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tombo82685

CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

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Canadian Weeklies starting 7/15

Temperature:   Above normal weeks 1 thru 3.   Near normal PA week 4, above normal NJ.

Precipitation:  Near normal weeks 1 & 3.  Dry weeks 2 & 4.

Tropics (above normal pcpn) : Gulf week 2.  Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz other weeks.

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Can't go onto details for now, but weeks 2 thru 4 on the CFS2 look not way above normal with a Rockies ridge positioning.  The ridge cough is outlooked to be farther east weeks 5 and 6.  Residual heat week 2, so it may average warmer than what it has if all things considered the 500mb is not that far off.  

 

CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 7/15

Week 1 hot zonal

Weeks 2 thru 4 Rockies Ridge, Eastern NOAM trof

Weeks 5 & 6, more zonal look, greater positive anomalies

 

Week 1 verification.....+1F (+1F).......over  (I guess it is +2F)

                                         Actual +1.3F.   

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....+3F (+5F).....over  (I wish +3F).  I am editing this late, so am sticking with the +7F, +8F from last week

Week 2......-1F (+3F)..... over, so has to be 0 to +2F.

Week 3.......0F (-1F)......over

Week 4.......+1F (+2F)......over

Week 5......+1F (+1F)  (TTidbits).....over

Week 6.......+2F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parenthesis) 

Week 1........dry (dry)

Week 2........dry (normal) 

Week 3........normal (normal)

Week 4........dry (dry)

Week 5........normal (dry) (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

 

Tropics

Week 1 Caribbean & Way South ITCZ

Week 2  ITCZ into Lesser Antilles

Week 3 ITCZ into Lesser Antilles and SW Atlantic

Week 4 ITCZ big into Lesser Antilles and Caribbean

Week 5 not much

Week 6 ITCZ; 2ndry NE Gulf NEWD.

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Canadian Weeklies starting 7/22

Temperature:   Near normal weeks 1, 3 & 4.    Below Normal 😮 Week 2.

Precipitation:  Wettish weeks 1 thru 3.  Near normal week 4. 

Tropics (above normal pcpn) : Gulf & SW Atlantic week 1.  Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz other weeks.

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On 7/15/2019 at 9:06 AM, Rainshadow said:

Can't go onto details for now, but weeks 2 thru 4 on the CFS2 look not way above normal with a Rockies ridge positioning.  The ridge cough is outlooked to be farther east weeks 5 and 6.  Residual heat week 2, so it may average warmer than what it has if all things considered the 500mb is not that far off.  

 

CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 7/15

Week 1 hot zonal

Weeks 2 thru 4 Rockies Ridge, Eastern NOAM trof

Weeks 5 & 6, more zonal look, greater positive anomalies

 

Week 1 verification.....+1F (+1F).......over  (I guess it is +2F)

                                         Actual +1.3F.   

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....+3F (+5F).....over  (I wish +3F).  I am editing this late, so am sticking with the +7F, +8F from last week

Week 2......-1F (+3F)..... over, so has to be 0 to +2F.

Week 3.......0F (-1F)......over

Week 4.......+1F (+2F)......over

Week 5......+1F (+1F)  (TTidbits).....over

Week 6.......+2F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parenthesis) 

Week 1........dry (dry)

Week 2........dry (normal) 

Week 3........normal (normal)

Week 4........dry (dry)

Week 5........normal (dry) (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

 

Tropics

Week 1 Caribbean & Way South ITCZ

Week 2  ITCZ into Lesser Antilles

Week 3 ITCZ into Lesser Antilles and SW Atlantic

Week 4 ITCZ big into Lesser Antilles and Caribbean

Week 5 not much

Week 6 ITCZ; 2ndry NE Gulf NEWD.

More later, last week verified with a +6F at PHL.

CFS2 still -1F for this week.  Think today and the weekend will average the week warmer. 

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 7/22

Week 1 +PNA / -NAO Greenland Block

Week 2  +PNA / Anomalous Ridging Newfoundland centered

Weeks 3 & 4 Rockies Ridge, Eastern NOAM trof

Weeks 5 & 6, more zonal look, greater positive anomalies. probably washed out patterns

 

Week 1 verification.....+3F (+5F).......over. I am editing this late, so am sticking with the +7F, +8F from last week

                                         Actual +6F.   

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1......-1F (-1F).....over,  so has to be 0 to +2F. 

Week 2......+2F (0F).....over, but not by much

Week 3.......0F (+1F)......over, eh +1F

Week 4.......+1F (+1F)......push

Week 5......+2F (+2F)  (TTidbits).....over

Week 6.......+2F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parenthesis) 

Week 1........wet (dry)

Week 2........normal (normal) 

Week 3........wet (dry)

Week 4........normal (dry)

Week 5........dry (dry) (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

 

Tropics

Week 1 ITCZ way south

Week 2  ITCZ and SW Atlantic

Week 3 ITCZ into Lesser Antilles 

Week 4 SW Atlantic recurve

Week 5 ITCZ

Week 6 ITCZ & Lesser Antilles; 2ndry SW Atlantic

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Canadian Weeklies starting 7/29

Temperature:   Above normal weeks 1 & 2.   Near normal weeks 3 & 4.

