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Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion

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This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png.fcda72ba8d3a8f36832c3b5f600ce779.png

Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7?  Yup.  That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png.fcda72ba8d3a8f36832c3b5f600ce779.png

Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7?  Yup.  That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning.

Do you like that?

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png.fcda72ba8d3a8f36832c3b5f600ce779.png

Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7?  Yup.  That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning.

That's got storm written all over it.  

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Way out in time but seriously

 

eps_z500a_exnamer_61.png

yJ7SC.gif

looks like a "down and out" route vs. up the coast, but it's probably better off this early in the season considering climo and ocean temps

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The block to end all blocks.   Watch the lows repeatedly hit the wall and retrograde back.  If that block comes to fruition, WOW.  That will be a flow buckler and help keep systems under us.  

fv3p_z500a_atl_fh216-384 (1).gif

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On 11/8/2018 at 7:27 AM, tombo82685 said:

If I was to draw what I think the mjo will do, this is my best guess right now. The Canadian MJO outlook matches what I'm thinking best

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

While I've had my fair share of failure outlooks and I've taken ownership of them. You also gotta highlight your success's and I think this one is pretty good, though I may be off on the amplitude. 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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So Tom, I guess what you're saying is to sharpen and oil up my snow shovels and buy some barrels of salt?

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4 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

So Tom, I guess what you're saying is to sharpen and oil up my snow shovels and buy some barrels of salt?

if that EPS pattern comes true, thats a snow storm pattern with lows tracking under us. 

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This euro is probably a big time outlier in this, but gosh do I pray for this. Frozen turkeys on Thanksgiving? 12z euro had an early morning high after midnight, but by afternoon burbs drop to the twenties, philly to 30

ecmwf_t2m_anom_ma_26.png

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

if that EPS pattern comes true, thats a snow storm pattern with lows tracking under us. 

So glad you didn’t have to ban yourself, especially when you talk dirty like this 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

This euro is probably a big time outlier in this, but gosh do I pray for this. Frozen turkeys on Thanksgiving? 12z euro had an early morning high after midnight, but by afternoon burbs drop to the twenties, philly to 30

ecmwf_t2m_anom_ma_26.png

Yet another ridge slowing on approach, look at this progression

ecmwf_z500a_us_fh144_trend.gif

ecmwf_T850_us_fh144_trend (1).gif

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

This euro is probably a big time outlier in this, but gosh do I pray for this. Frozen turkeys on Thanksgiving? 12z euro had an early morning high after midnight, but by afternoon burbs drop to the twenties, philly to 30

ecmwf_t2m_anom_ma_26.png

I don't know why you like Barney other than to see my figs die die die.  :(

The reason it snowed yesterday was because those silly 510s thicknesses predicted by the GFS never materialized.  Heck the lowest thickness was 541.  Then again the silly 510s thicknesses the GFS once predicted for this weekend aren't happening either and not much else either. 

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I don't know why you like Barney other than to see my figs die die die.  :(

The reason it snowed yesterday was because those silly 510s thicknesses predicted by the GFS never materialized.  Heck the lowest thickness was 541.  Then again the silly 510s thicknesses the GFS once predicted for this weekend aren't happening either and not much else either. 

I enjoy the cold just like you do

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17 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Yet another ridge slowing on approach, look at this progression

 

 

eps caved to that Idea too. Man I hope that is right. Be awesome to have a bitter thanksgiving. 

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Gigi when seeing eps a day and a half agoKPHL_2018111512_eps_min_max_15.png.5e6054d253ff9e6d0e433c79bfa26385.png

DearSoggyGrasshopper-small.gif.578a75300302245660b9da3a6f00a8c9.gif

then the next run of the eps, when the 50s get cut back a little

KPHL_2018111600_eps_min_max_15.png.1a5e1ea5a6f5ad8eab6171ea5b7e00b7.png

tenor.gif.c27d64963f33924a522806b4e5438e75.gif

Then today's run, when the 50s get dwindled even further

KPHL_2018111612_eps_min_max_15.png.ae148c0022d4052bfd8959f0e22b17c1.png

RfI.gif.59e9d4875e2d9a8883c5f88849c3687e.gif

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Gigi when seeing eps a day and a half ago

I miss the official Gigi NWS posts but at least we have the retired one!  :)

 

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eps 5 day mean for end of nov into start of dec

eps_z500a_5d_exnamer_61.png

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just keeps getting better. Granted the high for the day would be upper 30s to near 40 in the city right after midnight, but what a thing of beauty for the day. Daytime highs stuck in the 20s. Figs roasting on frozen tundra

thursday AM

ecmwf_t2min_philadelphia_23.png.df48c8ad15e84e6f62bf064bcd3df929.png

Thanksgiving dinner time

ecmwf_t2max_philadelphia_24.png.556c8bba23e41a5d1f9d26da86aca13d.png

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Tombo' s unbridled exuberance for Barney cold on Thanksgiving will be further fueled by the GFS jumping on board.

Models have been showing sharp cold like this in the mid-range then scaled back as Barney gets denied entry by border patrol.  This Tuesday is an example, more of a glancing blow

gfs_T850_eus_fh132_trend.gif

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