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tombo82685

CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

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Wanted to make a new thread for this since the other was way to long. 

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11 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Wanted to make a new thread for this since the other was way to long. 

I can't find the older thread. 

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28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I can't find the older thread. 

With the way the euro weeklies looked Monday night maybe Tom deleted it or the Russians hacked us

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41 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I can't find the older thread. 

That’s cause I deleted it. What do you need 

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48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That’s cause I deleted it. What do you need 

Lol the thread.  I could still do a spreadsheet on the year.  Chances are I wont,  but I do seriously need (if possible) the last CFS2 weekly post.

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10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Lol the thread.  I could still do a spreadsheet on the year.  Chances are I wont,  but I do seriously need (if possible) the last CFS2 weekly post.

well thats adios. I thought I read a while back you really don't even do a sheet for the weeklies once it gets past week 3 or 4 because it's always smoothed over

week 1 -3

week 2 +1

week 3 0

week 4 +1

week 5 +3

week 6 +2

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

well thats adios. I thought I read a while back you really don't even do a sheet for the weeklies once it gets past week 3 or 4 because it's always smoothed over

week 1 -3

week 2 +1

week 3 0

week 4 +1

week 5 +3

week 6 +2

Yeah it is kind of lame past week 2 with raw numbers.  That is ok, one less spread sheet to maintain and I did internally stopped doing it in July.

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Weeklies were awful from mid month on. 2002-2003 is my main analog still, mid to late December looks rough but hopefully the weeklies are underoing the mjo by years end. 

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week 1 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. Mean trough in the east, below normal hgts, flow from yukon

week 2 +epo/-enao/neutral pna/+ao. Abv normal hgts, tpv between siberia and AK. Flow from OR

week 3 -nao/+pna/+ao/+epo. tpv over siberia now, allows hgts to raise on west coast. flow from OR, abv normal hgts.

week 4 +epo/+pna/+ao/+nao. Aleutain trough, should be more signal of eastern trough. Normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 5 +epo/-ao/+pna/+nao. Aleutian trough, below normal hgts in the east now, flow from Canada

week 6 -epo/+pna/-ao/-enao. Aleutian trough, below normal hgts, flow from Canada

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -4

week 2 -1

week 3 +1

week 4 0

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

Lol and 3 days ago weenies we’re canceling December because of this same model 

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Canadian Weeklies starting on 12/3:

 

Temperatures

Weeks 1 & 2....below

Weeks 3 & 4....near normal

 

Pcpn

Weeks 1 thru 4 all near normal.  Some drier spots around PHL weeks 1 & 2.

 

 

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CFS2 Monday Weeklies
 

Week 1....Rex Block West Coast / East Coast Trof

Week 2....Eastern Pacific Trof, Rockies Centric Ridge, -NAO

Weeks 3 & 4....Same theme, more amplitude, some below normal heights SE.  +NAO til the end.

Weeks 5 & 6....Retrograding pattern, Aleutian Trof, West Coast Ridge Week 6.

 

Temperatures (Previous Monday in Parenthesis)

Week 1.....0F (+1F).....under

Week 2....-2F (0F).......over.  I thought that was based on a hit, but week 2 is dry, so makes no consistency sense.

Week 3....+3F (+1F)....over

 Week 4...+2F  (+3F)....under (Christmas Week)

Week 5....+3F (+2F)  (TTidbits).....under

Week 6....+2F (TTidbits).....under

 

Pcpn

Week 1........dry

Week 2........dry (ok)

Week 3........normal

Week 4........wet

Week 5........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6........dry (TTidbits)

 

 

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week 1 +pna/-epo/+ao/-enao. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada

week 2 -pna/+ao/+nao/+epo. abv normal hgts, se ridge, flow from TX

Week 3 -ao/-nao/+pna/+epo. normal hgts, below normal just to our west. Mean trough over indy. flow from Canada

week 4 +pna/-epo/+nao/-ao. Big Aleutian trough as the pv that retrograse there from week 2 goes to there. Below normal hgts, flow from canada

week 5 +pna/-epo/-enao/-ao. Big Aleutian trough. normal hgts, below just to our west. Flow from US/canada border

week 6 +pna/---epo/-------------ao/-enao. WAAAAYYYYYYY below normal hgts. I've never seen a week 6 outlook show that much confidence. I wonder if they are sniffing out some sort SSW. Flow is from the Yukon

 

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Thats week 6, I've never seen that, usually it's a smoothed look 

eps_z500a_168h_nh_11.png

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look at tpv get down to Hudson bay  lol. If that happens, gigi would be really happy

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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

look at tpv get down to Hudson bay  lol. If that happens, gigi would be really happy

Tony on New Years Eve??

DF347536-2672-4A2B-9B59-7C7B8A0CD622.jpeg

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I suspect weeks 3 through 6 would be colder if that 500 pattern verified. As good as possibile with a quick recovery from the mid month thaw. 

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16 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -5

week 2 0

week 3 +2

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 -3

-3 week 6 is almost the equivalent of -20 week 1.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

-3 week 6 is almost the equivalent of -20 week 1.

Do you like that?

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week 1 neutral pna/+ao/+epo/+nao. Below normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 2 neutral nao/-ao/+epo/-pna. Se ridge look, above normal hgts, flow from southwest US

week 3 +pna/-ao/-enao/neutral epo. Still some residual se ridge with mean trough building over miss river. Aleutian trough, so weeklies might be off on placement of that trough, would think more on east coast Abv normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 4 +ao/-enao/ neutral epo/+pna. Aleutian trough,  trough over the east. Flow from Canada

week 5 +pna/-ao/-enao/-epo. Aleutian trough, below normal hgts in the east. Flow from Canada

week 6 -ao/-epo/-enao/+pna. Aleutian trough, below normal hgts, flow from canada

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