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tombo82685

CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

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6 hours ago, JamieO said:

Appears to be a typical transition into spring forecasted, correct? 

Yes, a bit more normal than last smarch & smapril.

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12 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Yes, a bit more normal than last smarch & smapril.

Also doesn't appear like we'll have the June-in-February like 2017 and July-in-March like 2016, which is good news for PA fruit growers. I used to do freelancing as editor of a local food blog and I know our orchard owners around here have had a marked increase in blossom loss since the mid-90s due to extended very early warm spells followed by cold outbreaks. So the weeklies are encouraging in that way as well. 

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1 minute ago, JamieO said:

Also doesn't appear like we'll have the June-in-February like 2017 and July-in-March like 2016, which is good news for PA fruit growers. I used to do freelancing as editor of a local food blog and I know our orchard owners around here have had a marked increase in blossom loss since the mid-90s due to extended very early warm spells followed by cold outbreaks. So the weeklies are encouraging in that way as well. 

Yes that is true, a cold start to March does not hurt.

Off topic.  I don't remember if I commented on FB to you or not, but thanks for posting about The Haunting Of Hill House on FB. :)  Might have never tripped over it. What a great series that is.  My wife went to the library & got the book.  Even given it was written in 1959, they really really really improved upon the original story.

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week 1 -11

week 2 +2

week 3 0

week 4 0

week 5 +1

week 6 +1

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On 3/4/2019 at 10:30 AM, Rainshadow said:

Canadian Weeklies starting 3/4. 

Temperatures below normal weeks 1 and 2.  Near normal weeks 3 & 4.

Precipitation near normal weeks 1,  3 (above east) & 4 (above west).  Above normal week 2.

 
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Canadian Weeklies starting 3/11. 

Temperature near normal week 1, below normal week 2; near normal weeks 3 & 4.

Precipitation near normal week 1dry week 2,   wet week 3,   near normal week 4.

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 3/11
 

Week 1..........Prevailing SE Ridge

Week 2..........+PNA / +NAO

Week 3..........El Nino Height Look  +PNA / +EPO  / +NAO

Week 4...........+EPO / +NAO

Week 5..........Aleutian Low / Western Canadian Ridge / Zonalish look (washed out?)

Week 6......... -EPO / -PNA / +NAO 

 

Week 1 verification: ....-9F (-3F)....under.   

                                         Actual -8F.    Euro had -11F.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....0F (+3F)....way over

Week 2.....-2F (+1F).....under

Week 3.....+4F (-1F).....under

Week 4....+3F  (+1F).....over

Week 5....+3F (+2F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....+2F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn

Week 1........dry

Week 2........dry

Week 3........dry

Week 4........normal

Week 5........dry (TTidbits)

Week 6........normal (TTidbits)

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week 1 +2

week 2 -2

week 3 +1

week 4 +2

week 5 +3

week 6 +2

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Monday

week 1 +2

week 2 -2

week 3 +2

week 4 +2

week 5 +2

week 6 +2

 

thursday

week 1 -2

week 2 +1

week 3 +1

week 4 +1

week 5 0

week 6 -1

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Canadian Weeklies starting 3/18. 

Temperature:  below normal week 1; near normal weeks 2 thru 4.

Precipitation: dry weeks 1 & 2;  near normal weeks 3 & 4.

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 3/18
 

Week 1..........+PNA / +NAO Big Ridge Over Canadian Rockies

Week 2..........Pattern Switch -PNA / +NAO / -EPO

Week 3......... -PNA / +NAO / -EPO   Ridging in Alaska

Week 4..........-PNA / +NAO /  Neutral EPO   Ridging NW Canada

Week 5..........-PNA / +NAO /  Neutral EPO   Ridging NW Canada

Week 6......... Above normal heights Canada, Below normal heights southern CONUS

Not much week to week continuity

 

Week 1 verification: ....0F (+3F)....way over  

                                         Actual +5F.    Euro had +2F.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....-2F (-2F)......under

Week 2.....+4F (+4F).....under (but above normal)

Week 3.....+1F (+3F).....over

Week 4....+4F  (+3F).....under

Week 5....+4F (+2F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....+1F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn

Week 1........dry

Week 2........normal

Week 3........wet

Week 4........normal

Week 5........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

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monday

week 1 -1

week 2 +3

week 3 +2

week 4 +2

week 5 +2

week 6 0

thursday

week 1 -1

week 2 -1

week 3 +1

week 4 +2

week 5 +2

week 6 +1

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Canadian Weeklies starting 3/25

Temperature:  near normal weeks 1, 3 & 4. below normal week 2.

Precipitation:  near normal weeks 1, 3 & 4.  wet week 2.

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Gotta get going, but after this week (and I think this week is too cold), the CFS2 is very torchy.