Precipitation:  Near normal all four weeks. 

Tropics (above normal pcpn) : SW Atlantic weeks 1 & 2.  SW Atlantic & Gulf weeks 3 & 4.

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 7/29

Week 1 +PNA / -NAO Greenland Block still there

Week 2  ++++PNA / -NAO West    Below normal heights here.

Week 3 Rockies Ridge, Eastern NOAM trof

Week 4 Plains Ridge, Trofs off both coasts

Weeks 5 & 6, Zonal look, greater positive anomalies. washed out patterns

 

Week 1 verification.....-1F (-1F).....over,  so has to be 0 to +2F.

                                         Actual 0F.   

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1......0F (+2F).....over,  +3F(ish)

Week 2......-1F (0F).....over, but not by much

Week 3.......-1F (+1F)......over, eh +1F

Week 4.......+1F (+2F)......over

Week 5......+3F (+2F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6.......+3F (TTidbits).....under

 

Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parenthesis) 

Week 1........dry (normal)

Week 2........normal (wet) 

Week 3........dry (normal)

Week 4........normal (dry)

Week 5........wet (dry) (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

 

Tropics

Week 1 ITCZ with recurve

Week 2  way south ITCZ and recurve in Atlantic

Week 3 way south ITCZ into Caribbean 

Week 4 ITCZ, lesser Antilles

Weeks 5 & 6 Really dull for September, not much above normal pcpn 

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 8/5

Week 1 +PNA / -NAO West    Below normal heights here.

Week 2  SE Ridge; Unwinding of -NAO Rex Block

Week 3 Southern Plains Ridge, Trofs off both coasts

Week 4 +AO/+NAO Trof along west coast

Weeks 5 & 6, Super duper zonal look; +AO/+NAO; any semblance of troffing west coast states or just offshore of them.

 

Week 1 verification.....0F (+2F).....over,  +3F(ish)

                                         Actual +4F.   

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1......0F (-1F).....over,  +1F

Week 2......-2F (-1F).....over, but not by much, think +1F from last week near top he says

Week 3.......0F (+1F)......over

Week 4.......0F (+3F)......over

Week 5......+3F (+3F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6.......+2F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parenthesis) 

Week 1........dry (normal),  This week has gone from wet to normal to dry

Week 2........dry (dry) 

Week 3........normal (normal)

Week 4........wet (wet)

Week 5........normal (dry) (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

 

Tropics

Week 1 ITCZ; 2ndry recurve offshore

Weeks 2 & 3 ITCZ and Lesser Antilles

Week 4 ITCZ East

Weeks 5 & 6 Really dull for peak of hurricane season, central Atlantic

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Canadian Weeklies starting 8/5

Temperature:   Above normal week 1.   Near normal weeks 2 thru 4.  Hints of warmth in CWA weeks 3 & 4.  Great outlook for South Dakota.

Precipitation:  Dry week 1.  Wettish weeks 2 & 3.  Near normal week 4. 

Tropics (above normal pcpn) : Central Atlantic week 1.  Caribbean and SW Gulf weeks 2 & 3.   ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Week 4.

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Canadian Weeklies starting 8/12

Temperature:   Near normal week 1.  Below normal just west of us.   Above normal weeks 2 thru 4.   

Precipitation:   Near normal all weeks. 

Tropics (above normal pcpn) : Waaaayyyyy south week 1.  W Gulf week 2.    :wub: 28N/60W weeks 3 & 4.

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 8/12

500mb pattern nothing new with dollar cost averaged above normal heights.  Start of September, maybe we can Maritime highs out of this (if it is close, ha):

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_4.png.de47e991627e71280534002dddcd5a0e.png

 

Gotta go, but before I can go into further details, will take over for this week, banking on mins to do the dirty work after this morning.

 Previous Week 1 verification....0F (-1F).....over,  +1F

                                         Actual +1F.   

 

 

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 8/12

Week 1  So much for -NAO ridge;  Flat Southern Plains ridge / -PNA

Week 2  Rockies Ridge; Offshore Bermuda High Ridge; Troffing Over Eastern CONUS

Weeks 3 & 4 Super zonal; south of Aleutians Trof; Highest Positive anomalies west of British Columbia & NRN New England/Maritimes

Weeks 5 & 6 Still zonal;  SW Trof -EPO / +++++NAO

 

Week 1 verification....0F (-1F).....over,  +1F

                                         Actual +1F.    (I quit....)

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1......-3F (-2F).....so over,  +1F

Week 2......0F (0F)........over; this could be ugly, +4F, +5F

Week 3.......+2F (0F)......under

Week 4.......0F (+3F)......over  (Canadian Maritimes implied high, make me wrong)

Week 5......+1F (+2F)  (TTidbits).....over

Week 6.......+1F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parenthesis) 

Week 1........normal (dry)

Week 2........normal (normal) 

Week 3........dry (wet)

Week 4........wet (normal)

Week 5........dry (dry) (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

 

Tropics

Weeks 1 & 2 Way south on the ITCZ into Caribbean

Week   3 ITCZ East

Week 4 Central Atlantic

Weeks 5 & 6 Central Atlantic; 2ndry max in Gulf

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