAO- in quite a while hopefully a sign of things to come.

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Consensus growing on a storm. CMC :wacko: with a 968 low.  I don't see how it is snow along 95 and coastal plain. More interesting for higher elevations/ inland areas. 

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22 minutes ago, Chubbs said:
2 hours ago, Mitchg said:

NAO looks more supportive today. Archambault. Ensemble Mean NAO Outlooks

 

Those are terrible NAO skill scores.  Pretty much means anything can happen next weekend in terms of track.

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Those are terrible NAO skill scores.  Pretty much means anything can happen next weekend in terms of track.

If I had to WAG this one is going to trend west.

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5 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Consensus growing on a storm. CMC :wacko: with a 968 low.  I don't see how it is snow along 95 and coastal plain. More interesting for higher elevations/ inland areas. 

 

24 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

If I had to WAG this one is going to trend west.

Too bad this isn't coming in winter 😭. Pretty good consensus today on a low near Cape Hatteras. Beaches could take a pounding.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

 

Too bad this isn't coming in winter 😭. Pretty good consensus today on a low near Cape Hatteras. Beaches could take a pounding.

Interestingly,  it's the remnants, in one form or another,  of Hurricane Willa that's nearing the western shores of Mexico right now. 

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Once we get inside a few days, we can create a short range thread. 

 

Anyhow, 

 

next storm looks legit. Too bad this isn’t December! Good storm to shake off the rust for analysis models, other guidance and trends. I guess we can’t rule out some elevation snows for interior sections. Big time trough in play, remnant hurricane energy. Could see this being some type of hybrid system. 

3FB85050-65DC-493D-9B8E-1E417DAD8D37.png

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Have a somewhat classic block on the Atlantic side of things. The 50/50 low is what really buckles the flow. Brief PNA spike. Man, if this was December , watch out coastal sections. 

2 shortwaves, 1 being the remnants of the east pac hurricane , and the other being a northern stream disturbance diving in associated with the full latitude trough. 

 

Pattern screams big storm, with some amp’d up phases solutions being thrown in. Some spread in guidance, TBE, with some swings and misses to app runners in the mix. 

F25CCEE3-7F31-49A6-A3FE-02DCEEE70729.png

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7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Have a somewhat classic block on the Atlantic side of things. The 50/50 pow is what really buckles the flow. Brief PNA spike. Man, of this was December , watch out coastal sections. 

2 shortwaves, 1 being the remnants of the east pac hurricane , and the other being a northern stream disturbance diving in associated with the full latitude trough. 

 

Pattern screams big storm, with some amp’d up phases solutions being thrown in. Some spread in guidance, TBE, with some swings and misses to app runners in the mix. 

F25CCEE3-7F31-49A6-A3FE-02DCEEE70729.png

We will see more of these kinds of maps this winter methinks. 

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For instance, If this was winter, this GFS Run would have the weenies heading for the bridges. (Myself included 😂)/

 

Misses the phase, and we get some strung out, wide right solution. 

8F37D49D-3E7A-4917-898C-7F6667C9B7C7.gif

C95F56B0-F276-4FB7-8ACC-5362B0E5BD59.gif

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6 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

For instance, If this was winter, this GFS Run would have the weenies heading for the bridges. (Myself included 😂)/

 

Misses the phase, and we get some strung out, wide right solution.

Yeah if this was winter the board would be hoppin. Euro, GEM+ probably ukie with heavy interior snowstorms overnight. Wonder if Mitch has a spare bedroom.

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6 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

For instance, If this was winter, this GFS Run would have the weenies heading for the bridges. (Myself included 😂)/

 

Misses the phase, and we get some strung out, wide right solution. 

8F37D49D-3E7A-4917-898C-7F6667C9B7C7.gif

C95F56B0-F276-4FB7-8ACC-5362B0E5BD59.gif

Come January  you won't have to worry about the bridge:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png.8bd2a247d033e5848f5b998c13ebeb2b.png

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

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12 hours ago, Chubbs said:

 

Too bad this isn't coming in winter 😭. Pretty good consensus today on a low near Cape Hatteras. Beaches could take a pounding.

When we went to Cape May earlier this month we could still see some of the beach damage just from the onshore flow event in September.

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51 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Come January  you won't have to worry about the bridge:

Hope you are working on your putting.

fv3p_mslp_wind_us_fh36-132.gif

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22 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Hope you are working on your putting.

fv3p_mslp_wind_us_fh36-132.gif

I have to convert back from Bermuda to bent grass this week, so I will let you know.

Meanwhile the GEFS is just playing follow the leader:

index.gif.2b6205fc7d9eed8de064ce0cd42718f1.gif

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Aside from the GFS being farther offshore, this is not looking too good for the shore this weekend. Alot of coast hugging solutions. Speedwise it is faster than yesterday would make Sunday salvageable at this point.

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Aside from the GFS being farther offshore, this is not looking too good for the shore this weekend. Alot of coast hugging solutions. Speedwise it is faster than yesterday would make Sunday salvageable at this point.

Faster meaning less rain and flooding?

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18 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Faster meaning less rain and flooding?

faster as in comes in earlier Saturday

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

faster as in comes in earlier Saturday

Got it. 

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There is a signal on the eps around nov 13-15th for possibly first flakes of the season, at least on this run. 

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