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 3/25
 

Week 1..........Rex Block -EPO / Stout +NAO Big Ridge Now over Alaska Vs Canadian Rockies Last Week

Week 2..........Neutral EPO / +PNA low heights srn conus / Stout +NAO

Week 3......... -PNA / -NAO E / +EPO   Highest Pos anomalies Great Lakes to New England

Week 4..........-EPO / -PNA / -NAO  E/  Highest Pos anomalies southern Quebec

Week 5..........-EPO / -PNA (Sw trof) / -NAO  E/  Highest Pos anomalies southern Ontario

Week 6..........Neutral EPO / Stout -PNA (Sw trof) / -NAO E Highest Pos anomalies over us

 

 

Week 1 verification: ....-2F (-2F)....under 

                                         Actual -1F.    Euro had -1F.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....-3F (+4F)......over

Week 2.....+2F (+1F).....way over

Week 3.....+5F (+4F).....over

Week 4....+4F  (+4F).....under

Week 5....+5F (+1F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....+4F (TTidbits).....under

 

Pcpn

Week 1........dry

Week 2........wet

Week 3........dry

Week 4........normal

Week 5........dry (TTidbits)

Week 6........normal (TTidbits)

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monday

week 1 +3

week 2 +1

week 3 +3

week 4  +2

week 5 +2

week 6 +2

thursday

week 1 -2

week 2 -1

week 3 0

week 4 -1

week 5 0

week 6 0

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Canadian Weeklies starting 4/1

Temperature:  below normal week 1.  near normal week 2.  above normal week 3.   near normal week 4. 

Precipitation:  dry week 1.  near normal week 2.   wet week 3.   near normal week 4.

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 4/1
 

Week 1..........Fairly Zonal.  Highest Pos Anomalies CA & Delmarva.

Week 2..........-NAO E / ++ EPO / PNA Neutral. Highest Stout POS Anomalies NY State. 

Week 3......... -NAO E / -EPO / -PNA  Highest Pos anomalies Great Lakes to Western New England

Week 4..........-EPO / +PNA / -NAO  E/  Highest Pos anomalies southern Ontario

Week 5..........-EPO / -PNA (Sw trof) / NAO  Neutral/  Highest Pos anomalies Northwest Territories

Week 6..........Neutral EPO / -PNA (Sw trof) / +NAO E Highest Pos Southwest Ontario & ADj CONUS (including us)

 

 

Week 1 verification: ....-3F (+4F)....over

                                         Actual +2F (pretty bad 5F error).    Euro had +3F.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....-3F (+2F)......over

Week 2.....+5F (+5F).....over

Week 3.....+4F (+4F).....under

Week 4....+2F  (+5F).....under

Week 5....+1F (+4F)  (TTidbits).....over

Week 6....0F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn

Week 1........dry

Week 2........dry

Week 3........normal

Week 4........normal

Week 5........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6........normal (TTidbits)

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Canadian Weeklies starting 4/8.  The ultimate yawn.

Temperature:  near normal every week. 

Precipitation:  near normal every week.

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 4/8
 

Week 1..........-NAO (finally) / +EPO / Neutral PNA / Highest pos anomalies VA ewd.

Week 2..........+EPO / -PNA (SE ridge) / Unraveling -NAO / Highest pos anomalies western Atlantic

Week 3......... -NAO E? / Stout -PNA / +EPO  Highest Pos anomalies Great Lakes into our area

Week 4..........-NAO / +EPO / weakening -PNA /  Highest Pos anomalies southern Ontario

Week 5..........-EPO / +PNA / -NAO E /  Highest Pos anomalies western Great Lakes

Week 6..........-EPO / +PNA / -NAO E /  Highest Pos anomalies western NW Territories

 

 

Week 1 verification: ....-3F (+2F)....over

                                         Actual 0F (not great 3F error was closer with week 2 than week 1).    Euro n/a

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....+3F (+5F)......over

Week 2.....+1F (+4F).....over

Week 3.....+1F (+2F).....over

Week 4....+3F  (+1F).....under

Week 5....+1F (0F)  (TTidbits).....over

Week 6....+2F (TTidbits).....under

 

Pcpn

Week 1........normal

Week 2........wet

Week 3........dry

Week 4........normal

Week 5........dry (TTidbits)

Week 6........normal (TTidbits)

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last monday's euro weeklies never updated on weatherbell

 

here are thursday's

week 1 +3

week 2 -2

week 3 -1

week 4 0

week 5 +1

week 6 +1

precip for the 46 day period is above normal by a good bit

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Canadian Weeklies starting 4/15.  A near yawn.

Temperature:  Above normal week 1.  Near normal weeks 2 through 4. 

Precipitation:  Wet week 1.   Near normal weeks 2 through 4.  

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 4/15
 

Week 1..........+++EPO / Neutral PNA (ridge/trof/ridge conus) / -NAO E  Highest pos anomalies western Atlantic

Week 2..........++EPO / -NAO E/ Neutral PNA  Highest pos anomalies Cali & Mid Atlantic

Week 3..........+EPO / +NAO / -PNA  Highest pos anomalies Hudson Bay

Week 4..........+EPO / -NAO / +PNA  Near normal heights here!  Highest pos anomalies Canadian & Conus Northern Rockies

Week 5......... -EPO /  Neutral PNA / -NAO  Highest Pos anomalies  northern Canada.

Week 6......... -EPO /  Neutral PNA / -NAO  Highest Pos anomalies Great Lakes & Ontario Canada

 

Week 1 verification: ....+3F (+5F)......over

                                         Actual +10F (awful 7F week 1 error).    Euro n/a

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....+2F (+1F)......over

Week 2......0F (+1F).......over

Week 3......0F (+3F).......under

Week 4......0F  (+1F).....under

Week 5....+2F (+2F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....+2F (TTidbits).....over

 

Pcpn

Week 1........wet

Week 2........dry

Week 3........normal

Week 4........wet

Week 5........dry (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

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