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Rainshadow

2018-19 Cold Season Model QPF/Snowfall Fcstg Performance/Verification. April 17th Non-Event. In Race To Bottom GEFS "Won"; Good At Forecasting Nothing EC/EPS Tied For First.

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On 4/11/2019 at 6:10 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/10 0z: .27

4/10 12z: .3

4/11 0z: .3

4/11 12z: .53

eps

4/10 0z: .25

4/10 12z: .25

4/11 0z: .4

4/11 12z: .53

For this event we will need the 00z/12th & 12z/12th run to finish.

Until the MON CFP event starting with the 12z run yesterday (12th) until it starts raining at PHL.  GFS atrocious with phase I.

 

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euro

4/12 12z:  .8

4/13 0z: .6

4/14 0z: .27

4/14 12z: .3

4/15 0z: .96

eps

4/12 12z: .6

4/13 0z: .6

4/14 0z: .4

4/14 12z: .4

4/15 0z: .82

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On 4/12/2019 at 6:35 AM, Rainshadow said:

For phase II from 12z Saturday and beyond, we can start with the 12z run today.

I was so looking forward to the FV3 eliminating runs like this by now. 

ddsdsdsd.JPG.464e464126d00583552f6e6869f77309.JPG

thing of beauty

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Another Thing Of Pukey By The OP GFS.  It is limping to the finish line. There was heavier rain around the area, but nothing like (the equivalent of) forecasting a shut down top ten snow storm for PHL and getting an advisory level event.  The OP EC continues to rack up the winning points.

NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx

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45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

this has failure written all over it with convective elements

If tonight's event is that deeply convective with no uniformity of precipitation around PHL, we will toss it. Direct convection pretty much renders qpf skill-less. 

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On 4/13/2019 at 2:34 PM, tombo82685 said:

thing of beauty

So far it has measured in four 3 hr segments at PHL, so it has to only rain for the next 48 consecutive hours for the GFS to get the duration right.

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57 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

If tonight's event is that deeply convective with no uniformity of precipitation around PHL, we will toss it. Direct convection pretty much renders qpf skill-less. 

first round doesnt look to convective, but 2nd part before daybreak looks like it will

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

first round doesnt look to convective, but 2nd part before daybreak looks like it will

The Philly amount before this last batch was not that outrageous or out of sync with other stations, so we can move forward.  We can include the 00z run on the 15th also, was just a trace before.

 

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On 4/12/2019 at 6:35 AM, Rainshadow said:

For phase II from 12z Saturday and beyond, we can start with the 12z run today.

I was so looking forward to the FV3 eliminating runs like this by now. 

ddsdsdsd.JPG.464e464126d00583552f6e6869f77309.JPG

Predicted twenty 3hr periods of measurable rain @PHL.  Observed seven.

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On 4/13/2019 at 2:33 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/12 12z:  .8

4/13 0z: .6

4/14 0z: .27

4/14 12z: .3

4/15 0z: .96

eps

4/12 12z: .6

4/13 0z: .6

4/14 0z: .4

4/14 12z: .4

4/15 0z: .82

Well lucky us with that back door front tonight, both the SFEF & GFS decided to go moist (😮) on the 12z run on the 14th. Can you go back to that on the Euro?  We can end it with the 00z run tonight (17th).

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Not going to lambast model qpf much with a majority convective event.  The PHL precip amount was not an isolated very high or low value, so decided to evaluate this event. This is the 52nd qpf event (forecast or observed), so in terms of model weighting, it is going to carry less than 2% of the final grade.  Granted we may have another convective precip event on Friday.  It is surprising the models were as good as they were at PHL.  The GFS came in first and the NAM in last.  Ironical that the GFS did better with a fairly convective event, meanwhile the previous event that was not convective at all, it stunk to high heaven.

NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx

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On 4/13/2019 at 2:33 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/12 12z:  .8

4/13 0z: .6

4/14 0z: .27

4/14 12z: .3

4/15 0z: .96

eps

4/12 12z: .6

4/13 0z: .6

4/14 0z: .4

4/14 12z: .4

4/15 0z: .82

I am guessing EC/EPS were all zeroes and it is a race to the bottom for the GFS or SREF.

Anyway the real precip threat with the next system can be started with the 00z run this morning (the 17th).

 

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I am guessing EC/EPS were all zeroes and it is a race to the bottom for the GFS or SREF.

Anyway the real precip threat with the next system can be started with the 00z run this morning (the 17th).

 

yup 0.00 mr blutarsky

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On 4/17/2019 at 12:20 PM, tombo82685 said:

yup 0.00 mr blutarsky

In the race to the bottom of forecasting something out of nothing the GEFS lost. The good at forecasting nothing EC/EPS won.

We might have to add a second event under the closed low for Easter Sunday.  I will let you know.  Chances are for today's/tonight's event we might have to include 00z/20th; we will see.

 

 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

What time am I starting with this current event?

00z/17th run.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

00z/17th run.

eeek, can't do 0z 17th, already past. Earliest I can do is 17th 12z

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31 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

eeek, can't do 0z 17th, already past. Earliest I can do is 17th 12z

Ok.  let's do that.  I will let you know as to whether or not to include 00z run this evening.

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euro

4/17 12z: .87

4/18 0z: 1.15

4/18 12z: .98

4/19 0z: .62

4/19 12z: .73

eps

4/17 12z: .8

4/18 0z: .62

4/18 12z: .78

4/19 0z: .62

4/19 12z:  .6

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/17 12z: .87

4/18 0z: 1.15

4/18 12z: .98

4/19 0z: .62

4/19 12z: .73

eps

4/17 12z: .8

4/18 0z: .62

4/18 12z: .78

4/19 0z: .62

4/19 12z:  .6

That will do it for this event. I will let you know about the closed low segment.

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13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

4/17 12z: .87

4/18 0z: 1.15

4/18 12z: .98

4/19 0z: .62

4/19 12z: .73

eps

4/17 12z: .8

4/18 0z: .62

4/18 12z: .78

4/19 0z: .62

4/19 12z:  .6

The closing low cyclogenesis that the Euro is hog wild about can be started with the 00z run this morning (20th/00z) and run thru 12z Tuesday.  I have a vested interest in a dry Monday & Tuesday.  That being said this reeks of the Euro's slow/westward bias and might corroborate that it is a much better stand alone model at forecasting nothing than a stand alone model forecasting alot of something.  I do have crow in our freezer ready to be cooked/eaten in case (or when) I am wrong. 

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